Baseball and the lack of public transportation in Tampa Bay

A few weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Times produced an amazing look at the quagmire that is Tampa Bay transportation.

Among some of the most damning findings:

• Out of the country’s 30 largest metro areas, the region ranks 29th in four of six common ways the federal government measures public transit coverage and usage.
• Tampa Bay spends far less on transit each year than any other major metro area.
• Almost every other top-20 metro area has at least 600 buses. Tampa Bay has the fewest, about 360.
• Denver, Pittsburgh and Baltimore spend twice as much on bus alone as Tampa Bay, despite being similar sizes.

Those are just the biggest points. The story details several Tampa area workers and their struggle getting from their homes to their place of work.

While the focus of the article was specifically on employment and transportation, we could easily make the connection to recreation and transportation. If Tampa Bay is struggling to get people to work, are they also struggling to get people to leisure activities such as the beach, downtowns, or sports stadiums? How many buses pass Tropicana Field? Are there bus stops near the Trop? How often do buses pass? How many people can reasonably be expected to take public transportation to games?

Tampa Bay will never be New York City, where thousands of people take the train to the games after work. Tampa Bay doesn't have the population nor the infrastructure to make that happen in the next 100 years.

But even against comparable markets, Tampa Bay is struggling to get people to sporting events. Especially baseball.

I have often compared the Tampa Bay baseball market to Pittsburgh. The two metro areas have the same sports (MLB, NFL, and NHL), they have similar populations, and both the Rays and Pirates were subject to relocation rumors when attendance was a struggle.

The Tampa Bay Times article depicted how many jobs people could get to via public transportation in various cities. For many cities, sports stadiums are along a major job and transportation corridor. Here is the Pittsburgh transportation/job map followed by a Google map plotting PNC Park, home of the Pirates.

Here is a similar map for St. Petersburg and Tropicana Field.

The inability of public transportation to get people to Tropicana Field is definitely a factor in Rays attendance. I don't have the numbers of how many people take public transportation to Pirates games, but the potential to take public transportation is definitely greater in Pittsburgh.

The Tampa Bay Times also compares Tampa Bay transportation to Phoenix. Both regions have relatively new MLB teams, have extensive Spring Training in February and March, and according to the Times,

Phoenix and Tampa Bay faced many of the same challenges in the mid ’90s. Both Arizona and Florida are small-government states with limited transit funding. Both struggle with car cultures and swaths of sprawl, though Phoenix’s is much worse, ranking 14 spots behind Tampa Bay in density among the top 50 metro areas.

Phoenix politicians, however, invested heavily in public transportation increasing ridership from 24th nationally to 14th. Tampa Bay's ridership rose only from 28th to 26th.

Public transportation affects so much of life in metro areas. Investment in public transportation is a necessity that Tampa Bay is sadly lacking in. Jeff Vinik of the Lightning calls it the "Achilles Heel" of Tampa Bay's economic growth. And his team plays in Downtown Tampa.

Rays ownership hasn't been as vocal about referendums and the current plight of Tampa Bay public transportation. On one hand, they are not as invested in the community economically as Vinik, who is rebuilding a significant portion of Downtown Tampa. On the other, there are so many other factors and self-inflicted wounds affecting attendance for the Rays to focus on public transportation as a cure-all. People would surely throw those factors at the Rays as deflection from the public transportation mess.

But there is no doubt, public transportation is a HUGE issue affecting baseball attendance, leisure activities, work/life balance, and every other facet of life in Tampa Bay.

Is Tampa Bay too tangled with traffic to keep baseball?

There was a very interesting article in the Tampa Bay Business Journal recently. Written by reporter Janelle Irwin, the article discussed how bad Tampa Bay traffic congestion really is. According to the TTBJ, information from the Florida Department of Transportation states I-275 is at or above capacity throughout most of the region.

Capacity is the “maximum sustainable hourly flow rate at which persons or vehicles can be expected to pass through a point or uniform section of a land or roadway during a given time period,” according to FDOT.

The TBBJ also states:

I-275 operates at capacity from the Hillsborough County line to Kennedy Boulevard – think the span of the Howard Frankland Bridge at the hump past the Veteran’s interchange – and then again from Fowler Avenue to Fletcher Avenue, the two exits for the University of South Florida, which serves as Hillsborough County’s largest employment center.

In Pinellas County, I-275 is over capacity between the two downtown connectors and from 22nd Avenue North to Gandy Boulevard. Spans of interstate functioning at capacity run from Gandy to Roosevelt and from Ulmerton to the County line. That’s basically the entire stretch of I-275 from 22nd Avenue North in St. Petersburg to Fletcher Avenue that is running at or above capacity.

The TBBJ published the following map of Hillsborough County to depict the results of the Dept of Transportation:

The red lines are every road that is at or over capacity. That's what my GPS looks like every day.

Of course, Tropicana Field is not in the middle of this traffic mess. It is on the far outside. 22 blocks south of the Pinellas congestion, in an area that includes probably close to if not less than 25% of the region's population.

This a major problem for baseball in Tampa Bay. The region not only needs a new baseball stadium, it also needs a major transit transformation. There is talk that if traffic doesn't improve, Tampa Bay could lose out on businesses far more important than baseball. The Rays have survived with traffic and congestion as it is. It has not been a prosperous survival, but they have been profitable, thanks to other revenue streams.

But congestion could cost Tampa Bay other corporations who decide not to relocate or build in the area due to the traffic mess.

Both expanding the highways, increasing mass transit, and building a new baseball stadium cost hundreds of millions of dollars. The area cannot build a new baseball field and not improve transit. And plunging all the money into transit and telling the Rays and MLB to fund the stadium themselves might mean the team moves to other pastures.

So a lot of money needs to be spent on many projects simultaneously.

As far as other baseball in the area, Bradenton's McKechnie Field, Dunedin's Florida Auto Exchange Stadium also sit outside the traffic congestion, but Minor League teams only need far less people in the stands to fill the ballpark. But with four Minor League alternatives closer and more convenient, why should Tampa Bay residents regularly deal with the stress of overcrowded traffic congestion to see baseball?

The impact of traffic on baseball attendance in Tampa Bay can not be understated. It is one of the most under-understood parts of the problem.

TomTom Traffic Index 2016 and the effect on baseball in Tampa Bay

Every year, TomTom.com releases traffic congestion study for the entire world. They look at traffic jams and gridlock and rate all the world's cities on a gigantic scale.

If you have driven in the Tampa Bay area, you know Tampa Bay had to make the US list somewhere. While 98th most congested in the world, Tampa is the 15th most congested city in America, slightly better than Atlanta, Boston, and San Diego, but worse than Orlando, Philadelphia, and Baton Rogue.

Here is TomTom's latest Tampa rating.

For those who don't want to embiggen the graphic, here is the important data:

Traffic in Tampa adds an additional 24% to traffic time. So if traveling 60 minutes, add an additional 15 during congested times. Highways add only 15%, but non-highway roads add 27%. The average extra travel time in the Tampa Bay area is 27 minutes per day due to traffic.

I'll be using these numbers in conjunction with the zip code distance data to figure how far fans have to travel and how long it takes them to get to baseball.

According to TomTom, the most congested day of 2015 was Wednesday, June 10th.

On June 10th, the Rays played the Angels in front of 10,088 fans. At the time, it was the third lowest attended game of the year.

Also on June 10, the Bradenton Marauders drew 558 fans to their game against the Clearwater Threshers.

But all was not terrible. The Dunedin Blue Jays held a day game that day with a Camp Day promotion. The Jays avoidance of traffic times and promotion allowed them to draw 1,327, their fifth highest attendance of 2015.

Tampa Bay media links of note

Over the last few weeks, the Tampa Bay Business Journal, Tampa Bay Times, and DRaysBay published several articles that had bearing on the Tampa Bay baseball market.

The Tampa Bay Business Journal conducted a poll of their readers to determine the most influential people in Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay Lightning owner Jeff Vinik received the most votes: 44%. Rays owner Stu Sternberg received only 5% of the total votes.

I've stated this before. There is a huge difference in public perception between Jeff Vinik and any member of the Rays front office. Vinik is everywhere and is heavily invested in the community. Sternberg does not live in Tampa Bay and is rarely seen.

On a positive note, the Tampa Bay Business Journal listed the Top 25 Largest Job Announcements in Tampa Bay in 2015. Leading the way was Amazon.com, and their huge warehouse complex south of Tampa in the Ruskin-Bradenton area, which is hiring 2,000 workers in the area. The Amazon warehouse is 36.4 miles from Tropicana Field but is closest to the Bradenton Marauders home at McKechnie Field (24.7 miles).

While jobs are always a good thing, the Tampa Bay Business Journal also reports that the Tampa Bay area is 15th in the nation in income inequality. So people are getting paid, but there is a wide difference between the top earners and the bottom earners. That is not surprising in a region where our major industries are:

• Avionics, Defense and Marine Electronics
• Business and Information Services
• Financial Services
• Manufacturing (Microelectronics, Medical Devices)
• Marine Sciences
• Port/Maritime
• Tourism

When tourism makes the list, you know there is going to be a gap in high and low earners. With a small market for professional sports, an area with high income inequality means only the high earners can afford luxury items such as season tickets, or even multiple trips to the ballpark.

Affording tickets is one problem, getting to the ballpark is another. The Tampa Bay Times had two interesting articles discussing transit in the Tampa Bay area. On Tuesday, January 19th, the Times wrote that the Tampa Bay Express expansion project was rated among the US's worst highway projects. It's not good when even "FDOT has acknowledged that adding the express lanes won't solve congestion problems", but still they are pushing for the project.

As we have talked about before, transit is a huge reason why people are not traveling to the far reaches of St Petersburg for Rays games.

Of course, there is slow movement in the Rays hunt for a new stadium. We can definitely expect several locations for a new ballpark to emerge over the next year. The fine folks over at DRaysBay looks at one possible location: the ConAgra plant in downtown Tampa. According to Daniel Russell, despite it's ideal downtown locale, we need to cross that location off the list.

One location that is still being considered is the Tampa Park apartments, but according to Field of Schemes, it might not look good for Mayor Buckhorn if he decides to relocated low income people from that area of the city.

New poll on Tampa Bay Transit and effects on baseball

Last week, another interesting poll was published by the Tampa Bay Times and 10News/WTSP. While their last poll was very Rays-related in regards to where a new stadium should be and whether residents care if the Rays stay or go, the more recent poll asks about regional transit. While transit affects everywhere and every business, it is particularly important for baseball in the region, especially since distance and traffic is cited as one of the many reasons fans don't attend games at Tropicana Field during the work week.

According to the poll, 67% of respondents believe traffic has gotten worse recently. Only 4% believe traffic has gotten better. The article also mentions 110,000 people have moved to the area in the past 5 years and with gas prices lower, traffic is getting worse.

That's a recipe for disaster if your business is difficult to get to, as the Rays' business is. Meanwhile, Minor League and other alternative entertainment venues are much closer to the population center.

I like to make the comparison to pizza. The Rays might be the best pizza place in the region, with the best food and quality ingredients. But if it is difficult to get to, people would rather get a lower quality product when time is of the essence. Remove the time variable, then they will seek out the better product. Keep the time variable, and they might request the product to be delivered, which is equivalent to watching a game on TV, which Rays fans do well.

So what is the solution to the increasing transit trouble?

That's the multi-billion dollar question.

According to Tampa Mayor Bob Buckhorn:

"It's a recognition that as we continue to grow, in the absence of doing something, it's only going to get worse and worse," Buckhorn said. "Our quality of life will diminish each and every day if we don't do something.

"People are frustrated because they have no options other than their cars. And I think they want solutions."

Not only do people need solutions, but so do businesses such as the Tampa Bay Rays. Otherwise, they will keep losing the battle for butts in the seats.

Effect of Future Transit and Traffic on Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance

A few weeks ago, data journalism site FiveThirtyEight.com looked at public transportation use in cities and towns in the US. They ranked all the metropolitan centers with populations over 65,000 and determined which area got the most bang out of public transportation.

With 229.8 trips per capita in 2013, New York City blew away the competition. Also in the top ten were San Francisco-Oakland, Boston, Washington DC, Chicago, and Philadelphia.

Out of 290 areas, Tampa-St. Petersburg ranked 124th with only 12.3 trips per capita in 2013. Of the 21 areas with over 2 million people, Tampa-St. Petersberg ranked 20th, trailing only Detroit.

People often claim traffic and congestion is a major cause in the Rays lack of attendance. They claim the geographic layout of the area and the location of Tropicana Field prevents easy flow from population centers to Rays games.

According to traffic research site TomTom, the Tampa Bay area is the 20th most congested metro area in the United States. TomTom estimates there is a 28 minute delay for every hour traveled during peak driving periods (morning rush, post-work rush).

So what if anything is being done that might reduce congestion and allow a better flow to baseball in the Tampa Bay area?

This November, the Greenlight Pinellas proposal comes to ballot. According to its website, the Greenlight Pinellas proposal is a 10-year program designed to reform and improve public transportation in Pinellas County, home of the Tampa Bay Rays, Clearwater Threshers, and Dunedin Blue Jays.

If approved, Greenlight Pinellas would implement the following:

• Limited improvements in 2015, to include a trolley service and a regional Saturday service.
• 2016 would see expanded night and weekend service times, increased bus frequencies, Increase mid-day frequencies for local routes, trolleys, and connector, a new regional express service, circulator service, and seasonal trolley service.
• From 2018 to 2021, a rapid Bus Service is planned for Pinellas County's highest volume, most productive corridors: Central Avenue (near Tropicana Field), 49th Street/E. Bay Drive, Gulf-to-Bay Boulevard, 4th Street/Ulmerton Road, US 19 (to include near Bright House Field), and Seminole Boulevard.
• Finally, in 2024, a rail system will be created connecting Downtown St. Petersburg with Downtown Clearwater.

So far, the Greenlight Pinellas proposal has several major endorsements, to include the Tampa Bay Bucs and Tampa Bay Rays. The Tampa Bay Business Journal also cites "a dozen Pinellas municipalities, 10 chambers of commerce in Pinellas and Hillsborough, and the Tampa Downtown Partnership support the proposal".

Demographically, Pinellas County is home to 929,048 residents. Assuming the Quinnipiac University Florida poll of 50% baseball fans, there are 464,524 baseball fans in Pinellas. According to the New York Times/Facebook poll, 56% of Pinellas County baseball fans are Rays fans. So that's 260,133 Rays fans in Pinellas County.

I am not completely sold that a few more buses will lead to a drastic change in attendance at Tropicana Field. Attendance may increase slightly as people take buses from work to the ballpark. Maybe the Rays and the city can create a joint ticket incentive that would promote the option until it becomes an engrained behavior.

(Although the Rays would be losing parking revenue, so how much they would discount ticket revenue to promote transportation options would probably depend on how much they calculate attendance and ticket sales would increase.)

Despite targeting the Greenlight Pinellas effort to Rays fans, we are still only talking about 260,133 Rays fans. Or 464,524 baseball fans total. Perhaps the ease of traffic and travel will convince these fans to go more often. Maybe these fans can be convinced to go to One More Game. Maybe better transportation options to Tropicana Field would convince more people to spend their leisure dollars on baseball and become baseball fans.

Of course, the Rays aren't the only team that might benefit from the proposed mass transit expansion. Bus routes running alongside Bright House Field in Clearwater and in the neighborhood of Auto Exchange Stadium in Dunedin could affect attendance in those parks.

There is some opposition to the measure. Critics say the tax hike is too high, light rail does not reduce congestion, it will hurt the poor and middle class, and that it threatens small businesses.

What the initiative does not do is create a rail connecting St. Petersburg to Tampa. While the initiative outlines a "proposed" rail line along the Howard Frankland Bridge, an article earlier this year in the Tampa Bay Business Journal claims the bridge won't be rail ready anytime soon, despite new construction.

In order to include light rail, the bridge would have to be widened; a causeway leading up to it would need to be built; the electrical component and other infrastructure would have to be added.

Or – another structure adjacent to the bridge could be constructed exclusively for the rail line.

The cost for either option: about $1 billion.

The new span, due for completion by 2024, is currently budgeted at $425 million.

Meanwhile, while ideas for progress are being considered north of Tropicana Field, the southern counties of Tampa Bay are preparing for the worst. Earlier this week, the Sarasota Herald-Tribune reported that due to a lack of north-south roads in Sarasota and Manatee County, commuters are using I-75 for local trips. Combined with a growing area population, this increased local use is congesting the interstate and hindering travel.

There is no arguing the Tampa Bay area needs mass transit. I would like to see train, bike lanes, self-driving cars, and hover chair people movers like in Wall-E. But I am not convinced these projects will have a significant effect on baseball attendance.

And besides, if Greenlight Pinellas is greenlighted, by the time it is completed, the Rays might be playing elsewhere in Tampa Bay.