Tampa Bay Rays Attendance Review: September 2014

This post will explore Rays home attendance from September 1 to September 21, 2014. In case you missed it, here are the April, May, June, July, and August Attendance Reviews. Previous years' month-by-month breakdowns are covered here.

Overall figures:

• Total September 2014 Tampa Bay Rays home attendance: 218,256
• August home games: 13
• Average attendance per game: 16,789
• Highest attendance: 21,830 on Sat, September 20
• Lowest attendance: 10,125 on Tues, September 2
• Highest average attended series: 21,259 vs New York Yankees, September 15-17
• Lowest average attended series: 10,260 vs Toronto, September 2-4

Competing area sporting events:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - September 7 (att: 62,442)
• University of South Florida Football - September 6 (att: 28,915)
• University of South Florida Football - September 19 (att: 28,723)
• 2 Minor League Baseball games (avg attendance: 1,336 per game).

From 2007 to 2013, the September monthly average has been slightly above the Rays overall monthly average. September had the highest attendance in 2008 and 2010, was last in 2009, and finished 5th in attendance in 2012 and 2014. From 2007 to 2013, the average September attendance is 1.12% higher than the overall 2007-2013 average attendance.

• 2007-2013 Average Attendance: 20,475.72
• 2007-2013 September Average Attendance: 20,715.27
• Difference: +240
• Percentage: +1.12%

We will be using +1.12% as the "September factor" when we calculate how the Rays drew in 2014 compared to past results.

The following chart shows the percentage difference between the mathematically predicted Rays attendance and the actual attendance.

• 2007-2013 Avg = Rays average attendance vs specific opponent on that day since 2007. Calculated here.
• Bobblehead Bump = Average increase in attendance due to bobblehead giveaways on specific days since 2007. Calculated here.

Rays attendance exceeded their past average only once (September 17). They failed to meet their past average on all other dates.

On September 17th, the Rays exceeded attendance expectations by 6%. September 17th was Yankee all-star Derek Jeter's last appearance as a player at Tropicana Field. Given the large amount of New York Yankees fans in Florida, it is not surprising many fans came to see Jeter take the field one last time.

Comparing September 2014 with Previous Years

We will now compare the September 2014 average attendance to September attendance in other recent years.

September 2014 was the worst September since before 2007. September 2014 was 1,389 fans per game less than September 2013. Attendance in September 2014 was 42% lower than attendance in the highest September average attendance in 2008.

The below chart compares games played, record, and average attendance of the September 2014 Rays and the September 2012 Rays. Over the same amount of games, the 2014 Rays won less and drew less fans.

Through Game 81

We can't only compare attendance by past averages and overall months, we have to look at the trends based on where we are in the season. We will deep dive into the final totals more in a later post, but for now, the following chart depicts the Rays average attendance through Game 81 from 2007 to 2014.

September 21st is tied for the earliest date the Rays reached Home Game 81. They also played Game 81 on September 21st in 2008. The latest date the Rays played their 81st home game was on October 4 in 2009.

The Rays 2014 Game 81 average is below their 2007-2013 Game 81 average (20,475.72) by 3,011 fans per game. The average attendance at Game 81 in 2014 is the second worst since 2007, trailing only 2007.

By Game 81 in 2014 the Rays played the same amount of weekend and weekday games they have in most seasons from 2007 to 2013. During the 2014 season, the Rays played two more home games versus the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, the Rays' two highest drawing opponents, than they did during any season since 2007.

The following graph shows how the Rays 2014 final attendance compares to previous years.

This post concludes analysis into the Rays monthly attendance for 2014. We will have a longer deep dive into the Rays overall 2014 attendance soon as well as breakdowns by day, by month, by opponent, and by promotion.

Gary Sheffield thinks the Tampa area needs another Spring Training team

According to The Laker/Lutz News (a local Tampa suburb publication), former MLB star Gary Sheffield is supporting a group building a huge baseball complex in Wesley Chapel, an area just north of Tampa city limits.

And Sheffield, a Tampa resident, said it would be a great place for the Atlanta Braves to move their Spring Training.

Like the Dunedin Blue Jays, the Braves Spring Training lease is set to expire in 2017. Currently, the Braves train in the Walt Disney World Complex and have since 1998.

I am not sure how much pull Shef has with the Braves. Could he make this happen? Could he pull the right strings?

Admittedly, his idea has some good points. But it also has some points that have no claim on reality.

According to Sheffield,

“They (the Braves) don’t want to be second to Disney,” Sheffield told a group of business leaders recently at a Greater Wesley Chapel Chamber of Commerce economic development meeting. “The problem they are having is that the fans coming to the games there are not Braves fans. They are there for Disney, and that is a problem for them.”

In Sheffield's defense, this is understandable. Trying to link baseball to tourism is a horrible idea, unless the stadium is a destination, such as Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, or Yankee Stadium. It's not a good idea for a spring training stadium, especially when the Braves and Disney have nothing in common.

Looking at Braves spring training attendance, we can also see the Braves may be concerned. Whereas Grapefruit League attendance went up 4% last year, the Braves stayed exactly the same. Since 2006, their Spring Training average attendance per game has dropped from 9,498 to 7,490. That attendance, however, is still in the top half of attendance in the Grapefruit League.

So how much concern should there be?

Sheffield also thinks the Wesley Chapel location would be more convenient because it is located off I-75 and is a "straight shot" up to Atlanta. Ok, that's an acceptable point.

But he also thinks Braves fanbase would be better served with the near Tampa location.

“That is an easy commute for them,” Sheffield said. “All those fans could come straight here, plus go to other places like Disney and Clearwater Beach, since they would be close by. That is a possibility that is pretty much there for the taking.”

If Sheffield thinks linking the Braves to Disney is a bad idea, why does he suggest fans go can go to Disney World on their trips to see the Braves?

And how close is the fanbase?

According to the NY Times/Facebook fan survey, the Braves Florida stronghold is North Florida. South of the northern-most counties, the Braves have an over 9% fanbase along the East Coast down to Volusia County, home of Daytona. The west side of the state is predominantly Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox fans. Wouldn't the Braves be better off in a place like Daytona? Or perhaps the abandoned Cocoa Expo, the former Brevard County spring home of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins? That is a little south of their fanbase, but it is only a few highway exits from the Nationals spring home.

The owner of the upcoming complex, James Talton also has his own pie-in-the sky notions. I'm not sure how accurate this claim this, but knowing how flimsy most economic claims are, I doubt its truthiness.

Even without a major stadium component, Talton feels his sports complex could play a role in creating 8,000 jobs in the county, and produce $318 million in annual economic impact, as well as a direct revenue stream of $9 million each year to the county government. But if the project could attract a Major League team, there’s no telling how big of an impact that would have in the Wesley Chapel area, Talton said.

Continuing to razzle and dazzle with pie-in-the-sky ideas, Talton think his complex could draw more than Steinbrenner Field, the top drawing Spring Training complex located in the middle of Tampa.

Just no. No way. Not possible.

“We would want to put in up to 12,000 seats, but that could be a little ambitious,” he said. “A lot of what we hear from the league is that they want to have no more than 8,000 seats, because they want to make sure they are filled.”

Because 8,000 is realistic.

Talton also said his facility would be quicker to create revenue than a new Rays stadium.

Creating a separate field for spring training would not be anywhere near the headache the Tampa Bay Rays are experiencing with its efforts to get out of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. In fact, spring training fields are typically much smaller than regular season venues, Talton said, where average attendance usually holds around 6,700.

But that's exactly the problem. Adding the Braves to the area would either create new Braves fans or solidify fandom in a market the Rays really need to penetrate and capture. That would be five Spring Training complexes in the Tampa Bay area. Even if we assume most Spring Training revenue is generated from tourists, there is still a presence and a small amount of local dollars going to a team that is not the local Major League squad.

Unfortunately for the Rays, I don't think there is any recourse in using territorial rights to limit Spring Training market encroachment.

A lot has to happen before the Braves consider moving to the area, and again, I'm not sure how much pull Gary Sheffield has. But this is an idea that should be squashed before it even hatches.

(h/t to Shadow of the Stadium for finding this.)

Attendance Review: 2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

Welcome to our first 2014 attendance review and our 4th attendance review post on the Dunedin Blue Jays, minor league affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Background:

The Dunedin Blue Jays began play in the Florida State League in 1987. After three seasons playing at Grant Field, the Dunedin Blue Jays moved to Florida Exchange Stadium in 1990. Florida Exchange Stadium is also the spring training home of the Toronto Blue Jays. The current population of Dunedin is 35,444.

Dunedin Blue Jays 2014:


Home Games: 70

Total attendance:  60,044 (up 18.44% from 2013: 50,695)

Average: 896 (up 16.66% from 2013: 768)

Highest attended game: 4,173 on Friday, July 4th vs Clearwater

Lowest attended game: 296 on Friday, Aug 15th vs Brevard County

Low point of average attendance: Game 13, May 5th (802)

Double headers: 3 (May 24, June 12, Aug 11)

Cancellations: 0

Notable rehab assignments: Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, JA Happ, Casey Janssen

Other notable appearances: None

Breakdown:

(red highlight = below annual average of 896)

Overall:

(Note: the blank space in the middle of June indicates the Florida State League all-star break.)

By Month:

The following graph depicts the average attendance by month.

By Day:

Blue Jays attendance decreased 11.6% on the weekends compared to their average Monday through Thursday attendance.

• Mon-Thurs average attendance: 889
• Sat-Sun average attendance: 786
• Difference: -11.6%

The following graph depicts the average attendance by day.

By Opponent:

By Starting Pitcher:

By Day/Night, Weekday/Weekend Splits:

Minor League Shuffling and the future of the Tampa Bay market

Starting on September 11, several Minor League teams have been participating in the annual "affiliation shuffle". This "shuffle" means teams, cities, and Major League parent clubs change and rearrange minor league squads from the ranks of one parent club to another. With over 160 minor league teams across the country, the "affiliation shuffle" is a usual occurrence and some Minor League websites not only look forward to it, but excel in covering it.

While many cities and towns see their local squad change parent team, and sometimes even name and uniform, the Florida State League has stayed static. At least until this year.

For the first time in several years, a Florida State League team is changing affiliation. On September 18th, the Cubs left Daytona. According to Baseball America,

Twenty-two years as Chicago’s affiliate came to an end when the Cubs bolted for Myrtle Beach (Carolina) on the first day of the affiliation shuffle on Tuesday. Daytona found an eager partner in the Reds

Of course, the Reds will eventually change the team name (perhaps something race track related?). The Reds are also no stranger to Florida, having played in Sarasota for many years and in Tampa at Al Lopez Field for many years before that.

Of the 12 Florida State League teams, 8 are owned and operated by the parent club. Only the Rookie-level Pioneer League comes to close to the FSL's ratio of parent ownership, with 6 of 10 teams in that league owned by the Major League club.

The four privately owned teams in the Florida State League are:

• Charlotte Stone Crabs (currently a Rays affiliate)
• Brevard County Manatees (currently a Brewers affiliate)
• Fort Myers Miracle (currently a Twins affiliate)
• Daytona Cubs (formerly a Cubs affiliate, now a Reds team)

While a former Tampa team moves back to Florida, the current residents of the Tampa Bay area are set for quite some time. At the present moment, all of the Tampa Bay area minor league teams are owned by their parent club. The Tampa Yankees are owned by the Yankees, the Threshers are owned by the Phillies, the Marauders are owned by the Pirates, and the Dunedin Blue Jays are owned by the Dunedin Blue Jays.

There is one date the local minor league teams do have to consider - the date the city lease expires on their stadium. Once the lease expires, teams are free to move to another location.

Currently, the Tampa Bay area Minor League stadium leases are as follows:

• Dunedin Blue Jays: 2017
• Clearwater Threshers: 2023
• Tampa Yankees: 2027
• Bradenton Marauders: 2037

The City of Dunedin and the Blue Jays are in talks and there are rumors the Blue Jays are exploring other options after the lease expires in 2017, although the Palm Beach location rumored to house two of either the Blue Jays, Nationals, or Astros is currently facing a few legal hurdles.

(Note: Both the Astros and Nationals, neither of whom have a Minor League teams in the Florida State League, have their leases expiring in 2016. If the two teams leave Kissimmee and Melbourne Viera, respectively, then the Blue Jays will have to re-sign with Dunedin or look elsewhere.)

I think the most interesting of the Tampa Bay team lease situations will be the Tampa Yankees in 2027. Because that date is so close to the end of the Rays' Tropicana Field lease, if the City of Tampa clears area for the Rays to move across the bridge, would they let the Yankees go? Would the Rays make moving the Yankees a condition in moving to Tampa? Would the Yankees willingly move?

Or would the Tampa Sports Authority try to have their cake and eat it too, balancing both the top drawing Spring Training team and a Major League team who, by the way, are division rivals? Would they keep the Rays in a crowded market?

I wouldn't be surprised if as we get closer, Rays ownership mentions this to the Tampa Sports Authority, if not in public, at least behind closed doors. The Rays might not have the ability to push the Clearwater Threshers or Bradenton Marauders out of the Tampa Bay market, but they might flex their muscles at Tampa's relationship with the Yankees.

Forcing Minor League teams to move is not without precedent. The Marlins forced the Miracle from Miami and the Florida State League Yankees from Fort Lauderdale in 1992.

Because the National League awarded an expansion team to the Miami area, the Miracle moved across the state to Fort Myers this year and the Yankees are dropping their Fort Lauderdale team next year. Both teams have played in the Class A Florida State League.

"We are prohibited from playing there because of the Marlins," (Yankees' vice president and general counsel) David Sussman said.

Something to think about for the next 10 years as we watch the local squads take on the new Daytona team and the rest of the Florida State League.

Thank You for Reading and What to Expect in the Offseason

Thank you.

This was fun.

With the conclusion of the Rays home schedule, the 2014 baseball season in Tampa Bay is over. The lights are off, the ticket booths are closed, and the grass is beginning to grow a bit longer than it has for the last six months - except in the dome, of course.

And so ends the first season of this blog.

Since March 31st, the Rays Opening Day, I tracked attendance for 361 games over 175 days. That's a hair more than 2 games a day. Even on the handful of days when there were no home games, I still posted an attendance report.

It was a lot of work. But rewarding.

This is my first solo daily blog. For those who have read my work before, I have freelanced on several other sites, but I've never written every day. It takes a lot of discipline and is a lot harder than it looks. This blog made me appreciate all the daily blogs I've read for years.

Speaking of, I definitely want to say thanks to the writers who helped promote my work on this site during the season: Rays Index, Shadow of the Stadium, DRaysBay, and Blue Bird Banter brought people to my little niche site without me sending links their way. That was very appreciated. We overlapped on some topics, but what I found most interesting was when we took the same bit of news and each found different angles to write about. Hopefully readers found that as informative as I did.

As well, I would like to thank all those who are following me on twitter, Facebook, and who have subscribed on YouTube. Thank you also for the retweets, favorites, and any other means of sharing my work. Even if you disagreed with my analysis.

This is the relaxing part of the season for me. With the Rays finishing the season on the road, I don't need to worry about average attendances, attendance per day, or what else was happening in Tampa Bay that might draw Rays fans. I can just watch the final games with a beer in my hand and my computer off.

That doesn't mean the writing is going to stop, however. Far, far from it.

Like most baseball bloggers, I am going to keep track of what's happening during the offseason. But whereas other bloggers talk about player movement, I will be analyzing any bit of business, marketing, economics, demographics, or attendance data that affects Tampa Bay baseball.

There is also still a lot of looking back to do. I need to explore the trends and patterns of attendance/economics/demographics from 2014 as well as getting back to analyzing past seasons for the Tampa Bay Minor League teams. Plus, I want to do some MLB overall attendance pattern research for Fangraphs or any other national site that will allow me to freelance. I also eventually want to get into the demographics, average incomes, and fanbase estimates of every zip code in the Tampa Bay area. And of course, an analysis of the Rays upcoming 2015 schedule and an attendance prediction.

That might not all get done before Opening Day 2015, by the way.

I like to think I added something interesting to the conversation this baseball season. Whether you visited for the Minor League attendance and marketing or most likely, for posts on the Rays attendance, demographics, attendance, and marketing, I just wanted to say thank you to everyone who read.

It was a fun season.

But the best is yet to come.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During University of South Florida Football Games 2007-2014

Welcome to our third post comparing Tampa Bay Rays attendance to the attendance of another Tampa Bay area sports team. This post looks at Rays home attendance at Tropicana Field while the University of South Florida Bulls football team is playing home games at Raymond James Stadium. These facilities are 21.2 miles apart according to Google Maps. Without traffic, travel between the two is approximately 27 minutes.

Since 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays and USF Bulls have played on the same day 12 times.

• 1 time in 2007
• 3 times in 2008
• 2 times in 2009
• 1 time in 2010
• 2 times in 2011
• 3 times in 2014

Of these, 2 occurred while the Rays were in the playoffs, both in 2008. Three of these games occurred on the Bulls home opener.

The following chart depicts the days the Tampa Bay Rays have played on the same day as the USF Bulls.

Highlighted blue boxes = Bulls Home Opener
Highlighted yellow boxes = Rays playoff games
D/N = Day or Night game.
"Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day" is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452.31 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
"% Difference" is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

(Click pic to enlarge.)

There are not a lot of patterns here as it is a small sample size with a lot of variables, but we can observe a few things.

The Rays have played on the same day as the Bulls 12 times. On seven of those occasions, they have had either a concert or a bobblehead promotion. Those promotions are among the Rays best promotional gimmicks. Of the remaining five, two were during the playoff run of 2008, two were against the Red Sox (one of the Rays best drawing opponents), and the last was the last Friday night game of 2014.

The 2008 playoff games played on the same day as the USF Bulls have lower attendance than the average playoff game, however, the tarped seats were not available during these games and not as many seats were available, lowering the maximum capacity at Tropicana Field. Our "Playoff Average" contains World Series games were the tarp was removed and those seats were sold.

We can also see how much attendance has dropped for both the Rays and the Bulls. On the Bulls home opener in 2008, the two teams drew over 82,000 fans. On the Bulls home opener in 2014, the two teams drew barely 49,000.

Also of note, tin 2009 and 2014, the Rays were far out of contention by mid-September. That may explain the far below average attendance numbers. Even though the Rays are eliminated, we can't positively ascertain how many fans are opting to do the USF Bulls game, as their attendance dropped as well.

It is important to remember, attendance at a Bucs or Bulls game is not an "either/or" proposition for all fans. While the fans in attendance made a choice to attend one or the other, many fans stayed home and watched both games on their TVs or went to a sports bar. These fans chose to attend neither. It can probably be assumed fans who attend neither but watch both are in the majority in the Tampa Bay area.

(Note: Although college football is hugely watched and attended statewide, it would be difficult to compose a chart determining Rays attendance during Florida State Seminoles and University of Florida Gators games. It is easier for us to assume people in the Tampa Bay area made a choice to attend a game at Tropicana Field or Raymond James Stadium then to guess how many people made a drive to Tallahassee or Gainesville.)

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 21, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 21, 2014:

Total Attendance: 21,270

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 81
• Attendance: 21,270
• Starting Pitcher: Nate Karns
• Opponent: Chicago White Sox
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: John Danks
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,857.59
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 20,213.33
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 22,000.92
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 21,270
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): Tom Petty concert (Amalie Arena)

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 20, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 20, 2014:

Total Attendance: 21,830

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 80
• Attendance: 21,830
• Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer
• Opponent: Chicago White Sox
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Hector Noesi
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,814.94
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 19,685
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 24,320.23
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 17,921.73
• Promotions (if any): Joe Maddon Potato Bobblehead
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): Experience Hendrix Concert (Clearwater). Jay Mohr comedy show (Tampa Straz Center)

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 19, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 19, 2014:

Total Attendance: 17,540

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 79
• Attendance: 17,540
• Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson
• Opponent: Chicago White Sox
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Jose Quintana
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,764.11
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,540
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 18,754.76
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 19,548.14
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): USF Football: Attendance: 28,723

No other area games.

Rays and ESPN the Magazine's Ultimate Team Rankings

On Thursday, ESPN the Magazine released their annual Ultimate Team Rankings. This ultimate chart ranks every team in North America's big four sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) in eight different categories. Data that composed the rankings was calculated partly from fan polling and partly from marketing companies. The goal of these rankings is to see which team fans think is the best all-round organization.

According to the Ultimate Team Rankings, the Tampa Bay Rays are the 35th best organization among the four professional sports. That placed them 8th in Major League Baseball and second in the Tampa Bay area behind the Tampa Bay Lightning, who placed 6th overall, and well ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished a distant 84th.

The following chart shows how the Tampa Bay area teams did in the ESPN Ultimate Team Ranking:

Arranging the rankings only for Tampa Bay teams, we see the Lightning ahead in many categories:

These charts are interesting. The rankings have the Lightning as a far better run franchise than the Rays and both the Rays and the Lightning better than the Bucs. Let's look at a few of the categories.

Ownership: According to the rankings, Jeff Vinik of the Tampa Bay Lightning is perceived as far more honest and loyal to core players and the community than the Glazer family and Stu Sternberg and his team. That's interesting, especially considering Vinik is the newest owner of the bunch. Perhaps the Channelside area investments are paying off community-wise. Meanwhile, the Rays ownership ranked 19th in Major League Baseball. Perhaps their handling of the Rays payroll has led fans to believe ownership is not loyal.

It could be worse, however. Not surprisingly, the Marlins ownership was 122nd overall, dead last in honesty and loyalty.

Coaching: Another interesting category. The Rays ranked 19th overall, 5th in MLB, and first in Tampa Bay in strength in on-field leadership. Apparently the fans like Joe Maddon and his staff and they are looked upon well. Far better than the ownership group.

Affordability: While the Lightning are 6th overall, the Rays weren't far behind at 9th. The Rays were also 1st in Major League Baseball in price of tickets, parking, and concessions. The Bucs were a distant 79th.

Fan Relations: While I am not surprised the Lightning did very well (6th overall), I am surprised by the Rays ranking of 40th overall and 7th in MLB in openness and consideration towards fans by players, coaches, and management. Perhaps this is a category the Rays can strive to improve. I would be curious to see how fans determined this. While I think Joe Maddon seems open and the Tropicana Field staff seem nice enough (save for the obtrusive security), maybe the politics of the stadium issue and the fact that Rays ownership has not firmly announced they are staying in the Tampa Bay area has hurt their cause. Or maybe fans are still sore from Evan Longoria and David Price commenting about attendance in 2010.

Stadium Experience: This category didn't surprise me at all. The Lightning again did very well - 5th overall - and the Rays did very poorly (92nd overall and 27th of 30 in MLB). The Bucs also did not finish well in this category with an 86 overall. But for the Rays, the problem is Tropicana Field. No matter how much lipstick is put on the pig, it's still a drab, aging dome with rings in the air and a faulty substation that causes indoor rain delays. I was surprised the Trop finished ahead of any other stadium besides Oakland (is Citi Field really that bad?).

Finally, Title Track - championships won or expected to be won with fan's lifetime. Since the Rays haven't won a championship, they are below teams that have, to include the Lightning and Buccaneers, both who have won since 2000. But the Rays aren't bad, ranking 57th overall and 17th in MLB.

I thought the Rays did fairly well in the ESPN Magazine Ultimate Team Rankings. Although they dropped from 17th overall in 2013 to 35th overall in 2014 and from 4th in MLB in 2013 to 8th in 2014, for a team that plays in a very crowded market with a splintered demographic and a dilapidated dome, that's respectable. Of course, when hockey and baseball overlap, the Rays will probably continue to see fan interest sway to the Lightning, but when the Rays have the season to themselves, fans seem to enjoy and have faith in the product.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 18, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 18, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Joe Maddon discusses how to create young fans

Yesterday, I wrote about how the Rays are trying to understand their fanbase and how they are committed to building relationships in the community. The same day I heard one of their vice presidents speak, manager Joe Maddon was also discussing his theories on fan creation and relationship building.

According to ESPN.com, technology is the key to involving young fans into baseball and specifically the Rays.

"I believe you need to really focus on getting the kids more involved based on what kids are digging these days, and that's technology, their devices," Maddon said.

"I think Skyping and getting kids to connect with players in an organization during the course of a school year primarily could really draw young people to an organization or a bunch of players," Maddon said. "Even one guy per week Skyped a classroom from each team, just think of the impact that would make. I think once a kid has been touched by an athlete, I don't care what sport it's in, he's going to become a fan of that player and that team."

"Somebody needs to sit down and really come up with an interactive kind of a situation in the ballpark or at home that engages youngsters, that's what I'm looking at," he said. "Be more creative. Get us in touch with them, get players touching kids more technologically and you're going to get more fans."

These are all great ideas. I've often said the Rays need to do more in social media, whether that's using hashtags such as #TropTrip or doing contests for the best fan-created videos. Fans want to interact.

In regards to Maddon's tech ideas, I think the Rays could do them in the ballpark as well as online. In the past year, I have advocated redesigning the TBT Party Deck. The creation of the Center Porch has made the Party Deck obsolete. I also advocated turning the Party Deck into a kids corner, taking the miscellaneous games and entertainment kiosks from the bottom level and putting them in the Party Deck. If they did this, the Rays could then turn each of the kiosks on the bottom level into tech centers, where fans can experiment with videos games, virtual reality, graphic design, photography, and maybe even player interaction.

Personally, I think a kiosk where you can watch the game live from different camera angles with the ability to zoom in and out would be fantastic - a "film your own inning" kiosk, if you will. Then you could add your own graphics and email your creation to yourself or post it immediately on YouTube or Facebook. (Yes, if you want to make an all Kevin Kiermaier video, you could do that.)

If the Rays had personalized fan videos playing on the scoreboard between innings and fans creating their own media or interacting with technology in the lower level during the game, technology and the fan bond would be omnipresent.

Fans also love seeing their names and pictures on scoreboards. The Rays social media team could scour twitter and Facebook for check-ins prior to the game and feature some of the check-ins on the scoreboard during the game with a graphic that said "Welcome!".

The social media team could also find people who posted pictures at the game and thank them for coming to the game. Or have select players tweet a few fans after the game.

This ideas, along with the players directly interacting with schools, fans, etc in their off-time, will further build and solidify the bond between the team and the fans. Joe Maddon has a great point. Let's hope the front office was listening.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 17, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 17, 2014:

Total Attendance: 26,332

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 78
• Attendance: 26,332
• Starting Pitcher: Alex Cobb
• Opponent: New York Yankees
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Brandon McCarthy
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,766.99
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 26,095.2
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 14,984.92
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 17,420.53
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): None

No other area games.

Rays VP talks to USF students about Rays market

On Tuesday, I attended the Nielsen Industry Connections 2014 event on the University of South Florida campus. The event was designed to showcase the technology and innovation the Nielsen Corporation is using to better measure what we watch and what we buy, among many other things. Nielsen has data on many, many things and works with many, many companies to provide data and insight.

(As I'm an MBA candidate at USF, I went to learn about Nielsen and some of the projects they are working on.)

One of the companies Nielsen works with is the Tampa Bay Rays. After hearing from two Nielsen employees, to include one of their senior vice presidents, the audience heard from Mark Fernandez, the Rays Senior Vice President, and Bill Walsh, Senior Director of Business Affairs.

Fernandez began by giving an overview of the Rays current market situation. He talked about how broken the Devil Rays brand was when Stu Sternberg bought the team. He then called the Rays the "most popular sports team in Tampa Bay" and gave facts on the stadium location and the surrounding demographics, the corporate ticket sales situation, and the fact that the area lacks mass transit. He then said "the realities are what they are".

Fernandez then cited a Bloomberg article that called the Rays "the smartest spending team in sports".

Among the facts he stated were:

• According to Nielsen, the Rays have a fanbase of 1.62 million fans. This is greater than the fanbase of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have 1.61 million fans in Tampa Bay. The Rays caught the Bucs in 2011 and have been neck-and-neck since.
• In 2013, the Rays had 774,000 unique visitors. The Bucs only had 204,000 unique visitors.

Fernandez concluded by saying, "we are going to win head-to-head versus other teams in the area." He then spoke about the Rays community efforts and how they don't just give money to charities, Rays employees are part of the community helping the charities succeed.

Bill Walsh then took the stage and discussed the "micro level" of innovation. According to Walsh, the Rays are taking the industry lead in knowing their customers. Through the Rays Cards, they are connecting with the fans, learning their habits, and deepening knowledge of the current fanbase.

He also talked about the digital event life cycle: how fans search for information on a game, search for tickets, purchase tickets online, attend the game, then might go out after to Ferg's, or might post pictures on social media, or tweet about the game. The Rays are trying to understand who does what, when, and why.

According to Walsh, 2/3 of season ticket holders use the Rays Membership cards and 1/10 of all tickets checked in are through the cards. Their next goal, he said, was to introduce loyalty programs, to create "long-term loyalty".

Response: I didn't get a chance to speak to either after the event. They both left quickly after the presentation. However, a few things stood out.

1) Every poll I have seen, from the Facebook/New York Times poll to the Quinnipiac University poll in May 2012, estimates the Rays fanbase as far less than 1.62 million. Quinnipiac approximates 780,000 and Facebook/New York Times estimates a bit over 1 million. If the fanbase is 1.62 million, why ask them to go to "one more game"? If each fan went to two games, the Rays would draw 3.2 million. As well, 1.62 million means 57.8% of the population of Tampa Bay are Rays fans. Not just baseball fans, but Rays fans. I think that is way high.

2) I don't agree the Rays have a larger fanbase than the Bucs. A few months ago, I used Nate Silver's research to estimate the Rays were 3% less popular based on Google searches. Also, no Rays player is anywhere near as popular as Bucs players on social media. Bucs attendance is 3x higher than Rays attendance - granted for far less games. I don't see how there are more Rays fans than Bucs fans.

Even the idea that the Rays have more "unique visitors" is faulty. How many of them are fans of other teams? Good luck convincing an area Yankees fan to come to a Rays versus Twins game on a Tuesday in mid-July.

Perhaps if every Rays fan used the Rays Card, the Rays would be able to tell how many Rays fans are coming to the games compared to fans of other teams, who are less likely to purchase a Rays Card.

3) Attendance does not seem to be a big concern. Fernandez's opening quotes seemed to advocate the reality of the situation. He seemed to accept that the "winning will bring fans" theory was faulty, and that the Rays have moved on to other fan-focused market strategies. He did not state, however, if there are some days they are disappointed only 10,000 show up instead of 15,000. Nor did they attempt to explain why attendance dropped drastically from 2010 to 2011, from 1.8 million to the 1.5 million level. Nor did they explain why Devil Rays versus Yankees and Red Sox used to draw over 30,000 in 2007 and now these games draw only 20,000.

4) If I had a moment to ask a few questions, I would have asked:

• How do the Rays feel about creating these strong relationships - with the community and with loyal fans - when there is the specter of the lease, relocation, and the constant barrage of media articles theorizing that the Rays should leave the area?
• Could the Rays put their foot down, rebutt the mass media, and unequivocally state they are staying in Tampa Bay?
• If the Rays can't state without a doubt they are staying, why should fans give them their hearts and minds?
• How do the Rays measure success from a marketing perspective?
• Lastly, how do they intend on winning new fans and increasing the fanbase? Is it possible?

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 16, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 16, 2014:

Total Attendance: 21,387

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 77
• Attendance: 21,387
• Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi
• Opponent: New York Yankees
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Michael Pineda
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,655.75
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 26,068.88
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 13,645.41
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,156.11
• Promotions (if any): Derek Jeter Farewell Ceremony
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): None

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 15, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 15, 2014:

Total Attendance: 16,058

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 76
• Attendance: 16,058
• Starting Pitcher: Alexander Colome
• Opponent: New York Yankees
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Chris Campuano
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,606.66
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 26,654.12
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 14,732.5
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,058
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): None

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 14, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 14, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 13, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 13, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 12, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 12, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Baseball at Al Lang Stadium Closer to End

Al Lang Stadium in St. Petersburg is a monument of baseball history. Originally built in 1947, Al Lang Field replaced Waterfront Park and became the spring training home of the St. Louis Cardinals and New York Yankees. In those days, those teams were manned by Hall of Famers Stan Musial and Joe DiMaggio, respectively. These legends and many, many players since called Al Lang Stadium their spring home.

(For a great video showing the opening season of Al Lang Stadium, click here.)

In 1976, Al Lang Field was renovated to become Al Lang Stadium to fit the then needs of its residents, the Cardinals and the New York Mets. After the Cardinals and Mets left, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays moved in. After the Rays moved spring training to Port Charlotte in 2008, Al Lang was no longer used for professional baseball.

The old stadium was no longer good enough for Major League spring training.

In 2010, I interviewed the President of Minor League Baseball, Pat O'Conner. I asked him about St. Petersburg as a Minor League location. He told me:

St. Petersburg, because of the Rays, it’s not a good Florida State League market. It’s tough enough now competing with Dunedin, Clearwater, Tampa, Sarasota, and Bradenton. You know, the Rays owned the club and decided to sell it and you know it wasn’t a good marketing initiative for them to have it.

So Al Lang Stadium was not a good place for Minor League Baseball either.

From 2008 to 2010, Al Lang Stadium was used by college teams and amateur tournaments. There was even talk the Rays would try to build a Major League ballpark on the location, but that was quickly nixed.

Then in 2011, the Tampa Bay Professional Soccer Club began play at Al Lang Stadium. As the popularity of the Rowdies has grown, so to has their desire to have their own facility, and not share one with baseball. The easiest solution for a permanent Rowdies home is to permanently transform Al Lang Stadium into a soccer pitch, cede control of the facility to the Rowdies, and close the door on ever playing baseball in the old field again.

Yesterday, the City of St. Petersburg moved closer to that option.

According to the Tampa Tribune, Rowdies principal owner Bill Edwards will soon assume control of Al Lang Stadium and convert the field for soccer use. In exchange, Edwards will give up control of the Walter Fuller Complex, and the field there will be used for the amateur baseball games once played at Al Lang.

While there is some legal wrangling that still needs to happen, and the deal could possibly be voted down, the mayor of St Pete and people on the city council have said it would be a good move for the Rowdies and the city.

While sad, baseball stadia do come and go. But unlike other historical parks, Al Lang Stadium will still exist and hopefully the Rowdies will acknowledge the facility's rich history. But downtown St. Petersburg stopped being a home for Major and Minor League Baseball years ago. With bars such as MacDintons and the gathering of the local Ralph's Mob, soccer culture is growing in downtown St. Pete.

It is best for the city and the Rowdies to give the soccer team their own home.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 11, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 11, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games scheduled.

Rays Owner Comments on Payroll and Attendance, Doesn't Make Sense

On Wednesday, Tampa Bay Times writer Marc Tompkin published bits from his latest sitdown with Rays owner Stu Sternberg. The big draw from the interview was that the Rays will be cutting payroll from the $80 million level they were at in 2014 to something much lower - which Cork Gaines of Rays Index estimates won't be hard after trading David Price and possibly moving Ben Zobrist.

Tompkin also asked Sternberg about attendance and the fanbase.

First, Tompkin mentioned the Rays are on a pace to average 1.43 million fans this year. This is a misnomer. If the Rays get exactly their to-date season average of 17,627 fans per game each of the last six home games, then yes, they will be close to 1.43 million. But that's not going to happen.

The Rays have three more games at Tropicana Field against the Yankees. Derek Jeter is scheduled to appear. Attendance will be above 17,627. That's a guarantee. Putting the average for the upcoming Yankees series at 22,000 per game, attendance will end at 1.44 million. It's not a significant increase, but it is more realistic. Unless a meteor hits Tropicana Field before the Yankees series, the Rays attendance will be higher than what Tompkin predicted.

But I digress.

According to Tompkin, Stu Sternberg said the following:

Their majors-low attendance, on pace for 1.43 million, seems to be "in a steady state" with little change based on how the team does: "I don't know what'll dramatically push the attendance up. And I do believe that a number of years of really losing baseball, we're in jeopardy.''

Yes, since 2011, the Rays attendance has been in a "steady state".

• 2011: 1.53 million (91 wins)
• 2012: 1.56 million (90 wins)
• 2013: 1.53 million (92 wins)
• 2014: est. 1.45 million (75-80 wins?)

In 2007, the Devil Rays drew 1.38 million fans and lost 96 games, winning 66. That means with the current size of the fan base and fans' proclivity to travel to games, 25 wins only equals 150,000 fans. 15 wins only equals 70,000 fans.

What will push attendance up (excluding any relocation of play)?

Expanding the fan base. Aggressive marketing. More perks for season ticket holders (use the Lightning as an example). Better promotions. Less intrusive security. Improve the fan experience. Iron out the pre-game autograph rules. Get creative.

Sternberg's next line, "And I do believe that a number of years of really losing baseball, we're in jeopardy.'' makes no sense to me. Did Tompkin leave out a word?

Is it supposed to be "And I do believe that AFTER a number of years of really losing baseball, we're in jeopardy.'?' Could he have said "And I do believe that a number of years of really losing baseball, AND we're in jeopardy.''?

Either could be, but why? The team lost 97 games every year from 1998-2007. They drew only 150,000 less fans then when they last won 90 games. Over the last four years, winning and losing has had little effect on the Rays attendance. Perhaps Sternberg thinks winning is the key to creating new fans.

It's a start, but it has only worked so much so far.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 10, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 10, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No games scheduled.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During Tampa Bay Buccaneers Games 2007-2014

Welcome to our second post comparing Tampa Bay Rays attendance to the attendance of another Tampa Bay area sports team. This post looks at Rays home attendance at Tropicana Field while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing home games at Raymond James Stadium. These facilities are 21.2 miles apart according to Google Maps. Without traffic, travel between the two is approximately 27 minutes.

Since 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played on the same day 8 times (1 time in 2007, 1 time in 2008, 1 time in 2010, 3 times in 2011, 1 time in 2012, and 1 time in 2014). Of these, 2 occurred while the Rays were in the playoffs and 3 occurred on the Bucs home opener.

The following chart depicts the days the Tampa Bay Rays have played on the same day as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Highlighted blue boxes = Buccaneers Home Opener
Highlighted yellow boxes = Rays playoff games
D/N = Day or Night game.
"Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day" is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452.31 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
"% Difference" is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

(Click pic to enlarge.)

(Note: Rays 2014 Avg Annual Attendance/Day is as of 9/7/2014. They have one more remaining Sunday game on 9/21 vs Chicago.)

There are not a lot of patterns here as it is a small sample size with a lot of variables, but we can observe a few things.

The Rays have played 15 playoff games overall since 2007. Only once have they played on a Sunday and only twice have they played on a Monday. The Sunday game was Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS and the Monday games were Game 3 of the 2011 ALDS and Game 3 of the 2013 ALDS. Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS and Game 3 of the 2011 ALDS coincided with Buccaneers games.

Of the 2 times the Rays played regular season games on the same day as the Bucs and matched or drew over their average attendance, both were against the Boston Red Sox (9/23/2007 and 9/11/2011). We have already shown the Red Sox impact on Rays attendance here.

Also of note, the 9/23/2007 attendance was the lesser of two Sunday games versus Boston during 2007, but the 9/11/2011 game outdrew a Rays vs Red Sox Sunday game played earlier in 2011. Adding to the complexity, the New England Patriots played during the 9/23/2007 game, but did not play on 9/11/2011.

Another interesting trend is that while the Bucs home opener attendance has gone up by 11,000 fans from 2011 to 2014, the Rays attendance during those days has gone down over 5,000 fans. However, while the Rays playoff attendance went down from 40,473 in 2008 to 33,251 in 2011, Bucs attendance on the same days went down as well by approximately 1,000 fans.

(Note: Tropicana Field's covered seats were opened for sale in 2008 but not in 2011. This explains the Rays drop in attendance.)

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the area's biggest draw, attendance at a Bucs or Rays game is not an "either/or" proposition for all fans. While the fans in attendance made a choice to attend one or the other, many fans stayed home and watched both games on their TVs or went to a sports bar. These fans chose to attend neither. It can probably be assumed fans who attend neither but watch both are in the majority in the Tampa Bay area.

We will publish an update to the final Sunday average on this chart following the end of the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 season.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 9, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 9, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No games scheduled.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 8, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 8, 2014:

Total Attendance: 0

No games scheduled.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance Review: August 2014

This post will explore Rays home attendance from August 1 to August 31, 2014. In case you missed it, here are the April, May, June, and July Attendance Reviews. Previous years' month-by-month breakdowns are covered here.

Overall figures:

• Total August 2014 Tampa Bay Rays home attendance: 254,378
• August home games: 12
• Average attendance per game: 21,198.16
• Highest attendance: 31,042 on Sat, August 16 (sell-out)
• Lowest attendance: 13,575 on Wed, August 20
• Highest average attended series: 28,796.33 vs New York Yankees, Aug 15-17
• Lowest average attended series: 15,698 vs Detroit, Aug 19-21

Competing area sporting events:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Night Practice - August 1 (att: ~15,000)
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers Preseason Game - August 16
• Tampa Bay Rowdies home soccer game - August 16 (att: 4,273)
• 66 Minor League Baseball games (avg attendance: 1,472 per game).

From 2007 to 2013, the August monthly average has been nearly identical to the Rays overall monthly average. August had the highest attendance in 2013, the lowest attendance in 2011 and 2012, was fourth in 2007 and 2008, and third in 2009 and 2010. From 2007 to 2013, the average August attendance is 0.999929% lower than the overall 2007-2013 average attendance.

• 2007-2013 Average Attendance: 20,475.72
• 2007-2013 August Average Attendance: 20,474.27
• Difference: 1.45
• Percentage: 0%

We will be using 0% as the "August factor" when we calculate how the Rays drew in 2014 compared to past results.

The following chart shows the percentage difference between the mathematically predicted Rays attendance and the actual attendance.

• 2007-2013 Avg = Rays average attendance vs specific opponent on that day since 2007. Calculated here.
• Bobblehead Bump = Average increase in attendance due to bobblehead giveaways on specific days since 2007. Calculated here.

Rays attendance exceeded their past average four times (August 1, 3, 19, 21). They failed to meet their past average the seven times. On August 16, a sell-out was expected and achieved.

On August 3rd, the Rays exceeded attendance expectations by 41.01%. August 3rd was "FSU Day" at Tropicana Field and area alumni and fans of Florida State University received an FSU-themed Rays hat.

Comparing August 2014 with Previous Years

We will now compare the August 2014 average attendance to August attendance in other recent years.

August 2014 was the fifth best August since 2007, topping 2007, 2011, and 2012. August 2014 was 464 fans per game less than August 2013. Attendance in August 2014 was 35% higher than attendance in August 2011 but 21.7% below the highest August attendance in 2009.

The below chart compares games played, record, and average attendance of the August 2014 Rays and the August 2012 Rays. Over the same amount of games, the 2014 Rays won less but drew more fans.

Through Game 68

We can't only compare attendance by past averages and overall months, we have to look at the trends based on where we are in the season. Through the end of August 2014, the Rays played 68 of their scheduled 81 home games. The following chart depicts the Rays average attendance through Game 68 from 2007 to 2014.

August 31st is the average date the Rays have reached Game 68. They played Game 68 four days earlier in 2013 and six days later in 2009 and 2012.

The Rays 2014 Game 68 average is below their 2007-2013 Game 68 average (20,408.75) by 2,050 fans per game. The average attendance at Game 68 in 2014 is the second worst since 2007, trailing only 2007.

By Game 68 in 2014 the Rays have played the average amount of weekend and weekday games as they have from 2007 to 2013. The 2014 season to date has played two more games versus the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, the Rays' two highest drawing opponents, than the average season.

The following graph shows how the Rays 2014 Game 68 attendance compares to previous years.

As we enter the final month of the regular season, the Rays have 13 home games left. Of these, 1 is against Boston and 3 are against the Yankees. The retirement of Yankees star Derek Jeter should bring high numbers of Yankees fans and baseball fans to Tropicana Field for the September 15-17 series. (For our estimate of how many Yankees fans there are in Florida, click here.)

Considering the Rays have a low chance of making the playoffs and the professional and college football seasons begin, sports fans in the Tampa Bay area might find other places to spend their money. Because of the Jeter bump, September won't be worse than June (which averaged less than ~15,000) but September crowds won't be rocking the roof off the Trop either.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 7, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 7, 2014:

Total Attendance: 19,914

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 75
• Attendance: 19,914
• Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson
• Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Bud Norris
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,627.31
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 13,395
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 22,061.83
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 19,882.83
• Promotions (if any): The Wiggles Post-Game Concert
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): Tampa Bay Bucs football game: Attendance: 62,442

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 6, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 6, 2014:

Total Attendance: 17,969

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 74
• Attendance: 17,969
• Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly
• Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Kevin Gausman
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,596.41
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 12,580.12
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 24,527.75
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 19,851.33
• Promotions (if any): Longoria Heavy Metal Bobblehead
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): USF Football: Attendance: 28,915

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 5, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 5, 2014:

Total Attendance: 14,632

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 73
• Attendance: 14,632
• Starting Pitcher: Alex Cobb
• Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Wei-Yin Chen
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,591.3
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 11,810.28
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 18,856
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,667.91
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): None

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 4, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 4, 2014:

Total Attendance: 10,392

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 72
• Attendance: 10,392
• Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi
• Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Mark Buerle
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,632.4
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 15,072.8
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 13,785.44
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 15,829.15
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): Drake & Lil Wayne Concert (Tampa Amphitheater)

No other area games.

Effect of Future Transit and Traffic on Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance

A few weeks ago, data journalism site FiveThirtyEight.com looked at public transportation use in cities and towns in the US. They ranked all the metropolitan centers with populations over 65,000 and determined which area got the most bang out of public transportation.

With 229.8 trips per capita in 2013, New York City blew away the competition. Also in the top ten were San Francisco-Oakland, Boston, Washington DC, Chicago, and Philadelphia.

Out of 290 areas, Tampa-St. Petersburg ranked 124th with only 12.3 trips per capita in 2013. Of the 21 areas with over 2 million people, Tampa-St. Petersberg ranked 20th, trailing only Detroit.

People often claim traffic and congestion is a major cause in the Rays lack of attendance. They claim the geographic layout of the area and the location of Tropicana Field prevents easy flow from population centers to Rays games.

According to traffic research site TomTom, the Tampa Bay area is the 20th most congested metro area in the United States. TomTom estimates there is a 28 minute delay for every hour traveled during peak driving periods (morning rush, post-work rush).

So what if anything is being done that might reduce congestion and allow a better flow to baseball in the Tampa Bay area?

This November, the Greenlight Pinellas proposal comes to ballot. According to its website, the Greenlight Pinellas proposal is a 10-year program designed to reform and improve public transportation in Pinellas County, home of the Tampa Bay Rays, Clearwater Threshers, and Dunedin Blue Jays.

If approved, Greenlight Pinellas would implement the following:

• Limited improvements in 2015, to include a trolley service and a regional Saturday service.
• 2016 would see expanded night and weekend service times, increased bus frequencies, Increase mid-day frequencies for local routes, trolleys, and connector, a new regional express service, circulator service, and seasonal trolley service.
• From 2018 to 2021, a rapid Bus Service is planned for Pinellas County's highest volume, most productive corridors: Central Avenue (near Tropicana Field), 49th Street/E. Bay Drive, Gulf-to-Bay Boulevard, 4th Street/Ulmerton Road, US 19 (to include near Bright House Field), and Seminole Boulevard.
• Finally, in 2024, a rail system will be created connecting Downtown St. Petersburg with Downtown Clearwater.

So far, the Greenlight Pinellas proposal has several major endorsements, to include the Tampa Bay Bucs and Tampa Bay Rays. The Tampa Bay Business Journal also cites "a dozen Pinellas municipalities, 10 chambers of commerce in Pinellas and Hillsborough, and the Tampa Downtown Partnership support the proposal".

Demographically, Pinellas County is home to 929,048 residents. Assuming the Quinnipiac University Florida poll of 50% baseball fans, there are 464,524 baseball fans in Pinellas. According to the New York Times/Facebook poll, 56% of Pinellas County baseball fans are Rays fans. So that's 260,133 Rays fans in Pinellas County.

I am not completely sold that a few more buses will lead to a drastic change in attendance at Tropicana Field. Attendance may increase slightly as people take buses from work to the ballpark. Maybe the Rays and the city can create a joint ticket incentive that would promote the option until it becomes an engrained behavior.

(Although the Rays would be losing parking revenue, so how much they would discount ticket revenue to promote transportation options would probably depend on how much they calculate attendance and ticket sales would increase.)

Despite targeting the Greenlight Pinellas effort to Rays fans, we are still only talking about 260,133 Rays fans. Or 464,524 baseball fans total. Perhaps the ease of traffic and travel will convince these fans to go more often. Maybe these fans can be convinced to go to One More Game. Maybe better transportation options to Tropicana Field would convince more people to spend their leisure dollars on baseball and become baseball fans.

Of course, the Rays aren't the only team that might benefit from the proposed mass transit expansion. Bus routes running alongside Bright House Field in Clearwater and in the neighborhood of Auto Exchange Stadium in Dunedin could affect attendance in those parks.

There is some opposition to the measure. Critics say the tax hike is too high, light rail does not reduce congestion, it will hurt the poor and middle class, and that it threatens small businesses.

What the initiative does not do is create a rail connecting St. Petersburg to Tampa. While the initiative outlines a "proposed" rail line along the Howard Frankland Bridge, an article earlier this year in the Tampa Bay Business Journal claims the bridge won't be rail ready anytime soon, despite new construction.

In order to include light rail, the bridge would have to be widened; a causeway leading up to it would need to be built; the electrical component and other infrastructure would have to be added.

Or – another structure adjacent to the bridge could be constructed exclusively for the rail line.

The cost for either option: about $1 billion.

The new span, due for completion by 2024, is currently budgeted at $425 million.

Meanwhile, while ideas for progress are being considered north of Tropicana Field, the southern counties of Tampa Bay are preparing for the worst. Earlier this week, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported that due to a lack of north-south roads in Sarasota and Manatee County, commuters are using I-75 for local trips. Combined with a growing area population, this increased local use is congesting the interstate and hindering travel.

There is no arguing the Tampa Bay area needs mass transit. I would like to see train, bike lanes, self-driving cars, and hover chair people movers like in Wall-E. But I am not convinced these projects will have a significant effect on baseball attendance.

And besides, if Greenlight Pinellas is greenlighted, by the time it is completed, the Rays might be playing elsewhere in Tampa Bay.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 3, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 3, 2014:

Total Attendance: 11,297

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 71
• Attendance: 10,264
• Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer
• Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Marcus Stroman
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,734.38
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 15,592.88
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 14,039.33
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 17,642.57
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): None

Dunedin Blue Jays:

• Team Home Game #: 71 (FSL Playoffs - Game 1)
• Attendance: 1,038
• Starting Pitcher: Taylor Cole
• Opponent: Daytona Cubs
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Tayler Scott

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 2, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 2, 2014:

Total Attendance: 11,763

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 70
• Attendance: 10,125
• Starting Pitcher: Jeremy Hellickson
• Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: R.A. Dickey
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,841.10
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 16,259
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,941.63
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 19,876.6
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): None

Bradenton Marauders:

• Team Home Game #: 71 (FSL Playoffs - Game 1)
• Attendance: 1,638
• Starting Pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
• Opponent: Fort Myers Miracle
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Brett Lee

No other area games.