Wednesday, September 30, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 29, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 29, 2015:

Total Attendance: 9,150

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 76
  • Attendance: 9,150
  • Starting Pitcher: Matt Moore
  • Opponent: Miami Marlins
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Adam Conley
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,489
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 9,150
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,110
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 15,148
  • Promotions (if any): None
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Tuesday, September 29, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 28, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 28, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Monday, September 28, 2015

Thoughts on MLB reaction to Braves in Pinellas

Last week, Pinellas County and the Atlanta Braves sent shockwaves through the business of baseball in Tampa Bay. By filing a proposal for land in the Toytown area, the Braves expressed their desire to move their Spring Training location from Disney's Wide World of Sports to Pinellas County.

The day after the announcement, I wrote that the Braves proposal was a bad idea for three reasons: Demographics, Economics, and Territory Rights.

Now we can add a 4th: Because MLB said so.

On Friday, MLB released the following statement:
“Earlier this week, Major League Baseball and the Tampa Bay Rays learned of the St. Petersburg Sports Park proposal for the first time.  Major League Baseball appreciates the support that it has received for the construction of Spring Training facilities throughout the State of Florida. The most pressing need, however, is the construction of a Major League-quality facility for the Rays.

“Major League Baseball is committed to working with the Rays to secure a new ballpark in cooperation with the Tampa Bay region.  This can only happen with the support of local political and business leaders.”

That is MLB swinging the hammer.

Last week, I wrote:
If I was a betting man, I would say the Rays have already blocked this from happening. Or they have their legal team ready play the territory card. And I would also bet the Rays are not happy with Pinellas County for opening up the bidding and allowing the Braves to place a bid.

Given the wording of the MLB press release, it is apparent the Rays complained.

Where I was off however, was the perception of territorial rights. According to Charlie Frago of the Tampa Bay Times, territorial rights don't apply to Spring Training.
Major League Baseball also declined to comment on Atlanta's proposal, but did confirm that a league rule prohibiting teams from encroaching on one another's territory doesn't apply to spring training.

How territorial rights don't apply to Spring Training is beyond me. It absolutely should. The question isn't "does one training facility encroach on another?", such as in the case of Dunedin and Clearwater. The question is "does Spring Training have an economic and market impact on regional Major League clubs?"

The answer to that is YES.

Let's look at this logically, not traditionally. (And by the way, if "that's the way it has always been" is the reason, you might as well play 81 daytime doubleheaders with pitchers throwing underhand to batters wearing wool uniforms.)

There is only a certain amount of revenue in a market. Additional revenue arrives via tourism. There are usually upper levels, lower levels, and averages to tourism. Add tourism and local revenue, and you get the total revenue possible for an attraction designed to attract tourists, such as Spring Training or Busch Gardens.

But here is the problem: not every visitor to Busch Gardens or Spring Training is a tourist. We don't have many overall studies, but the latest in 2009 stated Clearwater and Dunedin had the highest tourist rates (nearly 75%) and the Yankees were closer to 40%. Given the higher Yankees attendance, these numbers are not valued the same.

Let's estimate Spring Training attendance is typically 55% tourists. That means 45% of Spring Training attendees are local and 45% of all ticket revenue is local dollars going to teams that reside outside of Tampa Bay, not to the Rays.

If you base how a team can survive on the market's annual discretionary income, how is their spending in February and March not competition? Local fans' potential to spend doesn't magically regenerate at the end of Spring Training. If they bought tickets March 31, they have less money to spend on April 1.

(For those who bring up the Cactus League and the Diamondbacks, yes, more teams train the Phoenix area than near the Rays and Marlins. But can't all three teams have the same complaint? Perhaps the Diamondbacks are less impacted because Phoenix is nearly twice the size of Tampa Bay (5 million to 2.8 million). However, Phoenix is also on the list of cities that are economically stretched too thin to support all their sports.)

There is also evidence Spring Training is not the boon to tourism some make it out to be. From the Palm Beach Post in 2014:
In Florida markets that have no spring training or lost teams, tourism spending jumped 21 percent from March 2008 to March 2013, according to a Palm Beach Post analysis of data from the state Office of Economic & Demographic Research. In the metro areas that host the Grapefruit League’s 15 teams, tourism spending rose only 15 percent during the same time.

So if locals spend their money on baseball that is not the Major League product, and Spring Training is not a magic attraction for tourists, then why is it in the same region as the team with the lowest attendance in Major League Baseball?

How is that fair to the Major League product? How is that not diverting funds that could be in the pocket of the Tampa Bay Rays?

Despite this simple economic logic, Pinellas politicians remain ignorant. From the Tampa Bay Times:
Many county leaders embraced the Braves project. One of them, County Commissioner Ken Welch, said he didn't see why the two prospects were mutually exclusive.

He'd like to see a deal struck with the Rays. But another spring training in Pinellas County is a big deal, too.

"We can multitask," he said. "We can't say no to all other future opportunities."

Yes, you can say no. And you should. Doing otherwise is disingenuous to the Major League team, which should be your priority if you consider the region a "Major League region".

The idea of where to spend public dollars will only get more interesting next year when the agreement between the City of Dunedin and the Blue Jays expires. The Blue Jays want upgrades to their Spring Training facilities. What if Pinellas County allows funds for expansion of the Blue Jays facility in order to keep them in the area?

Isn't that violating MLB's focus for the region and their aforementioned statement? Would MLB be ok with maintaining the status quo? Or do they want the Blue Jays to move out so they can slowly clear the area for the Rays?

I would be very surprised if the Blue Jays Spring Training had a bigger economic impact and return on investment than the proposed Braves sports megaplex. Losing the Blue Jays might hurt the City of Dunedin, but its effect on the region as a whole would probably be negligible.

As a reminder, most of the other regional Spring Training agreements end in the 2020s, just before the Rays use agreement with Tropicana Field ends. Is the MLB plan to move all the teams out, help the Rays get a new stadium, and allow the Rays a monopoly in the region similar to that of other small market teams such as Pittsburgh, Kansas City, or Milwaukee?

I'm afraid we haven't heard the end of politicians suffocating and sabotaging the Tampa Bay baseball market.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 27, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 27, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 26, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 26, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Saturday, September 26, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 25, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 25, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Friday, September 25, 2015

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance Review: August 2015

Welcome to our fifth monthly review of the Tampa Rays 2015 attendance. This post will look at attendance in games played from August 7, 2015 to August 30, 2015.
  • Total August 2015 Tampa Bay Rays home attendance: 197,551
  • August 2015 Home Games: 11
  • Average attendance per game: 17,959
  • Highest attendance: 31,042 on August 8th
  • Lowest attendance: 9,205 on August 26th
  • Average August game time (9 inning games only): 2 hours, 58 minutes
  • Highest attended series: 26,956 per game vs Mets, August 7-9
  • Lowest attended series: 9,404 per game vs Twins, August 25-27
  • Competing events:
    • Tampa Bay Bucs preseason game – Raymond James Stadium, August 29, August 24
  • Total Tampa Bay Minor League Baseball August attendance: 65,310
  • Tampa Bay Minor League attendance per game: 1,256 (52 games)

From 2007 to 2014, average August attendance has been almost exactly annual average (20,550 vs 20,145). In 2011 and 2012, August was the worst attended month but in 2012 and 2013, it was the best attended month.

Comparing August 2015 with previous years

The following chart compares August 2015 average attendance to average August attendance in recent years.




August 2015 per game average attendance was 15% worse (3,239 fans per game) than the August 2014 per game average. August 2015 was the fourth worst August per game average since 2007, topping 2007, 2011, and 2012.

The following chart depicts games played in August, wins and losses, and the average August attendance.




Weekdays vs Weekends

Let's now look at the Rays August attendance on weekdays (Mon-Thurs) and weekends (Fri-Sun). As I have pointed out before, the Rays usually have one of the biggest differences in Major League Baseball in regards to weekday versus weekend attendance.

This chart shows the Rays average weekday attendance in August since 2007.




The following graph depicts the above chart.




It is interesting that August's weekday attendance is very similar to April's. Both had a large peak in 2009 and then leveled off. April however, had a bump in 2013 and we see August had a bump in 2014. August also has a unfortunate similarity with June in that both months had their lowest weekday attendance during the Sternberg ownership era.

Looking at weekday attendance month-to-month, the Rays saw average weekday attendance drop drastically between July and August 2015. 5,085 less fans per game saw the Rays during week in August.
  • July 2015 weekday average attendance: 17,096
  • August 2015 weekday average attendance: 12,011

However, August 2015 exceeded June 2015 by 341 fans per game (11,670 to 12,011).

The following chart shows Rays average weekend attendance in August since 2007.




The following graph depicts the chart:




In 2013 and 2015, average August weekend attendance was 90% great than August weekday attendance. There is seemingly no pattern however to the weekend/weekday split.

On a positive note, Rays average weekend only decreased 115 fans per game from 2014. And August 2015 weekend attendance was greater than August weekend attendance in 2007, 2011, and 2012.

Conclusion:

Although August attendance was 15% lower in 2015 than 2014, Rays 2015 average attendance did increase in August. We can definitely credit that increase in part to the series against the Mets, which drew very well and included the Rays first non-Opening Day sell-out.

Despite the increase, August did not outdraw July for the third year in a row. This was probably due to August's low weekday numbers, which were 5,000 fans per game lower than July. Keep in mind, however, weekday attendance in July was aided by Camp Day promotions throughout the month.

On the subject of weekdays, the more worrisome August trend is the decrease in weekday attendance in 2015 - nearly 1,500 less fans per weekday than 2011 to 2013. Considering the Rays continued the Honor Pass ticket program from military veterans and still saw attendance drop to record lows in troubling.

As we go into September, the contention factor comes into play. If the Rays are in contention for the wildcard spot, we could see interest and attendance increase. If they are not, attendance will probably be somewhere worse than July and August, but better than May or June.

The Rays also have a few regular season games in October in 2015. Those games will deny September attendance a final home series and the associated promotions that usually draw a respectable crowd. This year, for example, the Rays final post-game concert, featuring world-famous DJ Steve Aoki, will be on Saturday, October 3rd.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 24, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 24, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Thursday, September 24, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 23, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 23, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Wednesday, September 23, 2015

Spring Training in Toytown is a bad idea

According to the Tampa Bay Times and Tampa Tribune, former MLB player Gary Sheffield is among a group of investors who put in a proposal to Pinellas County to build a Spring Training and baseball complex in Toytown. Via the Tribune:
SportsPark Partners LLC is one of three groups to submit plans to Pinellas County’s Economic Development Office to develop the sprawling 240 acres in the gateway area off of Interstate 275 near Roosevelt Boulevard.

The SportsPark group envisions a $662-million international professional and amateur sports complex that would include the Braves and possibly a second Major League Baseball team for spring training.

This is the second time Sheffield and other investors hoped to lure the Braves to Tampa Bay. Last year, Sheffield and others were planning a baseball complex in the Wesley Chapel area north of Tampa.

Last year, I thought another Spring Training complex in Tampa Bay was a bad idea. This year, I think it is a horrible idea for three major reasons: Demographics, Economics, and most importantly, Territorial Rights.

The final of which could make even opening the bidding a very bad gamble for the powers that be in Pinellas County.

Demographics

When I wrote about Sheffield's plan last year, I looked at it from a demographic angle:
Adding the Braves to the area would either create new Braves fans or solidify fandom in a market the Rays really need to penetrate and capture. That would be five Spring Training complexes in the Tampa Bay area. Even if we assume most Spring Training revenue is generated from tourists, there is still a presence and a small amount of local dollars going to a team that is not the local Major League squad.

And given that the Braves used to be the South's number one team, there are probably still some Braves fans in the Florida. So fans coming to see the Braves might not be Atlanta tourists. They would be Floridians seeing their favorite team. Floridians would not likely root for the Major League team if their favorite team trains nearby.

(By the way, a new Public Policy Poll released this week has the Braves tied with the Rays as Florida's favorite team.)

Economics

In May, I wrote a post for Rays Index that described how overstretched the Tampa Bay market is in regards to sports. According to the economic data I used, Tampa Bay is the fifth-most overstretched sports market in the US. And the study didn't account for non-MLS soccer, arena football, Minor League Baseball, or Spring Training.

Without regurgitating the economic numbers, Tampa Bay does not have the economic capacity to sustain yet another sports facility. Even with the injection of tourists, the market is too small. If you put a McDonalds on every corner, eventually some will fail. Even Starbucks had to slow down growth.

Territorial Rights

Although there are four teams training in the Tampa Bay area, none of the four are within the Rays territorial area as defined by MLB Territorial Rule 52. I've written about Territorial Rule 52 here and here.

Part of the rule states:
No team may play home games within 15 miles from the boundary of the home territory of another team, unless specifically expected.

And ...
Overlap between MLB and MiL team – (1) neither club’s ballpark may be within 15 miles of the boundary of another home territory; and (2) home territories may not be shared without consent of the MLB club unless the ballpark is 50+ mile from the MLB club’s boundaries.

Toytown is 9.7 miles from Tropicana Field.

If I was a betting man, I would say the Rays have already blocked this from happening. Or they have their legal team ready play the territory card. And I would also bet the Rays are not happy with Pinellas County for opening up the bidding and allowing the Braves to place a bid.

Usually in stadium negotiations, teams get cities to the negotiating table by flirting with other cities. In Tampa Bay, it seems the county is trying to get the Rays to the table by flirting with other teams.

According to the Tampa Bay Times, St. Petersburg council member Karl Nurse is open to hitting the Rays where it hurts.
"The Braves — at one point — were the team of the South," Nurse said. "Bringing spring training back here I think is a helpful thing."

That could backfire in a very bad way.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 22, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 22, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 21, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 21, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Monday, September 21, 2015

Exploring the Yankees attendance decline in Tampa Bay

As the Yankees and Mets squared off in one of the biggest series of the weekend, writers throughout New York discussed the sudden rise of Mets fans and Mets hype throughout New York. Some are even asking whether or not New York has switched hats from a Yankees city to a Mets city.

The popularity of New York teams has a direct effect on the business of baseball in Florida. According to my demographic research last year, there are over 2 million New York baseball fans living in Florida. That is a little less than 10% of the total population of the state.

A majority of these fans can be divided into 4 different groups:
  • Yankees fans from New York living in Florida
  • Mets fans from New York living in Florida
  • Yankees fans from Florida
  • Mets fans from Florida
According to the Facebook/New York Times 2014 demographic survey, the Yankees are the second most popular team in the Tampa Bay area. They are the favorite team of 17% of Hillsborough County and 9% of Pinellas County.

For the Mets, their Florida popularity can usually only be measured by their spring training attendance at Port St. Lucie. This year, however, the Mets visited the Rays for the first time since 2012. Earlier in the season, I predicted the Mets would draw well at Tropicana Field. That was one of the few things I was right about in my first attempt to predict attendance.

The Mets and Rays three game series at Tropicana Field averaged 26,956 fans per game and included the Rays only non-Opening Day sellout of the season. Based on current weekend attendance, the Mets series drew an average of 8,000 more people per game than the average Rays weekend game.

With attendance at Citi Field increasing 17.6% according to the New York Times and nearly 5,000 people per game seeing the Mets, there is no doubt the New York National League team has become more popular. And Rays weekend attendance benefited.

Meanwhile, Yankees baseball in Tampa Bay has been much more interesting.

Although Yankees Spring Training set a 10-year total attendance high and per game Spring attendance increased, attendance for Yankees versus Rays games at Tropicana Field has never been worse. The following chart looks at Yankees versus Rays attendance at Tropicana Field during the Sternberg Ownership Era.




From 2014 to 2015, attendance at Tropicana Field for Yankees versus Rays games dropped 44%. That is a huge decrease and worth exploring. While Rays attendance has decreased across the board, the decrease in attendance for games versus the Yankees stands out.

We also saw a huge drop in Tampa Yankees attendance this year (-20%). While it wasn't a good year for the Florida State League overall, the Tampa Yankees had the biggest attendance drop in the league.

Could attendance for Yankees games at Tropicana Field be tied to Yankees attendance in New York? Could Yankees fans in Florida feel the same about seeing their team as their fellow fans in New York?

According to the New York Times,
The Yankees’ paid attendance at home is averaging 39,537 a game, down 5.6 percent from the average at this time last year, according to Baseball-Reference.com. The Yankees, who trail first-place Toronto by three games in the American League East, have never averaged below 40,000 fans a game since moving to the new Yankee Stadium in 2009.

And Yankees TV ratings are also down.
But the Yankees, who averaged 454,000 viewers a game in 2007, are drawing only 256,000 this season, a 10 percent decrease from 2014 after a comparable number of games.

Could Yankees fans lack of enthusiasm be a national phenomenon? Finding out this answer would require a lot of research, from exploring ratings for Yankees national broadcasts to looking at road attendance for Yankees games in every stadium and calculating percentage above or below average attendance per day.

Far beyond the purview of this site.

But if Rays fans are attending games 10-15% less in 2015 than they did in 2014 and the same amount of opposing fans attended, attendance versus the visiting Yankees should have still been over 20,000 per game.

Without polling every fan in attendance, we will never know how many fans for each team attended each game. But if looking at Yankees attendance and ratings in New York is any indication, we can safely make the assumption Yankees fans are not as interested in seeing the Yankees as they were last year, especially in Tropicana Field.

The Yankees presence in Tampa will continue to loom large as long as the City of Tampa considers the Yankees a "hometown" team and as long as the Tampa Sports Authority is personally invested in the success of Steinbrenner Field. But perhaps this momentary lack of interest in the Yankees could allow the Rays to penetrate the market of Florida-born fans looking for a team to root for.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 20, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 20, 2015:

Total Attendance: 17,801

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 75
  • Attendance: 17,801
  • Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi
  • Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,573
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,446
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 18,885
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,929
  • Promotions (if any): DJ Kitty knit hat
  • Other events: Tampa Bay Lightning FanFest - Amalie Arena - attendance: 8,810

No other local games scheduled.

Sunday, September 20, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 19, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 19, 2015:

Total Attendance: 17,053

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 74
  • Attendance: 17,053
  • Starting Pitcher: Erasmo Ramirez
  • Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Wei-Yin Chen
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,543
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,407
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 21,403
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 14,813
  • Promotions (if any): Jake Odorizzi bobblehead / post-game concert: Sister Hazel
  • Other events: Tampa Bay Rowdies soccer game - Al Lang Stadium (attendance: 6,135)

No other local games scheduled.

Saturday, September 19, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 18, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 18, 2015:

Total Attendance: 10,697

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 73
  • Attendance: 10,697
  • Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly
  • Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Tyler Wilson
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,522
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,451
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 14,989
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 11,843
  • Promotions (if any): None
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Friday, September 18, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 17, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 17, 2015:

Total Attendance: 9,617

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 72
  • Attendance: 9,617
  • Starting Pitcher: Matt Moore
  • Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Chris Tillman
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,589
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 18,416
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 11,405
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,348
  • Promotions (if any): None
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Thursday, September 17, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 16, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 16, 2015:

Total Attendance: 13,299

Tampa Bay Rays:

  • Team Home Game #: 71

  • Attendance: 13,299

  • Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer

  • Opponent: New York Yankees

  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Luis Severino

  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,673

  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 14,208

  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 14,131

  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,989

  • Promotions (if any): None

  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Wednesday, September 16, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 15, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 15, 2015:

Total Attendance: 13,539

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 70
  • Attendance: 13,539
  • Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi
  • Opponent: New York Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Adam Warren
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,707
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 14,309
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,357
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,849
  • Promotions (if any): None
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Tuesday, September 15, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 14, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 14, 2015:

Total Attendance: 11,940

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 69
  • Attendance: 11,940
  • Starting Pitcher: Erasmo Ramirez
  • Opponent: New York Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: CC Sabathia
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,739
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 14,406
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 13,712
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 14,610
  • Promotions (if any): None
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Monday, September 14, 2015

Comparing the 30-min drive population of Tropicana Field with various Minor League Cities

Way back in February, I wrote an article on Fangraphs that looked for correlation between high weekday/weekend attendance splits and population within 30-minutes of Major League Baseball stadiums.

Although many people had stated it before, by emphasizing weekdays versus weekends, my blog post pushed the importance of the 30-minute population to a new level.

Using this theory, friend of the blog Jacob Rosen, part-time Indians attendance analyst, writer at WFNY.com, and sports business guru, looked at 30-min driving population surrounding a few of the bigger market AAA teams. In order to find this population information, he used freemaptools.com. Jacob sent me this information, and I added some metro population data via wikipedia and calculated the percentage of population within 30 minutes.




(Note: Durham radius includes Raleigh, North Carolina as well. Buffalo's 30 mile radius includes Niagara Falls and several other suburbs.)

Unfortunately, breaking down Minor League Baseball attendance is far more difficult than dissecting Major League attendance. There is no Baseball-Reference.com schedule and results page for the Minor Leagues. So looking at weekend/weekday splits for the above teams would be difficult and a lot of research.

That said, this data shows us something very interesting. Even without looking at attendance, we can see Tropicana Field is in a worse location in regards to local population than several Minor League Ballparks. So when those teams have well-attended promotions and outdraw the Rays on a weekday, there is a decent reason.

It might also be worse torturous study to see if there are any other stadiums in worse locations population-wise as Tropicana Field.

Also, absent location, and not saying it is geographically possible, but if a Rays stadium was located with the average 30-minute population of the above listed cities, 94% of Tampa Bay would be within 30 minutes of the Rays. That would be 2.5 million people.The Major League average is 1.9 million.

The only other cities with 2.5 million or more potential fans within 30-minutes of their stadium:
  • Yankees
  • Mets
  • Angels
  • Dodgers
  • White Sox
  • Cubs
  • Phillies

If fans don't buy tickets to those teams, there are usually other reasons involved, such as performance or opponent.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 13, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 13, 2015:

Total Attendance: 15,402

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 68
  • Attendance: 15,402
  • Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly
  • Opponent: Boston Red Sox
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Rich Hill
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,795
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,235
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 18,984
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 12,225
  • Promotions (if any): Rays superhero cape t-shirt
  • Other events:

No other local games scheduled.

Sunday, September 13, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 12, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 12, 2015:

Total Attendance: 20,698

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 67
  • Attendance: 20,698
  • Starting Pitcher: Matt Moore
  • Opponent: Boston Red Sox
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Rick Porcello
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,800
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,464
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 21,799
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 18,031
  • Promotions (if any): DJ Kitty Window Cling
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Saturday, September 12, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 11, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 11, 2015:

Total Attendance: 14,796

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 66
  • Attendance: 14,796
  • Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer
  • Opponent: Boston Red Sox
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Wade Miley
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,726
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,002
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 15,379
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 17,235
  • Promotions (if any): None
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Friday, September 11, 2015

Florida State League attendance declines in 2015; Tampa Bay area teams fall most

Earlier this week, attendance totals for Minor League Baseball were released. According to MiLB.com, 83 of the 176 teams in MiLB saw attendance increases and overall attendance was the third highest total ever. In 2015, 42,561,445 fans saw Minor League Baseball. That's an average of 241,826 per team.

But there is an untold story in Minor League Baseball's good news. Simple math says that if 83 of 176 saw increases, then 93 either stayed the same or decreased. That's not good. That means growth was not equal across the board, but occurred in only a few key areas. Perhaps new teams or perhaps at new stadiums.

Meanwhile, in the Florida State League, there was more bad news than good in 2015. On the positive side, the Fort Myers Miracle set a new franchise attendance record with an 11% gain and over 133,000 fans in attendance.

And that wraps up the good news.

Overall, Florida State League attendance declined 5.4% from 2014. The follow chart depicts the increase or decrease of each team and the league total.




There is a lot of red on that chart.

Even worse for the purposes of this blog, of the 10 teams whose attendance declined, the top 3 were Tampa Bay area teams.
  • Tampa Yankees: -20.2%
  • Dunedin Blue Jays: -14%
  • Clearwater Threshers: -11.9%

The Bradenton Marauders only declined by 1.6%, which was the second smallest decline of the 10 teams.

Regionally, Minor League attendance was 422,651, the lowest regional total since 361,200 in 2010. 2015 was the first regional decline in attendance since 2009.




A lot more work will have to go into seeing how the Florida State League and its teams stack up to attendance trends across the country. Are there other teams that saw double figure declines? Are there other regions that saw attendance drop across the board as bad as the Tampa Bay area did?

In the next few weeks, I am also going to dive into the attendance of the local Minor League teams. There were a lot of factors that could have played a role in Tampa Bay's regional attendance decline. By looking at monthly trends against past years' attendance, we can try to isolate when the declines occurred.

Were the declines in July and August during the 30-or so days of continuous rain and flooding throughout the Tampa Bay area?

Or

Were the declines during April and May while most area eyes were on the Tampa Bay Lightning?

And what, if any, role might the Rays have played in the decline of Minor League attendance in the Tampa Bay area?

To date, Rays attendance has declined 13%. Not as much as the Tampa Yankees or Dunedin Blue Jays but more than the Clearwater Threshers and Bradenton Marauders.

Are any of these declines related?

Could the regional Minor League teams face the same market obstacles that the Rays do? Are they a canary in the coal mine when it comes to market circumstances?

Hopefully, one day I will be able to answer these and many other attendance questions.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 10, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 10, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Thursday, September 10, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 9, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 9, 2015:

Total Attendance: 1,345

Clearwater Threshers:
  • Team Home Game #: 70 (Playoff game 1)
  • Attendance: 1,345
  • Starting Pitcher: John Richy
  • Opponent: Daytona Tortugas
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Nick Travieso
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 2,723
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 2,486
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 2,035
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 2,294
  • Promotions (if any): Florida State League Playoffs
  • Other events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Wednesday, September 9, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 8, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 8, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Tuesday, September 8, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 7, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 7, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Monday, September 7, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 6, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 6, 2015:

Total Attendance: 3,323

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: 70
  • Attendance: 1,558
  • Starting Pitcher: Gabriel Encinas
  • Opponent: Lakeland Flying Tigers
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Endrys Briceno
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 1,497
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 1,745
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 1,388
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 1,249
  • Promotions (if any): Sunday Family Day
  • Other events: None

Clearwater Threshers:
  • Team Home Game #: 69
  • Attendance: 1,765
  • Starting Pitcher: Matt Imhof
  • Opponent: Dunedin Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Gabryszwski
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 2,723
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 3,008
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 1,518
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 3,461
  • Promotions (if any): Sunday Brunch at the Park

No other games scheduled

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 5, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 5, 2015:

Total Attendance: 8,140

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: 69
  • Attendance: 2,129
  • Starting Pitcher: Dietrich Enns
  • Opponent: Lakeland Flying Tigers
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Kevin Ziomek
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 1,496
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 1,768
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 2,484
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 1,167
  • Promotions (if any): Fireworks / Brett Gardner bobblehead
  • Other events: Tampa Bay Rowdies soccer game - Al Lang Stadium (attendance: 5,630)

Clearwater Threshers:
  • Team Home Game #: 68
  • Attendance: 6,011
  • Starting Pitcher: David Whitehead
  • Opponent: Dunedin Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Dennis Diaz
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 2,738
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 3,146
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 4,335
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 2,211
  • Promotions (if any): Fireworks / Fan Appreciation Night

No other games scheduled

Saturday, September 5, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 4, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 4, 2015:

Total Attendance: 6,033

Bradenton Marauders:
  • Team Home Game #: 71
  • Attendance: 3,643
  • Starting Pitcher: Cody Dickson
  • Opponent: St Lucie Mets
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Logan Taylor
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 1,491
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 1,661
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 2065
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 1,273
  • Promotions (if any): Fireworks / Fan Appreciation Night

Clearwater Threshers:
  • Team Home Game #: 67
  • Attendance: 2,390
  • Starting Pitcher: John Richy
  • Opponent: Dunedin Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Derek Blacksher
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 2,686
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 2,788
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 3,712
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 2,768
  • Promotions (if any): Hunks of Funk post game concert / Fireworks

No other games scheduled

Friday, September 4, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 3, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 3, 2015:

Total Attendance: 1,550

Bradenton Marauders:
  • Team Home Game #: 70
  • Attendance: 886
  • Starting Pitcher: Luis Heredia
  • Opponent: Palm Beach Cardinals
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Scarlyn Reyes
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 1,460
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 1,441
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 962
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 1,077
  • Promotions (if any): Thirsty Thursday

Dunedin Blue Jays:
  • Team Home Game #: 70
  • Attendance: 664
  • Starting Pitcher: Alonzo Gonzalez
  • Opponent: Clearwater Threshers
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Ricardo Pinto
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 798
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 742
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 710
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 663
  • Promotions (if any): Fan Garage Sale

No other games scheduled

Thursday, September 3, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 2, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 2, 2015:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Wednesday, September 2, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 1, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 1, 2015:

Total Attendance: 1,235

Bradenton Marauders:
  • Team Home Game #: 69
  • Attendance: 792
  • Starting Pitcher: Frank Duncan
  • Opponent: Palm Beach Cardinals
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Trey Nielsen
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 1,468
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 1,499
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 966
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 1,326
  • Promotions (if any): 2-for-1 ticket Tuesday

Dunedin Blue Jays:
  • Team Home Game #: 68 / 69
  • Attendance: 443
  • Starting Pitcher: Shane Dawson / Jeremy Gabryszewski
  • Opponent: Tampa Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Jonathan Holder / Gabriel Encinas
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 800
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 978
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 942
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 518 / 708
  • Promotions (if any): None

No other games scheduled

Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - August 31, 2015

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, August 31, 2015:

Total Attendance: 1,026

Bradenton Marauders:
  • Team Home Game #: 68
  • Attendance: 476
  • Starting Pitcher: Felipe Gonzalez
  • Opponent: Palm Beach Cardinals
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Corey Littrell
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 1,479
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 1,578
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 2,283
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 1,649
  • Promotions (if any): None

Dunedin Blue Jays:
  • Team Home Game #: 67
  • Attendance: 550
  • Starting Pitcher: Derek Blacksher
  • Opponent: Tampa Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Dietrich Enns
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 805
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 1,055
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 545
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 573
  • Promotions (if any): None

No other games scheduled