Friday, September 30, 2016

Tampa Bay Median Income not a good sign for local sports

Whenever I can, I write about regional income on this site. Personal income is of course what drives sports ticket purchases. Leisure spending comes from what is left from personal income after all the necessities are purchased. As much as sports fans don't want to admit it, sports are not a necessity.

Unfortunately, a recent article published by TBO.com states Tampa Bay residents might not have the money to support as many local sports as they would like. This is because Tampa Bay is 25th in Median Household Income among major metro areas.

Of the 24 major metro areas above Tampa Bay, 20 are home to 23 Major League Baseball teams (Chicago, NY, and LA have two teams each).
  • Washington, D.C.: $93,294 - YES
  • San Francisco: $88,518 - YES
  • Boston: $78,800 - YES
  • Seattle: $75,331 - YES
  • Baltimore: $72,520 - YES
  • Minneapolis-St. Paul: $71,008 - YES
  • Denver: $70,283 - YES
  • New York: $68,743 - YES (2)
  • San Diego: $67,320 - YES
  • Philadelphia: $65,123 - YES
  • Portland, Ore.: $63,850 - NO
  • Chicago: $63,153 - YES (2)
  • Los Angeles: $62,544 - YES (2)
  • Dallas: $61,644 - YES
  • Houston: $61,465 - YES
  • Atlanta: $60,219 - YES
  • St. Louis: $56,483 - YES
  • Riverside, Calif.: $56,087 - NO
  • Phoenix: $55,547 - YES
  • San Antonio: $55,083 - NO
  • Charlotte: $54,836 - NO
  • Detroit: $53,628 - YES
  • Orlando: $51,077 - NO
  • Miami: $50,441 - YES
  • Tampa Bay: $48,911 - YES

While cost of living is not considered in this and is a huge omission - there are state taxes and other more expensive costs in other areas - the article does mention home prices. It states the median home price in Tampa Bay and Atlanta (#16) are both $265,000. That means people in Tampa Bay have less money in their pockets after spending on their home than people in Atlanta.

That's not a good thing.

Fortunately, there is a lot of talk about increased employment in Tampa Bay. More research would have to be done to determine whether the majority of these jobs is above or below the median income. Because if below, they will bring down the median and only hurt Tampa Bay's ability to support sports in the region.

Monday, September 26, 2016

Jose Fernandez: The future of baseball in Florida cut tragically short



The baseball world was shocked Sunday morning with the news of the death of Jose Fernandez. The 24-year old Marlins pitcher was a two time all-star, a current 16-game winner, the face of the Marlins, and perhaps the most important baseball player in Florida.

Jose Fernandez was more important than Chris Archer. He was more important than Evan Longoria or Kevin Kiermaier. He was even more important his teammate Giancarlo Stanton. No other Florida baseball player compared to Jose Fernandez.

Many others closer to Fernandez know his story better than I do. For his past, read Jordan Conn's Grantland article "From Cuba, With Heat". Fernandez's story is one of Cuba, Tampa, and finally Miami. If it was only Cuba, it would be enough. If he was only from Tampa, that would also be enough.

But Jose Fernandez was more important than his past. He was the future of Florida baseball.

Fernandez made his debut with the Marlins the year after the Marlins debuted their new ballpark. He was a star from the start. For his career, he was 29-2 at Marlins Park and days he took the mound turned into "Jose Day"s with a higher average attendance than any other pitcher on the Marlins.

In 2015, for example, Jose Fernandez's starts averaged 3,500 fans above the Marlins average attendance. This chart I created last year showed he was one of the most popular aces in Major League Baseball.





In 2016, while his nine weekday starts drew similar to the Marlins average weekday attendance, Fernandez's six weekend starts drew over 2,500 more fans per game than the Marlins average weekend attendance.

People wanted to see Jose Fernandez pitch. He brought people to the ballpark.

As of 2013, there were nearly 2 million Cubans in America. Since relations with Cuban began to warm in 2014, Cuban immigration has increased. In Florida, there are over 1.2 million residents from Cuba, nearly 6.5% of the state population.

Of the 850,000 Cubans born in the US, over 600,000 were under the age of 40. With a passion for baseball high among the Cuban population, this group is the future of baseball fans. Jose Fernandez was ideal to attract this demographic.

Nearly half of all Cubans in America live in the Miami area. Many could personally relate to Jose Fernandez's story. Or they knew someone who had also made the tumultuous journey from the beaches of Cuba to the shores of America. As Dan LeBatard wrote, Jose Fernandez made them care about the person in the uniform. Through that, they also had a connection to the uniform itself.

They are a large reason 23% of Hispanics in Florida are Marlins fans.

Despite winning two World Series in their first 20 years as a franchise, the Marlins never had a transcendent player. They had Gary Sheffield, but he was too moody. They had Dontrelle Willis, but he quickly lost his mojo. They had Miguel Cabrera before he was a sure-fire Hall of Famer. They had Hanley Ramirez before he stopped hustling.

None of them were as infectious as Jose Fernandez. On his current path, he would have been the first Hall of Famer in a Marlins hat. Despite what Ken Rosenthal and other MLB writers wrote, there was no way the Marlins were ever going to trade Jose Fernandez. He had to remain a Marlin forever. He was too important.

The Marlins are currently in their third era of being playoff contenders. They are finally spending smartly. They have one of the best outfields in the Majors. They have a new ballpark, a new manager, and recently signed Giancarlo Stanton to a monster long-term contract. They were building a nucleus. In a land of splintered fanbases, it was again cool to be a Marlins fan.

The competition for fans is incredibly tough in Florida. With two Major League Baseball teams, two NBA teams, 3 NFL teams, 2 NHL teams, 5 major colleges, 14 Minor League baseball teams, and several other teams in several other sports, Florida is closer to oversaturation than any team having a monopoly of interest.

Jose Fernandez was a Florida star before he even stepped foot on the mound at Marlins Park. His exploits at Alonzo High School etched him in the annals of Tampa sports history. That he was drafted by the Marlins was fate looking out for Florida sports. The perfect player for a city doesn't come along very often. LeBron James for Cleveland. Derek Jeter for the Yankees. Jose Fernandez for the Marlins.

As Jose Fernandez was poised to grow, so to was the Marlins fanbase.

In death, Jose Fernandez will always be a Marlin and he will always be a superstar. He will be remembered as much for what he did as for what he could have become. The fact that the hearts of thousands of fans were broken yesterday was a testament to how important Fernandez had already become to baseball, to Tampa, to Miami, and to Florida.

Baseball in Miami will continue without Jose Fernandez. Life has a way of moving on. But the sun will never be as bright over Marlins Field.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 25, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 25, 2016:

Total Attendance: 26,443

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 81
  • Attendance: 26,443
  • Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi
  • Opponent: Boston Red Sox
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,878
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 18,052
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 18,996
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 15,891
  • Promotions (if any): Giveaway: DJ Kitty toothbrush holder
  • Other local events:


No other local games scheduled.

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 24, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 24, 2016:

Total Attendance: 25,641

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 80
  • Attendance: 25,641
  • Starting Pitcher: Matt Andriese
  • Opponent: Boston Red Sox
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Rick Porcello
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,746
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,120
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 20,910
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 16,107
  • Promotions (if any): Giveaway: Rays totebag
  • Other local events: USF Football @ Raymond James Stadium vs Florida State (attendance: 61,665)

No other local games scheduled.

Saturday, September 24, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Review - September 23, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 23, 2016:

Total Attendance: 20,543

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 79
  • Attendance: 20,543
  • Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer
  • Opponent: Boston Red Sox
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Drew Pomeranz
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,621
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 16,055
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 17,113
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 17,342
  • Promotions (if any): $15 Student Friday
  • Other local events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Friday, September 23, 2016

Tampa Bay area Minor League Baseball Playoff Attendance Review

A few weeks ago, the Florida State League season came to an end and the Bradenton Marauders won the FSL Championship. The championship concluded the FSL playoffs, which went two rounds and lasted from September 6th to September 13th.

While the Florida State League Playoffs are a big deal to the teams and to the organizations, they usually do not make much of a difference with the fanbases in the Tampa Bay area. As a matter of fact, often Florida State League playoffs in Tampa Bay draw less than the team's average attendance during the season.

According to other articles and observations, lack of interest in Minor League playoffs is a nationwide phenomenon.

This article from 2013, for example, details the attendance postseason decline for the Durham Bulls, one of the most popular teams in Minor League Baseball.

A few weeks ago, the Minor League Baseball Promotions account tweeted this:

Postseason attendance struggles are not limited to Tampa Bay or the Florida State League.

But unlike some teams that have little local competition, there are several factors unique to Tampa Bay and the Florida State League that might affect Minor League post season attendance.
  • College football season
  • Pro football season
  • Major League Baseball season
  • Labor Day beach visits
There isn't much buzz to Minor League Baseball in the Tampa Bay area to begin with, so when football - both college and the NFL begins - even the best accomplishments of the local Minor League teams will be pushed to the backpages. Combined with the fact that the Rays are still playing and the beach is still a viable option, it is no surprise the Florida State League playoffs struggle at the gate.

Our next step is to find out how much do they struggle and does attendance lag for one team moreso than any other? Does any of Tampa Bay's four Minor League teams do well at the gate in the postseason?

Since 2007, there have been 26 Florida State League playoff games in the Tampa Bay area. Each team has made the playoffs at least twice, with the Dunedin Blue Jays reaching the playoffs 5 times in the last 10 years (2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2016).

Total postseason games played by Tampa Bay area Florida State League teams:
  • Tampa Yankees: 10
  • Bradenton Marauders: 6
  • Dunedin Blue Jays: 6
  • Clearwater Threshers: 4
Let's look at each team's postseason games since 2007 and see how well they performed at the gate.

On the following charts "Team Avg Wkend/Wkday Attendance" is the average weekend or weekday attendance for that team for that year. Typically, there is a 30% or more difference in weekend attendance and little difference between individual weekdays or weekends.

Tampa Yankees:



The Yankees have played the most games due to their playoff runs - they won the FSL championship in 2009 and 2010 and lost in the finals in 2016. But only 6 of their 10 games were played in Steinbrenner Field. In 2016, Tampa Yankees playoff games were played at the park of their opponent, Dunedin and then Bradenton. This was due to construction scheduled at Steinbrenner Field (which might be a perfect example of the priority placed on the Florida State League playoffs.)

The Tampa Yankees only exceeded their average weekday/weekend attendance once - 9/8/2009 versus Brevard County.

Bradenton Maruaders:




The Marauders started play in 2010 and immediately made the FSL Playoffs. Attendance-wise, their 6 playoff games have had mixed success. Of their 4 weekday playoff games, on 9/6/2011 drew far less than their weekday average attendance.

In 2016, the Marauders played their first weekend playoff games. These games drew far less than the Marauders weekend average.

Dunedin Blue Jays:




The Dunedin Blue Jays have perhaps the best postseason attendance among Tampa Bay area Florida State League teams. They have exceed their average attendance in 50% of their postseason games since 2007. Unfortunately, their biggest difference came in their one 2016 postseason game. We will see what future trends are.

Clearwater Threshers:




The Clearwater Threshers have been in the fewest playoff games in the Tampa Bay area since 2007. Three of their games occurred in 2007 and each drew far less than their weekday average. Their sole playoff game in 2015 drew better than the 2007 games, but was still less than 60% of their average weekday attendance.

During the regular season, the Threshers, like most teams, capitalize on daily promotions. The late scheduling of the Minor League postseason usually prevents teams from scheduling promotions. The playoffs requires attention from fans of the team. It is the championship-caliber of play that should attract fans. Unfortunately, in the highly saturated Tampa Bay market, it is difficult for Minor League teams to attract fans purely on fan allegiance or quality of play.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 22, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 22, 2016:

Total Attendance: 13,355

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 78
  • Attendance: 13,355
  • Starting Pitcher: Blake Snell
  • Opponent: New York Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Luis Cessa
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,558
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,195
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,160
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 14,413
  • Promotions (if any): $15 Senior Thursday
  • Other local events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 21, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 21, 2016:

Total Attendance: 12,192

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 77
  • Attendance: 12,192
  • Starting Pitcher: Alex Cobb
  • Opponent: New York Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Masahiro Tanaka
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,586
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,675
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,818
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 12,397
  • Promotions (if any): $2 hot dog Wednesday
  • Other local events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Wednesday, September 21, 2016

Clearwater Threshers Attendance Analysis 2007-2016: By Month

Welcome to our 1st second-level analysis post on Clearwater Threshers attendance from 2007-2016. This post examines the Threshers attendance by month. This post will look at September games, but only as they pertain to the regular season. Postseason games will be examined at a later date.

First, a look at the Threshers average annual and per game attendance from 2007-2016. From 2007-2016, the Threshers average annual attendance was 175,478. The Threshers per game average in the 679 games at Bright House Field from 2007 to 2016 was 2,584.

Average attendance 2007-2016 chart. (DH = Double headers. Attendance is only counted for the second game.)




Average attendance 2005-2016 graph:






(Note: we have total attendance for 2005 and 2006, but not the amount of doubleheaders so the totals in the first chart shown would be off.)

Next, we will look at the Threshers average attendance by month from 2007 to 2016 as well as their best and worst average attended months.




The following graph depicts the Threshers average attendance per month.




This chart shows the annual attendance ranking by month each year spanning from 2007 to 2015 as well as the month’s average finish.

(Yellow highlights = Best month/ Red highlights = Worst month)




The next few charts depict average attendance per month per year from 2007 to 2016.

April average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




May average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




June average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




July average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




August average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




Analysis:

After returning to their 2010-2013 average in 2015, the Clearwater Threshers had the second highest attendance in franchise history in 2016.

To quote what I wrote in my first month-by-month analysis of the Threshers:

Threshers average per game attendance has steadily increased since 2007. Many of their best months since 2007 have come in the last three years. That could be because of better marketing, beginning post-game concerts, or perhaps lack of fan interest in going to Tropicana Field.

Looking by month, the growth of attendance in April is an interesting phenomenon. This might be due to good weather in the Florida spring or due to promotions.

Good nighttime weather might also be the reason the Threshers do well in attendance in May.

June is the Threshers worst average month. This might be because the Florida nights are getting warmer and more humid in June and occasional rain showers are beginning. Another factor could be that there typically aren't many great promotions in June. Surprisingly, we don't see a bump from May to June due to parents taking out-of-school kids to the ballpark.

July is the Threshers best month for average attendance. This is probably heavily due to their annual July 4th fireworks extravaganza. We've proven before that people love fireworks.

August/September attendance might be affected by two factors that will be worth exploring: correlation with the Rays in the pennant race and the weather.

The Threshers are the highest drawing Minor League team in the Tampa Bay area. Their attendance is far higher than many of the other teams. Looking at when people attend their games show us quite a bit about the patterns of baseball attendance in Clearwater, and Tampa Bay as a whole.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 20, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 20, 2016:

Total Attendance: 12,732

Tampa Bay Rays:

  • Team Home Game #: 76

  • Attendance: 12,732

  • Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly

  • Opponent: New York Yankees

  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Michael Pineda

  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,631

  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 18,459

  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,590

  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 13,639

  • Promotions (if any): $2 kids Tuesdays

  • Other local events: None

No other local games scheduled.

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 19, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 19, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games played.

Monday, September 19, 2016

Rays Fan of the Year Candidates fit stereotype

Sponsored by Esurance, Major League Baseball is having a vote for the 2016 MLB Fans of the Year. According to the website, each team has four candidates. The Rays candidates for Fan of the Year are as follows:




While these are probably great fans, great people, and great candidates, I have a slight problem with the Rays nominees:

They all fit the over-50 Rays fan stereotype. There also appear to be of the same racial category.

In an area known for retirees, there is a general thought that all Rays fans are elderly people. Of course, we know this isn't entirely true. Although according to the Public Policy Polling folks, the 45-and-above demographic likes the Rays statewide more than the under-45 demographic, there is still a vibrant fanbase under 45, especially in the Tampa Bay area.

Off the top of my head, other nominees could have been Brett Morgan, who has coordinated "Top Off The Trop" events over the last few years, the Rays Twins, or many, many others.

Although not every team, most teams have young people or minority fans nominated for Fan of the Year. That the Rays couldn't find one person who doesn't fit the elderly white baseball fan stereotype is disappointing. For a team struggling to build its fanbase, the inability to find a superfan under the age of 50 is not a good look.

Again, I wish the best of luck to Irving, Ky, Carol, and George. I am rooting for them. But I wish they had fellow nominees that didn't look like them.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 18, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 18, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games played.

Sunday, September 18, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 17, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 17, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games played.

Saturday, September 17, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 16, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 16, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games played.

Friday, September 16, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 15, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 15, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games played.

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 14, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 14, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games played.

Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Bradenton Marauders win Florida State League Championship

The Florida State League Championship series came to an end on Monday night and the Bradenton Marauders won their first ever FSL Championship. The Marauders defeated the Tampa Yankees 3 games to 1 in the best of five series.

Bradenton's championship was the first time since 2010 a Tampa Bay area team won the FSL Championship. The Tampa Yankees won the title in 2010 and 2009.

Tampa also was co-champion in 2004 and 2001.

Other area Florida State League champions include:
  • 1997 St. Petersburg Devil Rays
  • 1994 Tampa Yankees
  • 1993 Clearwater Phillies
  • 1986 St Petersburg Cardinals
  • 1975 St Petersburg Cardinals
  • 1973 St Petersburg Cardinals

With Bradenton, Tampa, and Dunedin in the FSL playoffs, there was a 75% chance a team from Tampa Bay would bring home the crown. Despite the abundance of local teams, attendance for local Florida State League playoff games were lower than average.

We will have more research on Florida State League playoff attendance in an upcoming post.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 13, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 13, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

No area games played.

Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 12, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 12, 2016:

Total Attendance: 657

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: FSL Championship Game 4
  • Attendance: 657
  • Starting Pitcher: Josh Rogers
  • Opponent: Bradenton Marauders
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Jonathan Brubaker

No other area games played.

Monday, September 12, 2016

Attendance Review: 2016 Clearwater Threshers

Welcome to our tenth attendance review of the Clearwater Threshers. Today we look at the home attendance of the 2016 Clearwater Threshers.

Overview: The Clearwater Threshers began play in the Florida State League in 1985. The Threshers moved to Bright House Field in 2004. Bright House Field is also the spring training home of the Philadelphia Phillies. In 2013, the population of Clearwater was 109,703.

Clearwater Threshers 2016:

Home Games: 68

Total attendance: 181,594 (up 4.19% from 2015: 174,283)

Per Game Average: 2,710 (down 0.4% from 2015: 2,723)

Highest attended game: 9,012 on Sunday, July 3rd vs Brevard County

Lowest attended game: 1,257 on Sunday, Aug 21st vs Daytona

Double headers: 1 (May 15th)

Cancellations: 1 (June 6th)

Average time of game: 2 hours, 36 minutes

Notable rehab assignments: None

Other notable appearances: None
Breakdown:

(red highlight = below annual average of 2,710)

Overall:




By Month:




The following graph depicts the average attendance by month.




By Day of the Week:




Threshers attendance increased 27.7% on the weekends compared to their average Monday through Thursday attendance.
  • Mon-Thurs average attendance: 2,290 (35 games)
  • Fri-Sun average attendance: 3,170 (32 games)
  • Increase: 27.7%

The following graph depicts the average attendance by day.




The following chart shows how often each day outdrew the game prior.




By Opponent:




By Starting Pitcher:




This chart depicts how attendance reacted from one starter to the next. If a pitcher is a great draw, the percentage between he and the prior starter should be higher.




Top 10 attended games:




Average post-game concert attendance: 3,085 (9 games)

Average post-game fireworks attendance: 5,520 (7 games)

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 11, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 11, 2016:

Total Attendance: 513

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: FSL Championship Game 3
  • Attendance: 513
  • Starting Pitcher: Yefrey Ramirez
  • Opponent: Bradenton Marauders
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Mitch Keller

No other area games played.

Sunday, September 11, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 10, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 10, 2016:

Total Attendance: 627

Bradenton Marauders:
  • Team Home Game #: FSL Championship Game 2
  • Attendance: 627
  • Starting Pitcher: Austin Coley
  • Opponent: Tampa Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Luis Cedeno

No other area games played.

Saturday, September 10, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 9, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 9, 2016:

Total Attendance: 470

Bradenton Marauders:
  • Team Home Game #: FSL Championship Game 1
  • Attendance: 470
  • Starting Pitcher: Yuedy Garcia
  • Opponent: Tampa Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Domingo German

No other area games played.

Friday, September 9, 2016

Exploring the Rays Popularity Through Polling: 2016 Part 2

(This is an update to posts in 2014 and 2015 and in February 2016.)

Since 2001, Public Policy Polling has conducted surveys to track the opinions of the American people. While most of their polls are political, they sometimes ask sports-related questions.

Beginning in 2011, and continuing in 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, and for the second time in 2016 the folks at PPP asked Florida residents about their preference of baseball teams, to include the Rays.

This chart depicts the percent of people who favor the Rays over any other team.




Other teams receiving votes in September 2016 included the Yankees (15%), Marlins (14%), Braves (11%), Red Sox (9%), Cubs (5%), Mets (4%), Phillies (2%), and Other/Not a Baseball Fan (26%).

There doesn't seem to be a correlation between sample size and popularity, Rays popularity has increased  and decreased as sampled size increased and decreased through the years.

The following segments will explain how the Rays fared in PPP polling in various demographics.

Rays Popularity by Gender

The following chart depicts the Rays popularity among women and men who prefer the Rays over any other team:




The following graph depicts the previous chart:




While female preference for the Rays stayed the same, popularity among men increased 3%. Popularity among both sexes is now better it than it has been since 2012.

Rays Popularity by Political Party

The following chart depicts the percentages of people who prefer the Rays segmented by political party.




The following graph depicts the previous chart:




In September 2016, the Rays saw increases from both Democrats and Independents but saw a drop in their Republican fanbase. And for the first time, Republicans are the smallest percentage of fans.

Before I make any conclusions here, there could be a lot to this. Currently, the Republican party is not seeing eye-to-eye with itself. There is a lot of party dissension, especially in regards to voting for president.

If we look at another party of the PPP release that divided those polled into political ideology, we see a more evenly divided picture.
  • Very Conservative: 23%
  • Somewhat Conservative: 10%
  • Moderate: 16%
  • Somewhat Liberal: 10%
  • Very Liberal: 16%

So what we might have is many conservatives calling themselves "independent" and not Republicans.

Rays Popularity by Race

The following chart depicts the percentages of people who prefer the Rays segmented by race.




The following graph depicts the previous chart:




The Rays popularity among Hispanics and Others continued to grow considerably. That's a good sign. The team's popularity among Whites increased only 1% and their popularity among African-Americans dropped only 1%. While they are only 1% below their highest approval rating in the African American community, they need to keep pushing among the White population to return to their 2012 levels of approval.

According to the Pew Research Center, there are also over 4 million Hispanics in Florida and Hispanics make up 23% of the state population. It is very possible the Rays exhibition in Cuba helped out their statewide popularity in the Hispanic community. That is a very good sign and evidence the trip to Havana was worth the investment.

Rays Popularity by Age Group

The following chart depicts the percentages of people who prefer the Rays segmented by age:




The following graph depicts the previous chart:




First, the good news: the Rays continue to increase in popularity among the 45 and older demographics. Although still not where they were in 2012, there are slight increases in those the 45-65 and 65 and up age groups.

The bad news: while the 30-45 demographic seems to be recovering from a severe drop in 2014, the 18-29 demographic has begun falling again from 13% in 2015 to 10% in late 2016. This is particularly disappointing as this is the demographic the Rays are always talking about: the kids who grew up with the Rays existing. They are starting to buy homes and tickets and have families. They should be Rays fans.

Curiously, we see the exact opposite with the Marlins. In the September 2016 PPP survey, the Marlins trended much better with 18-30 and 30-45 age groups (19% each) and poorly with the 46-60 and 60 and above crowds (9% and 10%, respectively).

According to the polling, the Marlins are doing better winning younger fans than the Rays. The Rays, however, are more popular with the older crowd than the Marlins. Perhaps this can be explained by the new stadium. Perhaps the allure of the new stadium has won the Marlins the younger, hip crowd. Meanwhile, the Rays, with their outdated stadium are attracting life-long baseball fans who don't concern themselves with amenities.

Gains/Losses since earlier in 2016

The following chart shows the Rays gains or losses for several demographic segments reported February 2016 and September 2016.




Of the 14 segments, the Rays gained in popularity among 9 segments. Three segments had decreases and two stayed the same.

Beginning with the declines, I explained the oddity of the 6% decline in Republican support earlier. I would expect that to increase after the presidential election in November.

The rest of the results are solid news for the Rays. They gained considerably in two segments: Independents and Hispanics. As explained above, we can explaining both of the rise of the independents and the increased support from the Hispanic community.

The Rays saw a steep decline in popularity across several segments from 2012 to 2014. Perhaps the allure of being new contenders wore off and the Rays entered a new reality among Florida baseball fans, where they are no longer new, but expected to contend. Whatever the case, they are slowly but surely recovering according to Public Policy Polling.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 8, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 8, 2016:

Total Attendance: 528

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: PLAYOFFS Game 3
  • Attendance: 528
  • Starting Pitcher: Nestor Cortes
  • Opponent: Dunedin Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Conor Fisk
  • Note: In Dunedin due to renovations at Steinbrenner Field

No other area games played.

Thursday, September 8, 2016

Clearwater Threshers finish with 2nd highest attendance in franchise history

According to a Clearwater Threshers' press release, attendance for the Threshers in 2016 was the second most in franchise history, behind only their 2014 attendance. The 2016 total of 181,594 was only 13,469 behind 2014's 195,063.

The following chart depicts the Threshers attendance since 2005 in order of highest attendance.



The following graph depicts the above chart.




The team's 2014 attendance was the second-highest in Florida State League history, only behind the St Petersburg Cardinals in 1989. The Threshers 2016 attendance was 20,789 behind the '89 Cardinals 202,383.

The Threshers are one of the few teams in the Tampa Bay area that does daily promotions. They are also the only Florida State League team that hosts post-game concerts and weekly fireworks. The following chart lists the Threshers top 10 highest attended home dates in 2016.




I will have a more in-depth breakdown of the Threshers 2016 attendance in an upcoming yearly attendance review.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 7, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, September 7, 2016:

Total Attendance: 10,537

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 75
  • Attendance: 10,537
  • Starting Pitcher: Drew Smyly
  • Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Dylan Bundy
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,670
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 13,700
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,871
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 13,709
  • Promotions (if any): $2 hot dog Wednesday
  • Other local events: None

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: PLAYOFFS Game 2
  • Attendance: 526
  • Starting Pitcher: Josh Rogers
  • Opponent: Dunedin Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Jon Harris
  • Note: In Dunedin due to renovations at Steinbrenner Field

No other area games played.

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 6, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Tuesday, September 6, 2016:

Total Attendance: 12,737

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 74
  • Attendance: 12,207
  • Starting Pitcher: Jake Odorizzi
  • Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Yovanni Gallardo
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,739
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 14,096
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 12,577
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 15,155
  • Promotions (if any): $2 kid Tuesdays
  • Other local events: None

Dunedin Blue Jays:
  • Team Home Game #: PLAYOFFS Game 1
  • Attendance: 530
  • Starting Pitcher: Luis Santos
  • Opponent: Tampa Yankees
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Yefrey Ramirez

No other area games played.

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 5, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Monday, September 5, 2016:

Total Attendance: 12,256

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 73
  • Attendance: 12,256
  • Starting Pitcher: Matt Andriese
  • Opponent: Baltimore Orioles
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Ubaldo Jimenez
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,787
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 14,365
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 13,861
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 14,915
  • Promotions (if any): None
  • Other local events: None

No other area games played.

Monday, September 5, 2016

Dunedin Blue Jays Mascot wins Minor League Mascot of the Year



Every year, Minor League Baseball holds a contest for Minor League Mascot of the Year. Over 100 mascots are pitted against each other in an online vote to determine the best mascot of the minors. Mascots are judged on appearance, talent, and their thoughts on world peace.

(Ok, maybe not the last. But their dance moves are highly analyzed.)

Florida State League mascots have done well in this contest in the past, with the Clearwater Threshers' Phinley winning in 2014. This year, in a very surprise victory, Dunedin's D-Jay took home the trophy.

Even MinorLeagueBaseball.com writer Danny Wild seemed impressed with D-Jays' win.
It's an impressive accomplishment for a club that ranks among the lowest in average attendance, especially compared to big-market Triple-A teams like Omaha and Tacoma.

Therein lies the surprise. Dunedin is one of the smallest markets for Minor League Baseball in the US. The team is at the bottom of the Florida State League and nearly all of Minor League Baseball in attendance every year. There is even talk that the Blue Jays might be leaving Dunedin.

In Wild's article, he mentions votes coming in from Canada, as Toronto residents supported their Blue Jays affiliate mascot. But could the contest have been a statement by the people of Dunedin to the Blue Jays organization that baseball is important to the area? That is probably how the town will spin it when they discuss a spring training extension with the Blue Jays.

It is possible however, that D-Jay could be more popular than the team he represents. That's not unusual, as this has been the case for the San Diego Chicken for decades.

Whatever the case and whatever his future, D-Jay is flying high as the 2016 Minor League Mascot of the Year.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 4, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 4, 2016:

Total Attendance: 15,302

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 72
  • Attendance: 13,884
  • Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer
  • Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: JA Happ
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,836
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 16,985
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 18,423
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 17,129
  • Promotions (if any): Giveaway: Superhero Cape Socks / Bark at the Park
  • Other local events: None

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: 69 / 70
  • Attendance: 661
  • Starting Pitcher: Domingo German / Stephen Tarpley
  • Opponent: Lakeland Flying Tigers
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Spencer Turnbull / AJ Ladwig
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 1,163
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 880
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 875
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 941 / 661
  • Promotions (if any): Sunday Funday

Dunedin Blue Jays:
  • Team Home Game #: 67 / 68
  • Attendance: 757 / Cancelled
  • Starting Pitcher: Brad Allen
  • Opponent: Clearwater Threshers
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Brandon Liebrandt
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 770
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 753
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 1,029
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 581
  • Promotions (if any): Family Funday Sunday

No other area games played.

Sunday, September 4, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 3, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 3, 2016:

Total Attendance: 19,790

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 71
  • Attendance: 14,353
  • Starting Pitcher: Blake Snell
  • Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Marco Estrada
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,864
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,330
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 20,516
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 14,531
  • Promotions (if any): Logan Forsythe bobblehead giveaway
  • Other local events: USF Football Game @ Raymond James Stadium (attendance: 35,976)

Clearwater Threshers:
  • Team Home Game #: 68
  • Attendance: 5,437
  • Starting Pitcher: Luke Leftwich
  • Opponent: Dunedin Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Conor Fisk
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 2,710
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 2,941
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 4,603
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 3,300
  • Promotions (if any): Fireworks - Fan Appreciation Finale

No other area games played.

Saturday, September 3, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 2, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Friday, September 2, 2016:

Total Attendance: 14,586

Tampa Bay Rays:
  • Team Home Game #: 70
  • Attendance: 12,602
  • Starting Pitcher: Alex Cobb
  • Opponent: Toronto Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Marcus Stroman
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 15,886
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 17,702
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 16,827
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 12,602
  • Promotions (if any): $15 Student Rush
  • Other local events: None

Clearwater Threshers:
  • Team Home Game #: 67
  • Attendance: 1,984
  • Starting Pitcher: Elniery Garcia
  • Opponent: Dunedin Blue Jays
  • Opponent Starting Pitcher: Jon Harris
  • Avg Attendance to Date: 2,669
  • Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 2,663
  • Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 2,908
  • Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 2,422
  • Promotions (if any): Free Shirt Friday / Stormbringer Post-Game Concert

No other area games played.

Friday, September 2, 2016

Tampa Bay Rays August 2016 Attendance Review

Welcome to our fifth monthly review of the Tampa Rays 2016 attendance. This post will look at attendance in games played at Tropicana Field from August 1, 2016 to August 25, 2016.
  • Total August 2016 Tampa Bay Rays home attendance: 220,823
  • Average attendance per game: 12,989
  • Highest attendance: 17,685 on Saturday, August 21st
  • Lowest attendance: 10,251 on Wednesday, August 17th
  • Average August game time: 3 hours
  • Highest attended series: 50,870 vs Royals, August 1-4
  • Lowest attended series: 31,461 vs Padres, August 15-17
  • Competing events:
    • August 6: Tampa Bay Rowdies at Al Lang Stadium (attendance: 4,997)
    • August 15: Def Leppard concert @ Amphitheater
  • Total Tampa Bay Minor League August attendance: 57,135
  • Tampa Bay Minor League attendance per game: 1,146 (49 games)

Comparing August 2016 with previous years

The following chart compares August 2016 average attendance to other recent years.




The average August 2016 attendance was 27.7% less (4,969 fans per game) than the August 2015 per game average. August 2016 was the lowest average August attendance since 2003, when it was 11,103 per game. August attendance at Tropicana Field has decreased 4 years in a row and 49% since 2009.




Here is another argument against the Wins=Attendance theory. The Rays have had winning records in 8 of the last 10 seasons, yet their August attendance has trended downward. Fans are more likely to see a win in August and go home emotionally satisfied.

Weekdays vs Weekends

Let’s now look at the Rays August attendance on weekdays (Mon-Thurs) and weekends (Fri-Sun). As I have pointed out many times, the Rays usually have one of the biggest differences in Major League Baseball in regards to weekday versus weekend attendance.

This chart shows the Rays average weekday attendance in August since 2007.




In 2016, Rays average August weekday attendance was lower than it has been in at least 10 years.The Rays played 11 weekday games in August 2016 as compared to 6 weekend games, so these games weigh heavily on the overall average.

The following chart shows Rays average weekend attendance in August since 2007.




In 2016, Rays average weekend attendance was lower than it has been since 2006 (10,071). This despite the Rays hosting the Red Sox and the defending World Champion Royals. The series versus the Red Sox from August 22 to August 25 drew and average of 12,195. weekend. As I have written about before, the idea that the Red Sox attract high amounts of visiting fans to Tropicana Field should be killed, entombed in cement, and thrown in the bottom of the bay. It's not a thing anymore.

The Rays saw a 25.4% increase in weekend attendance over weekday attendance in 2016.
  • 2016 August weekend games (average attendance): 11 games (14,952)
  • 2016 August weekday games (average attendance): 6 games (11,919)
  • Percentage increase on weekends: 25.4%

Conclusion

August 2016 was a rough month for Rays attendance. August was the first month in 2016 that attendance never once topped 20,000. It was the lowest August average attendance in over a decade and neither weekdays nor weekends did well.

On a positive note, the Rays so far have not drawn less than 10,000 this year to any game for the first time in 2011. Last year, they drew under 10,000 nine times. There are only 12 games scheduled at Tropicana Field in September 2016, and 6 are against the Yankees and Red Sox, so I would assume the Rays will safely improve on that dubious distinction.

What to expect in September? With the Rays out of contention, September will be more of what we have seen this season. On a positive note, there is the final appearance of the Red Sox's David Ortiz, so there might be a bump for that if there are Red Sox fans still in the area. And the Yankees also visit St. Petersburg, which may make for above average attendance.

The Rays may also start preparing for next season, both on the field and in the marketing department. We already saw them freeze season ticket prices but I am curious to see if there will be any other announcements for 2017 ticket holders.

As the season concludes, we might also see the Rays begin to study their season ticket holder base. Who do they have? How many games did they go to, why, and when? Knowing the business is an important first step in improving. We already have seen the Rays reach out to academia to get their insight on marketing. We will see what other improvements are made.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - September 1, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Thursday, September 1, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

Dunedin Blue Jays:
  • Team Home Game #: 67
  • Attendance: POSTPONED (Rain)
  • Opponent: Clearwater Threshers

Tampa Yankees:
  • Team Home Game #: 69
  • Attendance: POSTPONED (Rain)
  • Opponent: Lakeland Flying Tigers

No other area games played.

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Report - August 31, 2016

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Wednesday, August 31, 2016:

Total Attendance: 0

Dunedin Blue Jays:
  • Team Home Game #: 67 / 68
  • Attendance: CANCELLED (Rain)
  • Opponent: Tampa Yankees

Bradenton Marauders:
  • Team Home Game #: 68
  • Attendance: CANCELLED (Rain)
  • Opponent: Jupiter Hammerheads

No other area games played.