On July 2nd, the Rays played their 41st home game of the 2016 season. This meant they were halfway done with their 81-game home schedule. At the 41 game point, Rays average attendance was 16,972, a large increase from 2015's halfway mark of 14,657.
While it is fair to speculate that 16,972 could be the Rays final attendance for their entire season, I am curious as to whether Rays home attendance typically increases or decreases over the final 40 games. Of course, there are a lot of variables at play. Attendance could be low in the first half due to regional interest in other sports such as hockey or attendance could increase in the second half due to a Rays playoff run. Or there could be better promotions in the second half than the first half. And not to be underestimated, the second half of the season usually contains more July games, which is typically the Rays best attended month of the season.
The following chart depicts Rays average attendance at the 41-game point from 2007 to 2016. It also shows the final average attendance and whether there was a gain or loss in average attendance in the second half.
The following graph depicts the above chart.
The Rays made the playoffs in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2013. Rays second half attendance increased in 3 of those 4 seasons and barely decreased in 2011. But it also increased the most in 2007, the year the Rays lost 96 games. And it increased in 2009, 2014, and 2015, years the Rays did not make the playoffs.
We might be able to explain the 2007 second half boost by looking at the far right columns, the amount of times the Rays played the Red Sox and Yankees in the first half. In 2007, games at Tropicana Field against the Yankees and Red Sox averaged 26,847 and 27,487, respectively. The Rays played 16 second half games against those teams and fewer games against opponents who tend to draw less, so a heavy impact is to be expected.
I have often written about the drastic drop in average attendance when the Yankees and Red Sox visit. In recent years, these games carry far less weight in the Rays average attendance. In 2015, for example, the Rays played 13 of their 19 games against the Red Sox and Yankees in the first half and still had an increase in average attendance from the first to the second halves of the season.
Looking at 2012, we can possibly attribute the significant drop in attendance in the second half to increased interest in the Rays in April 2012 following the historical Game 162 and Rays playoff hunt in 2011. 2009 and 2012 are the only times since 2007 that April had the highest home average attendance of the season.
Weekends vs Weekdays Midseason Analysis
After looking at increases or decreases from the first to the second half, the next step is to look at whether those increases are during the week or during weekends. The following chart depicts Weekend Average at Game 41 and Final Weekend Attendance Average from 2007 to 2016.
There might not be a magic bullet describing why Rays second half average weekend attendance is more or less than the first half. It might be because of a combination of reasons.
- 2007: More Yankees or Red Sox games in the second half
- 2008: Rays playoff run
- 2010: Rays playoff run
- 2013: Rays playoff run
- 2015: Low attendance in the first half due to Tampa Bay Lightning playoff run
Now let's look at Rays average weekday attendance from the first half to the second half.
This is surprising. Every year since 2007, Rays average weekday attendance has gone up in the second half.
The easy explanation is that there are more July games in the second half and July is when kids are out of school, so parents don't have to rush kids to and from the stadium during the week in July and early August. That's my explanation without doing any additional research. I am curious what day of the week sees the greatest increase from the first half to the second half or are Monday through Thursday effected equally and I might get to that some other time.
Conclusion and 2016 Second Half Prediction
I'm not a big fan of comparing attendance at one point in the season to attendance at another point in another season. That's like comparing sales at a retail store before Christmas one year to sales after Christmas in another. Let all the sales happen, then compare. Or compare at similar times in the year. That's what I did here.
A factor I did not add into this analysis is wins in the first half versus wins in the second half because I don't think it matters. We only see September attendance as one of the Rays top months in the seasons where they make the playoffs. I have yet to explore whether winning during a month might affect that month's attendance.
As for 2016, we can almost certainly count out a September playoff bump in attendance - this team has too far to climb. Given that, if the Rays saw a 4% increase in attendance in the second half, their final attendance would be 17,463 per game, which would equal 1,414,558 fans for the season. This would be an increase over 2015's attendance but less than 2014's attendance. In order to equal 2014's attendance, Rays average attendance would have to increase 4.2% in the second half. That's not out of the realm of possibility.
Although 2014 attendance was 60-100,000 less than their attendance from 2011-2013. After a collapse in attendance in 2015 and with the current state of flux on the roster and with the stadium, I guess baby steps is the way to go.
