Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During Tampa Bay Rowdies Games 2010-2016

On this website, I've already looked at Rays attendance during Tampa Bay Lightning, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and USF Football games. Today, I will be looking at Rays attendance on dates that coincide with Tampa Bay Rowdies soccer games.

A lot has been made of the Rowdies recently. The team and the City of St. Petersburg are campaigning to elevate the franchise to Major League Soccer. The #MLS2StPete effort has been ongoing since last year and has a considerable amount of support and money behind it.

I have written on this website that I do not believe the area is big enough nor has enough expendable income for the Rays and a Major League soccer team. Not when sports fans on the other side of the bay already have options such as NFL, NHL, Arena League football, and Minor League baseball. That's a lot of sports for a region that is already economically overstretched.

But are the Rowdies affecting the Rays already? The following chart lists all Rowdies and Rays games played on the same date since the Rowdies resumed play at Steinbrenner Field in 2010.

A few observations:

Rowdies and Rays games often fall on Saturdays. 32 of 39 occurrences were on Saturday. While this makes it easier to compare based on day, it makes it more difficult due to the Rays varying promotional schedule.

12 of the 39 occurrences were on Rays concert series nights. Some concerts drew better than others. Hall and Oates in 2010 were much more popular than Sister Hazel in 2015. Although usually a big draw, I believe the concert series as a whole has lost some of its allure - but that's a post for another day.

3 occurrences were on days the Rays played the Yankees. In 2015 and 2016, this would not be a big deal. But prior to 2015, the Yankees were loaded with marketable stars, most notably Derek Jeter. With 20% of baseball fans in Tampa Bay affiliating with the Yankees, Yankees marketability was once a considerable factor in Rays attendance.

In August 2015, New York fans again swarmed Tropicana Field, but this time it was the New York Mets fans. Although there are far fewer Mets fans than Yankees fans in Tampa Bay, Mets fans made the Mets first visit to Tropicana Field in several years into an event - which means they waited for the day and went en masse, unlike Rays fans, whose support is spread over 81 games.

While there aren't many obvious trends from the above chart, there are two notable trends if pull the data apart a bit. Let's only look at Saturday games (32 of 39 games).

Here is a graph of the above chart.

We see here that while Rays attendance has steadily decreased since 2013 on selected Saturdays, Rowdies attendance has climbed from 3,000 per match to almost 6,000 per match. Since Rays attendance has decreased every day since 2013, it is difficult to attribute the cause on these Saturday to Rowdies soccer, since on 15 of the 32 days the Rays drew more than their Saturday season average.

With little conclusive evidence here, we can't state that Rowdies has had much of an effect on Rays baseball attendance through 2016. There are 8 coinciding dates in 2017, so we will have more data after the close of each team's season.

What I am worried about, however, is the expansion of the Rowdies capacity and interest in St Pete. If the Rowdies move up to Major League Soccer, will there be increased interest and attendance? If Al Lang Stadium is expanded to 18,000 as the Rowdies ownership would like, will fan decisions then affect Rays attendance?

Right now, there are enough hardcore and casual fans to maintain the same levels of attendance at Al Lang and Tropicana Field. But does the market have enough financial capacity to support MLS expansion to St Pete? That is the multi-million dollar question.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During Tampa Bay Lightning Games 2007-2017

With the end of the 2016-2017 Tampa Bay Lightning season, it's time to take another look at days both the Lightning and the Tampa Bay Rays played home games. This season, the Lightning did not make the NHL playoffs, although they made a challenge with a late season push. Given the Lightning exclusion from the playoffs, 2017 saw the least amount of coinciding games since 2013.

The following chart depicts all 29 dates since 2007 that the Rays have played on the same day as the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Highlighted boxes = Lightning playoff games.
D/N = Day or Night game.
“Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day” is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
“% Difference” is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

In 2017, the Rays and Lightning played on the same day twice - both Sundays. The first coinciding date was the Rays Opening Day on April 2nd. Since the Rays have sold out 12 consecutive Opening Days, there is no reason to think Lightning attendance had any effect on Rays ticket demand. The second coinciding date was April 9th, when the Lightning had their final home game in the evening and the Rays played their 7th game of the season during the day.

Although we don't have Rays daily averages yet, we can compared the Rays April 9th attendance to their 2016 Sunday average. In 2016, the Rays averaged 18,996 to Sunday games. Of their 13 Sunday games in 2016, an attendance of 15,341 would have ranked near the bottom.

Another interesting stat from this chart is that the Lightning have sold out the last 3 non-playoff games played on the same day as Rays games. Of course, we would expect them to sell-out playoff games, but selling out non-playoff games is an indication of high ticket demand and an excited and robust fanbase.

In 2017, Rays Opening Day also coincided with a Lightning game for the first time since 2010. This also happened in 2007. 2017 was first time both teams sold out.

To the Rays advantage this year, local fans won't be spending their money or time on the Lightning for the remainder of the 2017 baseball season. The last time the Lightning failed to make the playoffs was the 2012-2013 season. In 2013, the Rays drew 1.5 million fans. Since the Lightning began their most recent playoff streak, Rays average attendance has been 1.2 million.

Can we attribute the Rays 300,000 fans per year decrease on the Lightning making the playoffs? Probably not. But it may be a factor. A factor that the Rays will not face this season.

As I wrote last year,

Some people will always choose the Rays over the Lightning, just as some people will always choose the Lightning over the Rays. Some will stay home and watch both. Some people don't care about either. But we have to consider the Tampa Bay population as the majority of the potential attendance for both events. Hearts, minds, and dollars are trying to be won by both teams.

For the Rays the opportunity now exists to get casual fans to spend their money and time in both ticket sales and TV ratings on Major League Baseball where they might have spent either or both on the NHL playoffs.

Here are a few ideas the Rays could do to capitalize on Lightning fandom this spring:

• get Lightning players to throw out the first pitch.
• give Lightning season ticket holders a discount on Rays tickets until June
• recognize Lightning parking passes at Tropicana Field until the NHL playoffs end.
• organize events in downtown Tampa with Raymond and the Lightning mascot to push tickets to people working in Tampa
• rent a bus to go from Amalie Arena to Tropicana Field before a weekend game

Lightning fans have money in their pockets they would be spending on the NHL playoffs had the Lightning made it. This money is now the Rays to win.

Why #MLS2StPete will spell doom for baseball in St Pete

During the baseball offseason, there has been a lot of headlines and action regarding the Tampa Bay Rowdies quest to move up in leagues to Major League Soccer. On Dec 7th, the Rowdies kicked off the #MLS2StPete campaign to generate support for their endeavor.

While St. Pete and even Tampa are awash with marketing materials promoting the campaign, there have been a few articles of pushback. On Jan 27th, Robert Trigaux of the Tampa Bay Times wrote a piece entitled "It's Tampa Bay Rowdies vs. Tampa Bay Rays in scramble for fans, money in St. Pete sports market". It was an absolutely solid piece detailing the growing battle between the two St Pete franchises.

The result is a new dynamic emerging between the Rowdies and Rays, two sports teams located within a mile of one another in a rapidly evolving city. Each sports franchise is trying at the same time to win the hearts, dollars and attendance from St. Pete's (and Tampa Bay's) business community and residents.

Trigaux hits a lot of the typical notes: the Rays are struggling to draw fans, MLS is hot, the Rays need money for a new stadium, the Rowdies are willing to pay to expand Al Lang Stadium.

But his article had two small drawbacks: 1) it failed to talk about disposable income and economic capacity and 2) it ended with questions.

Will some businesses be forced to choose between the Rays and Rowdies? Can area residents support baseball and soccer in a hometown city with population of 260,000?

Let me answer:

Question 1) Yes.

Very simply, some businesses will only have enough funds to support one team. Some businesses are very profitable and can support professional sports teams, Little League teams, non-profits, and everything in between. Some small businesses can barely support paying their bills. So yes, if some businesses wanted to provide corporate support, they might have to choose between the Rays and the Rowdies.

Question 2) No.

I have repeatedly written about Tampa Bay's lack of disposable income. I've written about the area's economic capacity. I've written about average income, job growth, and demographics. Nothing indicates that Tampa Bay, and St Petersburg specifically, can support the growth of a sports team.

This area already supports

• Rays
• Lightning
• Bucs
• Storm
• 4 Minor League Baseball teams
• Approximately 50% of Spring Training attendance

All with a population of 3 million people making an average of less than 50,000 a year.

Increased attendance and focus on the Rowdies would require time and money to be diverted from other entertainment or leisure venues. Whether the movies, a museum, the Rays, or a restaurant, people will be switching focus to the Rowdies. Stadiums don't come with people - they aren't old GI Joe vehicles that came with the pilot. People live in the area and have to be won over.

Of course, in their pitch, no one with the Rowdies has said there is the economic capacity to support expansion. They've cited the TV market (which the Rays commonly do as well) and the demographics. But those demographics are not exclusive to soccer. They are shared by almost every major sport.

Despite so much evidence to the contrary, Mayor Kriseman and the St Pete Area Chamber of Commerce are supporting the Rowdies initiative. Mayor Kriseman believes St Pete is big enough for the Rays and the Rowdies.

It's not.

Currently, single game tickets to a Rowdies match costs $23.50. Times 18,000 seats = 423,000. Times 17 game schedule = over $7 million total in disposable income to sell-out each Rowdies match. And that's just ticket sales. Currently, the Rowdies seat 6,000 at $23 = 2.2 million. So nearly $5 million more required from the Rowdies market.

Meanwhile, for the Rays sell out every game at $15 at ticket, they would require $36.4 million.

That's $50 million minimum to max out attendance in an area with a population of 259,906 and a median income under $50,000. Unless they are counting on people from outside the Tampa Bay area to support the local teams.

How's that "Team Tampa Bay" working out right now?

When Competition in the Market is Questioned

I've talked a lot about competition on this website. I absolutely believe every local dollar spent on Spring Training and Minor League Baseball in the Tampa Bay area could be money spent on the Rays. That alternative competition drains the Rays revenue, reduces their front office flexibility, and makes them less competitive in the standings.

While perusing the Interwebs, I found a very interesting 2013 article on the Tampa Bay areas' two aquariums: the Clearwater Aquarium and the Florida Aquarium in Tampa. Entitled "Two Aquariums in Tampa Bay Would Test Support", the Tampa Bay Times talked to economists, analysts, and aquarium experts and got their thoughts on whether expansions in the Clearwater Aquarium would eventually cannibalize attendance for the Florida Aquarium, especially in regards to tourists.

"As a tourist, I'm coming down there to do a variety of different things — the beach, the Dalí Museum, Busch Gardens, an aquarium. But I'm not going to spend the money to do two aquariums," said Robison, a LaSalle University economist who specializes in entertainment venues.

"You end up splitting the business. They're going to share the market, and that makes it difficult to survive."

While the Florida Aquarium has maintained a steady growth in attendance, reaching 750,000 in 2014, attendance at the Clearwater Aquarium has soared thanks to the celebrity of Winter, star of the movie Dolphin Tale. Attendance in the Clearwater Aquarium increased from 163,000 in 2010 to 800,000 in 2014.

In total, nearly 1.5 million people - tourists and locals - visited Tampa Bay area aquariums in 2014. On a related note, in 2014, 2.35 million people bought baseball tickets for Tampa Bay area Spring Training, MLB, and Minor League Baseball.

Of those, 432,000 were Spring Training (estimated 50% tourists) and the other 1.9 million were local (Rays and Minor League Baseball).

Where are the articles that ask whether baseball options cannibalize each other?

Where are the articles that ask how much expanding McKechnie Field in 2010 or Steinbrenner Field in the future will cannibalize Rays attendance or other Spring Training events?

Keep in mind, the aquariums also compete with baseball in the spring and summer. People can just as easily spend their money on an aquarium visit as they can a baseball game. While Rays tickets range from roughly $15-$50 dollars a piece, and trip to the Clearwater and Florida Aquarium costs $22 and $25, respectively.

Roughly in the same range.

One final thought: the Rays drew 1.8 million in 2010, the year the Clearwater Aquarium drew 165,000. In 2011, Clearwater Aquarium attendance jumped to 312,000. Also, Bradenton Marauders attendance jumped from 51,000 in 2010 to 102,491 in 2011. Meanwhile, Rays attendance dropped to 1.53 million.

Marauders attendance went up 50,000 in a population south of Tropicana Field and the Clearwater Aquarium attendance increased 150,000 in an area north of Tropicana Field. In the same year, Rays attendance decreased 300,000.

Of course, the Clearwater Aquarium receives a lot of tourists. There is no assumption of what percentage of guests are tourists.

We can't automatically assume aquariums and baseball can't co-exist. According to the Tampa Bay Times article, San Francisco also has two aquariums and a baseball team, and the Giants entered 2016 with a sell-out streak of over 400 games.

But the Giants have over 2 million people living within 30 minutes of AT&T Park whereas the Rays have approximately 800,000 within 30 minutes of Tropicana Field.

The bottom line is that the next time local media questions competition in the area, wonder why increased baseball competition gets a free pass. There is a tipping point to how much entertainment an area can support, even with tourist dollars.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During Tampa Bay Lightning Games 2007-2015

Last season there was a lot of discussion as to how much, if any, the Tampa Bay Lightning affect the attendance of the Tampa Bay Rays. While the Rays schedule overlaps with the Bucs, Rowdies, Storm, and Lightning, the possibly exciting conclusion of the Lightning schedule, especially when a Stanley Cup run is involved, may give a strong market advantage to the local hockey team.

Not only have I written about this phenomenon twice (once in 2014 and again in 2015), the Tampa Bay Times also had a good article on this sports market competition last year. They quoted several people, including a few USF sports marketing professors.

"It's pretty clear that their success has hampered the attendance of the Rays," said Michael Mondello, professor of sports marketing in the University of South Florida Muma College of Business. "I don't think there's any doubt about that."

and

"Whenever you have a hot team, everybody's going to follow the hot team," said William Sutton, who also teaches in the Muma College of Business and directs the USF Sport and Entertainment Management program. "That would have an adverse effect on anybody."

Lightning fans and locals want to keep up with the watercooler conversation, he said. The decision is not fully financial.

"It's more a question of how they're going to spend their time than their money," Sutton said. And it's not until after Memorial Day that baseball attendance really picks up, he said.

The following chart depicts all 23 dates since 2007 that the Rays have played on the same day as the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Highlighted boxes = Lightning playoff games.
D/N = Day or Night game.
“Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day” is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
“% Difference” is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

There are only six times since 2007 that the Rays attendance on hockey night exceeded their annual daily average. Of those six, two were on Rays Opening Day, three were against the Yankees, and one was during a Wil Myers bobblehead night in 2014.

In 2015, the Rays and Lightning played seven games on the same date. This was more dates than any season since before 2007. Similar to 2011, every date that had both a Lightning and Rays was a Lightning playoff game. Unlike previous years, in 2015, even Rays games against the Yankees struggled when coinciding with Lightning games. By the time the Lightning were eliminated, every Rays game that coincided with a Lightning game saw an attendance lower than average.

Although we can compare individual dates, the important thing to remember is that fans' wallets don't regenerate daily. Most people get paid bi-weekly. So if they are spending their paycheck on Lightning tickets, they will have to wait at least a few days to afford Rays tickets.

We also have to consider time expense. Do fans have time to go to two or more events per week, especially on the weekday? If they have the time to attend one game a week, will they choose the Lightning or the Rays?

Here is the Rays average attendance during each round of the NHL playoffs in 2015.

• Rays avg attendance prior to NHL Playoffs (3 games, Apr 6-8) : 19,506
• Rays avg attendance during NHL Playoffs Round 1 (9 games, Apr 17-26): 16,891
• Rays avg attendance during NHL Playoffs Round 2 (6 games May 7-12): 13,298
• Rays avg attendance during NHL Playoffs Round 3 (7 games May 21-27): 12,032
• Rays avg attendance during NHL Playoffs Round 4 (7 games June 9-15): 13,479

In total, the Rays played 34 home games before the Lightning season ended. During those 34 games, Rays average attendance was 14,409. In their 47 remaining home games, Rays average attendance was 16,122.

Of course, we also have to account for the routine increase in baseball attendance in the summer. Typically, while attendance increases in June and July, it decreases in August and September if the Rays are not in playoff contention, which evens out the effect. If the Rays are in playoff contention, attendance maintains its summer increase.

With the Lightning again in the playoffs, how much of an impact should we expect on Rays attendance this season?

The best answer is "it depends". It depends how long the Lightning playoff run continues. So far in 2016, the Rays have played two home games on the same date as the Lightning.

Like in 2015 and 2011, every date in which the Lightning and Rays play will be a Lightning playoff date. This year, however, the Rays have daily promotions.

Based on the past, we know a Lightning playoff run will have an impact on Rays attendance. This effect has varied between -3% and -37% on the average attendance for the day of the week.

Some people will always choose the Rays over the Lightning, just as some people will always choose the Lightning over the Rays. Some will stay home and watch both. Some people don't care about either. But we have to consider the Tampa Bay population as the majority of the potential attendance for both events. Hearts, minds, and dollars are trying to be won by both teams.

To paraphrase Yoda, "Begun, the attendance war has."

When #TeamTampaBay is not a team at all

Over the last few years, there has been a lot of talk about #TeamTampaBay, a marketing concept that unifies fans across all Tampa Bay sports. The Rays front office supports the Lightning, the Bucs, Storm, Rowdies, etc, and those teams support the others and every one gets along. Ideally, fans would see this cooperation and root for the local teams as a bloc as well.

Sounds good in theory.

We all know, however, that dollars are thin in small-market Tampa Bay. The Rays in particular suffer in attendance when the Lightning go deep into the playoffs. Despite being second fiddle this year, the Rays front office handled the situation gracefully. Publicly, they supported the Lightning and said all victories were victories for the area.

Everything is hunky-dory, right?

Except when it is not. Except when a Tampa Bay Lightning employee criticizes attendance for both the Rays and the Tampa Yankees.

According to his twitter bio and his LinkedIn, Matt Turner is the Digital Content Producer for the Tampa Bay Lightning. He writes for the Lightning website, creates GIFs, and probably does other forms of digital content producing. He joined the Lightning just before the playoffs and before last night never tweeted about the Rays.

Yes, the Rays struggle at the gate. They are often outdrawn by the Lightning overall and especially on weekdays. And the Tampa Yankees are not the best drawing Minor League team in the area either. Steinbrenner Field is built for Spring Training, so the Tampa Yankees usually only fill approximately 10-20% of the stadium.

These are facts. But baseball attendance is not Turner's business nor should he comment about it, even if it is a poorly worded attempt at humor. Turner is an employee of another regional team. He should be rooting for other teams to be successful, both on the field and at the gate. Unless of course these teams are now baring their fangs, throwing out the #TeamTampaBay concept, admitting they cannibalize each other, and declaring open season on local dollars.

To be honest, I hate writing these kind of articles. I've gone after local media and out-of-town sports employees for unprofessional comments on Rays attendance. But I never thought I would ever have to call out an employee of another Tampa Bay sports team. If anything, these employees are the face of the local teams. Almost more so than the players. They should be the ultimate cheerleaders for the teams and the community.

I'm also usually a huge fan of the Lightning digital and social marketing team. They are great and have been widely regarded as one of the best in the business. But I guess certain employees need to realize commenting on the business results and marketing efforts of other teams in the area is not being a good member of #TeamTampaBay.

Or maybe Matt Turner needs to follow the steps of his boss before she leaves for her next opportunity.

(Update: Of course, Turner claimed it was a "joke". He also deleted his tweet. Word of advice from someone who has done stand-up comedy: humor attacks upward. It takes the powerful down a peg. It does not attack the unfortunate, the struggling, or the downtrodden.)

Tampa Bay Minor League Baseball Outdraws Rays

There is no arguing Tampa Bay is a highly competitive sports market, especially in baseball. There are numerous baseball options Tampa Bay baseball fans can spend money on from February to October. There are four spring training camps, four Minor League stadiums, and one Major League stadium.

During Spring Training, each location draws near capacity. Then during baseball season, the brand recognition of Major League Baseball usually draws more fans than all the other options combined.

Most of the time.

On Wednesday, the combined attendance of Tampa Bay area Minor League Baseball outdrew the Rays for the first time in over eight years.

Due to several concurrent promotions, the Tampa Yankees, Clearwater Threshers, and Bradenton Marauders combined to draw 13,719 fans.

• The Tampa Yankees drew 8,865 to their Kids' Day promotion.
• The Clearwater Threshers drew 2,791 to their City of Clearwater 100th Anniversary Fireworks Celebration.
• The Bradenton Marauders drew 2,103 to Fan Appreciation Day.

Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Rays drew 10,365 to their game.

In total, 3,354 more fans chose Minor League Baseball than Major League Baseball on Wednesday in the Tampa Bay area.

The last time local Minor League Baseball outdrew the Rays was 5/18/2007 when Roger Clemens made a highly publicized rehabilitation start for the Tampa Yankees. That day, the Tampa Yankees drew 10,257 and the Clearwater Threshers drew 7,649. The then-Devil Rays drew only 13,003, or 4,903 less than area Minor League Baseball.

Every so often, a Minor League team in a distant market has a big promotion and outdraws the Rays. This leads some people to think the Rays should move to that market. What those fans fail to realize is that promotion attendance is the exception, not the norm.

In this case, however, these promotions occurred in the same market, targeted to the same fans. If those promotions or teams did not exist in the Tampa Bay market, those fans might have gone to Tropicana Field. Those fans made a choice based on convenience, event, cost, or some other factor.

For those who don't realize the unique competition in the Tampa Bay market, here is a list of the 11 Minor League teams that play within 30 miles of a Major League stadium. Four play in the Tampa Bay area, near the team with the lowest average attendance in Major League Baseball.

Notes:

• In the case of the NY City teams, the Mets are the closer MLB team.
• All data was acquired via Google Maps.
• Distance in time is without traffic.
• Click to download the full list of Minor League team distances from MLB stadiums.

Rays reducing ticket prices during Lightning playoffs

Last week, I asked whether a tweet about attendance by Rays pitcher Chris Archer was a precursor to an adjustment in ticket prices. Currently, not only are the Rays last in average attendance per game, they are getting absolutely crushed in the market by the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Until yesterday, there was no added incentive to support the Rays and pass on the Lightning experience. Lightning games are now an "event", leaving the Rays as an afterthought.

Last night, Tampa Bay Times Rays writer Marc Topkin reported the Rays are reducing ticket prices in the TBT Party Deck (Upper Left Field 300 level) for the remainder of the homestand.

Though they didn't announce or promote it, the Rays are offering a lower-priced ticket during this homestand, selling bleacher seats in the TBT Party Deck for $7 Friday and Monday-Wednesday against Seattle, and for $13 today and Sunday.

$7 for a Major League Baseball ticket. That's quite the deal. Although the ticket is for the upper left field deck, fans can always venture down to The Porch bar and food area in center field or watch the game from the 360 concourse in the lower deck. There is no need to stay in the upper deck.

This homestand continues until Wednesday, May 27th. Following the homestand, the Rays are on the road until June 9th. Meanwhile, the Tampa Bay Lightning played at Game 5 of their playoff series at home May 22, then may play a possible Game 7 versus the New York Rangers in Tampa on Tuesday, May 26th.

If the Lightning make it to the Stanley Cup finals, they should be two or three games into their series by the time the Rays return. If that is the case, the Rays could extend the ticket deal through the weekday series versus the Angels on June 9, 10, 11.

In an earlier column, Topkin wrote that the Rays could offer deals, "if they wanted to". That comment, plus Archer's tweet, led me to believe a ticket reduction was coming.

The Rays needed to find a way to stop the bleeding caused by the Tampa Bay Lightning.

• Rays avg attendance prior to NHL Playoffs: 19,506
• Rays avg attendance during NHL Playoffs Round 1: 16,891
• Rays avg attendance during NHL Playoffs Round 2: 13,298
• Rays avg attendance during NHL Playoffs Round 3: 11,450

Will the ticket deals work? Although they are not announced and not promoted, as word of mouth spreads, reduced tickets could help. On the other hand, they might not. But they are an interesting way to test fan incentive.

Perhaps the ticket deals are not announced or promoted as the Rays don't want to be seen as competing against the Lightning. But with the deal extending only as far as the Lightning are in the playoffs, it is hard to see the decision any other way.

Predicting Rays attendance during Tampa Bay Lightning Playoff Games

(This post is an update to last year's post on the same subject.)

Tonight, the Tampa Bay Lightning host the Detroit Red Wings in Game 1 of the first round of the NHL Playoffs. This is the second year in a row the Lightning have made the playoffs, and the fourth time since 2007.

The Lightning's extended schedule means they will play at least 1 game at the same time as the Rays for the first time in 2015. Overlapping schedules is not an unusual occurrence; since 2007, Rays and Lightning have played on the same day 16 times (4 times in 2007, 3 times in 2010, 4 times in 2011, 1 time in 2013, and 4 times in 2014). Of these, 7 occurred while the Lightning were in the playoffs and 2 others occurred on the Rays home opener.

Overlapping schedules leads to an interesting dilemma for Tampa Bay area sports fans. The importance of the Lightning games and their popularity in the Tampa Bay area usually means support and interest is high. On the other hand, the Rays season is only beginning and fans have at least 70 more opportunities to see the team play at Tropicana Field.

Assuming fans are followers of both teams, they have three options:

• Go to Amalie Arena to see the LIghtning
• Go to Tropicana Field to see the Rays
• Stay home or go to a sports bar and watch both games

2 of these 3 options have fans declining a trip to Tropicana Field.

The following chart depicts the days the Tampa Bay Rays have played on the same day as the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Highlighted boxes = Lightning playoff games.
D/N = Day or Night game.
“Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day” is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
“% Difference” is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

Before 2014, the only times Rays games matched or drew over their daily average attendance, was on Opening Day (4/6/2007 and 4/6/2010) or against the New York Yankees (4/10/2010 and 4/24/2013). On April 5, 2014, the Rays did something they had never done before - drew above their daily average while the Lightning played on a day that was not Opening Day and against an opponent that was not the Yankees.

Why did the Rays draw over 30,000 fans to an early April game against the Rangers? The only possibility I can find is that April 5th, 2014 was Wil Myers Bobblehead Night. Bobbleheads are a popular promotion and do increase attendance. From 2009 to 2013, for example, bobbleheads increased attendance by an average of nearly 22%. So perhaps 25% is not too incredible, although it is impressive.

Fortunately for the Rays, past trends are in their favor to not see an attendance drop while the Lightning play in the first round of the NHL playoffs. The below chart shows Lightning first round game dates concurrent with Rays games.

First and foremost for the Rays, these games are on Saturdays, which usually draw better attendance than weekday games. Second, they play the Yankees on 4/18, and Yankees games bring an influx of Florida-based Yankees fans who greatly aid attendance. Third, the Rays are hosting promotions on both days - an Alex Cobb gumby figure on 4/18 and a Chris Archer bobblehead on 4/25. Given these circumstances, I would estimate the Rays exceed their Saturday average on 4/18 and are within +/- 5% of the average on 4/25.

Of course, the Lightning could defeat the Red Wings and move on to Round 2 of the NHL Playoffs. If that occurs, there could be more days when the Rays and the Lightning play simultaneously. And there could be more days where the battle for the hearts, minds, and dollars of Tampa Bay sports fans is directly identifiable.

No One Wins When Local Bloggers Insult Tampa Bay Baseball

One thing I have done on this blog is call out people who take cheap shots at Tampa Bay baseball fans. Yes, the Rays struggle with attendance. This is a fact. But it is how, when, and why people mention Rays attendance that I often have a problem with.

In context, there is nothing wrong with saying the Rays attendance stinks. I'll agree and maybe even offer some research on where the Rays struggle the most (hint: Monday through Thursday). But what I will not abide is when people throw the Rays fanbase under the bus for no other reason than to run them over.

Since I started this blog, I have taken umbrage with Dick Vitale, an employee of the Daytona Cubs, a Durham Bulls beat writer, and political writer Dan Drezner. Each time I countered weak claims with facts, in an attempt to not only defend the fanbase, but also to inform and educate. Like most arguments, proper use and interpretation of data makes for a better discussion.

I expect to have to defend, inform, and educate media people who are not from Tampa Bay. They don't have the facts and they are not from the area. What I do not expect, however, is to set straight other local sports bloggers. These are peers who should know better. They should be working with sites like mine to increase the knowledge level of the Tampa Bay sports community. But alas, I shouldn't assume.

On Saturday, dozens of college football stars gathered at Tropicana Field for the annual East-West Shrine Game. This game was a showcase of players seeking to improve their draft status and play among the best competition in college football.

Attendance for the 2015 East-West Shrine Game went up 14.33% compared to the 2014 game, from 19,500 to 22,296. That's great and something people should write about and celebrate.

But instead of accentuating the positive, two local sports bloggers used the opportunity to belittle Rays attendance. According to Bucs bloggers Gil Arcia of TheBayCave.com and Luke Easterling of DraftReport.com and BleacherReport.com,

More than the #Rays RT @Shrine_Game: Official attendance from the #ShrineGame - 22,296 at @TheTrop.

— Gil Arcia (@GilArciaTBC) January 18, 2015

As @GilArciaTBC points out, today's Shrine Game attendance is well above Rays' average at the Trop. *sigh*

— Luke Easterling (@LukeEasterling) January 18, 2015

There is absolutely no reason to bring Rays attendance into a conversation about the East-West Shrine Game. None. The only thing they have in common is the venue in which they are played.

Here are a few ways Rays baseball and the East-West Shrine Game differ:

• Different sports
• Different fan bases
• The East-West Shrine Game is a once-a-year event, Rays play 81 games
• The East-West Shrine Game is an all-star game, Rays games are regular season contests
• The East-West Shrine Game is a national level event, Rays games are marketed to the local fanbase

Comparing the two makes as much sense as comparing attendance to a music festival at Raymond James Stadium to the Bucs average attendance. They take place in the same venue. As a matter of fact, the Super Bowl has been played at Raymond James Stadium, why not compare that to a regular season Bucs game?

Because it makes as much sense as Wookies on Endor.

That local sports bloggers cater to the lowest common denominator and take pot shots at local baseball attendance feeds into the self-fulfilling prophesy that the Rays have a weak fanbase and that is the reason the team struggles with attendance. Noah Pransky of Shadow of the Stadium often writes about self-fulfilling prophesy in regards to the consistent bashing of Tropicana Field subconsciously driving people from the ballpark.

As I pointed out to Mr. Arcia and Mr. Easterling, even if we want to compare a college football all-star game to an average regular season baseball game, and use the only thing the events have in common, day of the week, the Rays don't look bad at all.

In their 13 Saturday games in 2014, Rays attendance was 24,320.

1,934 more fans than the East-West Shrine Game.

If you are going to critique your own neighbors, you should make sure you have your facts straight. Otherwise, you make our entire sports community look bad.

Then again, maybe that was the intent.

Notes from the Tampa Bay Business Journal "Business of Sports" Huddle

On Thursday, January 15, I attended the Tampa Bay Business Journal's Business of Sports Huddle at Amalie Arena. The event was a discussion about sports and the Tampa Bay community. Hosted by the Tampa Bay Business Journal, guests included several prominent executives from Tampa Bay sports teams.

• Jeff Vinik, Owner of the Tampa Bay Lightning
• Farrukh Quraishi, Rowdies President and GM
• Brian Ford, Bucs Chief Operating Officer
• Stacey Allaster, Chairman and CEO of the Women's Tennis Association
• Tracy West, Tournament Director, The Valspar Championship (golf)
• Sean Brown, VP of Finance, Minor League Baseball
• Chris Stadler, Chief Marketing Officer, Ironman
• Rob Higgins, Executive Director, Tampa Sports Commission

No one mentioned, but the Rays were conspicuously absent. As far as I could tell, they were the only regional professional sports organization not present. I would be very curious as to why they chose not to attend. Were they invited?

If they were invited, someone should have been there. The discussions were not only about Tampa, but about the Tampa Bay region. The Rowdies, for example, play in downtown St. Petersburg. If the Rays want regional support, they should be more regionally proactive.

The Rays absence was a major missed opportunity on their part. If Jeff Vinik showed up and chief execs of the Rowdies and Bucs were there, the Rays had to be there. Or someone should have mentioned why they weren't there. Several questions and issues involved the Rays, leaving people who had no knowledge to make their best guesses.

Now, about those who were there:

The seminar started with opening words by Abraham Madkour, Executive Editor of the SportsBusiness Journal. Madkour listed several issues he is watching in the next few years:

• Bud Selig stepping down and Rob Manfred taking over as MLB Commissioner
  
  • Pace of game
  • How Manfred handles the Rays situation
• How Roger Goodell and the NFL can bounce back from publicly embarrassing 2014
• Impact of the College Football Playoffs
• TV rights dollars and whether streaming packages will cut cable revenue
• Evolution of technology in the fan experience
• Growth of gaming and gambling
• How the wall between fans and players and fans and coaches is changing
• Rays situation (yes, again)
• Bill Simmons's relationship with ESPN
• Teams as regional developers beyond the walls of the stadiums (Vinikville, etc)
• Change from large venues to intimate sports venues and the fear that sports will be "just for television"

Next to the stage was Farrukh Quraishi, President and GM of the Tampa Bay Rowdies. Mr. Quraishi discussed the change of Al Lang Stadium from baseball to a permanent soccer facility, how the Rowdies are building their audience, differences between their league and Major League Soccer, and the impact of owner Bill Edwards.

After Mr. Quraishi was Mr. Vinik. As the most high-profile speaker, Mr. Vinik was definitely the star of the event. It was after all, in his building. Not only did I gain insight into his local project, but I felt like I learned a little bit about his mindset as a leader and businessman.

Of course, there are plenty of local news sites that discuss the details of what he is doing, but here are my takeaways on Mr. Vinik:

• He talked to development experts and visited other cities to order to gain knowledge.
• He is sold on the potential and uniqueness of Tampa.
• Sometimes disappointments happen, but continue the vision.
• Build a good executive team, both in hockey and real estate.
• Explain projects well in order to gain credibility. If people don't understand your idea, that's because you didn't do a good enough job of explaining it.
• His early years were head-down in research, especially independent research. His knowledge of finance and money management paid off in his career.
• Celebrate learning new things. Now in his 50s, Vinik is moving into real estate and development.
• It takes time to be world class. Be patient.
• Be world class in customer service. How you treat people and guests is very important. Have world class customer service.
• Strive for sustained excellence. There are no short cuts. It takes time to build a brand. There is also no substitute for hard work. Build one-to-one with everyone you meet.
• Touch people. Be public. Build a brand.
• He is happy to break even with the Lightning. Real estate needs sustainable growth.
• He is 100% behind efforts to keep the Rays in the Tampa Bay area, whether Hillsborough or Pinellas Counties. He believes in order for this region to be major league, Tampa Bay needs Major League Baseball.
• Tampa needs mass transit. This effort will start with emphasis on the street car trolley line expansion. From there, mass transit can grow.

Following Mr. Vinik was a panel moderated by Rob Higgins of the Tampa Sports Commission. The panel included

• Stacey Allaster, Chairman and CEO of the Women's Tennis Association
• Tracy West, Tournament Director, The Valspar Championship (golf)
• Sean Brown, VP of Finance, Minor League Baseball
• Chris Stadler, Chief Marketing Officer, Ironman

Each of the panel members talked about their role and the importance of Tampa Bay in their location. Each of these entities operates events throughout the nation, if not throughout the world. The allure of Tampa Bay and the access to the airport has allowed them to best control their operations.

A few points:

• Ms. Allaster discussed turning matches into global events as well as the growth of data - both for the sport and for fans.
• Mr. Brown talked about the impact of social media for Minor League Baseball.
  
  • (Note: There was no mention of the Florida State League or Spring Training. Although he was asked about Gary Sheffield's effort to get Spring Training in Wesley Chapel, Mr. Brown said he had no knowledge on the issue.)
• Ms. West talked about the importance of sponsorships in golf.
• Mr. Stadler discussed partnerships and the Ironman brand.

After the panel was a discussion with Brian Ford, COO of the Tampa Bay Bucs. Mr. Ford talked about the following:

• The excitement of having the first pick in the NFL Draft.
• How the Bucs attempt to monetize excitement - ticket sales, etc
• Offering exclusive value events to add value to the fan experience - upgrades, etc
• Adding local flair in experience and concessions
• Events need to be a good time - beyond just game play
• The pulse of social media - passion is a good thing.
• Use of customer data - strategy for attracting new fans/ keeping loyal fans/ bringing back fans who fell off the wagon.
• The importance of new Chief Marketing Officer Brian Killingsworth and his local knowledge.

Overall, I though The Business of Sports Huddle was a great event. I learned a lot about the vision of the local sports teams. I even learned about organizations I didn't know were in Tampa Bay, but play an important role in the Tampa Bay sports landscape. Of course, it would have been nice for the Rays to show up.

Estimating Rays attendance if they move to Tampa

In light of the pending decision to possibly let the Rays look for locations for a new stadium in Hillsborough County, one of the biggest questions is "Will it matter?". Specifically, assuming TV and radio ratings stay the same, will a new ballpark have a significant effect on long-term attendance?

(We have look at long-term attendance because many studies have identified a "honeymoon effect", in which the allure of a new stadium spikes attendance, even if the team's on-the-field quality is poor. A new stadium has attraction value for its first few years.)

Bobby Lewis of WTSP.com tried to make the case that following a honeymoon effect, attendance to Rays home games might return to Tropicana Field levels. Lewis cited examples in Washington, Minnesota, and Miami as reasons for his case.

I disagree. Besides the fact that every market is unique and each faces its own challenges and situations, there is statistical reason to believe the Rays will do better in more central location.

In order to understand how the Rays might do in a new location, we have to look at how other sports teams do in that location. For example, if the Rays move to a location near Channelside or between Channelside and Ybor, they would be drawing from the same population base as the Tampa Bay Lightning. The population radii would be similar and travel to each stadium would be similar.

Currently, population radius and travel to the stadium are the biggest points people use in argument against Tropicana Field. According to the argument, these factors, combined with time length of the event, cause people to stay home instead of attend a Rays game. After working 9-to-5, they opt not to travel to the ballpark. Instead, they opt to go on the weekends.

(Average time of the event: MLB - slightly over 3 hours / NHL - 2 hours and 20 minutes)

Here is a breakdown of the Rays attendance during the week and on the weekends since 2007. For giggles, I also included the percentage of games versus Boston and New York played on the weekend.

A few things we see here:

First and foremost, since 2007, the Rays have drawn over 38% more people for weekend games than on weekday games. Only in 2008 was their weekend/weekday difference below 20%. In 2007 and 2014, the Rays drew over 50% more people for weekend games than weekday games.

Second, while the Rays average attendance on the weekends hasn't changed much since 2011, average weekday attendance has steadily dropped, from 17K in 2011 to 14K in 2014.

Here is a breakout of the Lightning attendance on weekdays and weekends since the 2007-2008 season.

Although their capacity is much smaller (only 19,204 compared to over 30,000 for Tropicana Field), the Lightning difference in weekend/weekday attendance is drastically smaller. Since the 2007-2008 season, the average weekday game draws 95% of the attendance of the average weekend game.

Even more shocking is the Lightning average weekday attendance has been above the Rays average weekday attendance every year since 2011. The Lightning have averaged over 18K on weekdays each year while the Rays haven't topped the 18K weekday average since 2010.

Since most polls claim MLB is more popular than the NHL in Tampa Bay, how else to explain this but location, location, location.

If the Rays were to move to Tampa in a location near Amalie Arena, we can estimate attendance during the week would be equal to the Lightning, if not more. Of course, demographic and income studies could clarify this, and I intend to get to those eventually.

But using the MLB average of a 20% increase in weekend attendance, and estimating MLB attendance based on the highest Tampa Bay NHL attendance, we can give the Rays a very safe, very preliminary estimated attendance.

(Note: We cannot assume due to a new Rays stadium location that weekday attendance would be 95% of weekend attendance as it is for the Lightning. In 2014, only 5 teams had a less than 5% weekend/weekday difference: the Giants, Red Sox, Cardinals, Angels, and the Dodgers. Of these teams, only the Cardinals had a 30-minute population radius under 2 million.

There is no feasible way baseball passion in the Tampa Bay area will mirror baseball passion in St. Louis. Tampa Bay sports demographics are far too fragmented to create a Cardinals-like fanbase. So the 5% difference is beyond reach.)

If the Rays can draw 19,000 per weekday to a new downtown Tampa location, and if they achieve only the MLB average of a 20% increase on weekends, then:

19,000 x 43 games = 817,000

19,000 x 20% = 22,800

22,800 x 38 = 866,400

Total attendance = 1,683,400

As mentioned, this is a very low estimate. But it would move the Rays to 28th in 2014 MLB attendance.

If we use the Rays 2007-2014 weekend/weekday average increase of 38%, Rays attendance looks a bit better.

19,000 x 43 = 817,000

19,000 x 38% = 26,220

26,220 x 38 = 996,360

Total attendance: 1,813,360

This total would move the Rays to 26th in 2014 MLB attendance. Again, this is also a very conservative number that does not calculate for demographics, regional income, and corporate support, and barely accounts for the difference in popularity between Major League Baseball and the NHL.

But there is clear and justifiable reason to believe attendance will increase if a new Rays stadium is in the vicinity of Amalie Arena.

The question now is: Is that increase worth the cost of moving?

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During University of South Florida Football Games 2007-2014

Welcome to our third post comparing Tampa Bay Rays attendance to the attendance of another Tampa Bay area sports team. This post looks at Rays home attendance at Tropicana Field while the University of South Florida Bulls football team is playing home games at Raymond James Stadium. These facilities are 21.2 miles apart according to Google Maps. Without traffic, travel between the two is approximately 27 minutes.

Since 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays and USF Bulls have played on the same day 12 times.

• 1 time in 2007
• 3 times in 2008
• 2 times in 2009
• 1 time in 2010
• 2 times in 2011
• 3 times in 2014

Of these, 2 occurred while the Rays were in the playoffs, both in 2008. Three of these games occurred on the Bulls home opener.

The following chart depicts the days the Tampa Bay Rays have played on the same day as the USF Bulls.

Highlighted blue boxes = Bulls Home Opener
Highlighted yellow boxes = Rays playoff games
D/N = Day or Night game.
"Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day" is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452.31 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
"% Difference" is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

(Click pic to enlarge.)

There are not a lot of patterns here as it is a small sample size with a lot of variables, but we can observe a few things.

The Rays have played on the same day as the Bulls 12 times. On seven of those occasions, they have had either a concert or a bobblehead promotion. Those promotions are among the Rays best promotional gimmicks. Of the remaining five, two were during the playoff run of 2008, two were against the Red Sox (one of the Rays best drawing opponents), and the last was the last Friday night game of 2014.

The 2008 playoff games played on the same day as the USF Bulls have lower attendance than the average playoff game, however, the tarped seats were not available during these games and not as many seats were available, lowering the maximum capacity at Tropicana Field. Our "Playoff Average" contains World Series games were the tarp was removed and those seats were sold.

We can also see how much attendance has dropped for both the Rays and the Bulls. On the Bulls home opener in 2008, the two teams drew over 82,000 fans. On the Bulls home opener in 2014, the two teams drew barely 49,000.

Also of note, tin 2009 and 2014, the Rays were far out of contention by mid-September. That may explain the far below average attendance numbers. Even though the Rays are eliminated, we can't positively ascertain how many fans are opting to do the USF Bulls game, as their attendance dropped as well.

It is important to remember, attendance at a Bucs or Bulls game is not an "either/or" proposition for all fans. While the fans in attendance made a choice to attend one or the other, many fans stayed home and watched both games on their TVs or went to a sports bar. These fans chose to attend neither. It can probably be assumed fans who attend neither but watch both are in the majority in the Tampa Bay area.

(Note: Although college football is hugely watched and attended statewide, it would be difficult to compose a chart determining Rays attendance during Florida State Seminoles and University of Florida Gators games. It is easier for us to assume people in the Tampa Bay area made a choice to attend a game at Tropicana Field or Raymond James Stadium then to guess how many people made a drive to Tallahassee or Gainesville.)

Rays and ESPN the Magazine's Ultimate Team Rankings

On Thursday, ESPN the Magazine released their annual Ultimate Team Rankings. This ultimate chart ranks every team in North America's big four sports (MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL) in eight different categories. Data that composed the rankings was calculated partly from fan polling and partly from marketing companies. The goal of these rankings is to see which team fans think is the best all-round organization.

According to the Ultimate Team Rankings, the Tampa Bay Rays are the 35th best organization among the four professional sports. That placed them 8th in Major League Baseball and second in the Tampa Bay area behind the Tampa Bay Lightning, who placed 6th overall, and well ahead of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who finished a distant 84th.

The following chart shows how the Tampa Bay area teams did in the ESPN Ultimate Team Ranking:

Arranging the rankings only for Tampa Bay teams, we see the Lightning ahead in many categories:

These charts are interesting. The rankings have the Lightning as a far better run franchise than the Rays and both the Rays and the Lightning better than the Bucs. Let's look at a few of the categories.

Ownership: According to the rankings, Jeff Vinik of the Tampa Bay Lightning is perceived as far more honest and loyal to core players and the community than the Glazer family and Stu Sternberg and his team. That's interesting, especially considering Vinik is the newest owner of the bunch. Perhaps the Channelside area investments are paying off community-wise. Meanwhile, the Rays ownership ranked 19th in Major League Baseball. Perhaps their handling of the Rays payroll has led fans to believe ownership is not loyal.

It could be worse, however. Not surprisingly, the Marlins ownership was 122nd overall, dead last in honesty and loyalty.

Coaching: Another interesting category. The Rays ranked 19th overall, 5th in MLB, and first in Tampa Bay in strength in on-field leadership. Apparently the fans like Joe Maddon and his staff and they are looked upon well. Far better than the ownership group.

Affordability: While the Lightning are 6th overall, the Rays weren't far behind at 9th. The Rays were also 1st in Major League Baseball in price of tickets, parking, and concessions. The Bucs were a distant 79th.

Fan Relations: While I am not surprised the Lightning did very well (6th overall), I am surprised by the Rays ranking of 40th overall and 7th in MLB in openness and consideration towards fans by players, coaches, and management. Perhaps this is a category the Rays can strive to improve. I would be curious to see how fans determined this. While I think Joe Maddon seems open and the Tropicana Field staff seem nice enough (save for the obtrusive security), maybe the politics of the stadium issue and the fact that Rays ownership has not firmly announced they are staying in the Tampa Bay area has hurt their cause. Or maybe fans are still sore from Evan Longoria and David Price commenting about attendance in 2010.

Stadium Experience: This category didn't surprise me at all. The Lightning again did very well - 5th overall - and the Rays did very poorly (92nd overall and 27th of 30 in MLB). The Bucs also did not finish well in this category with an 86 overall. But for the Rays, the problem is Tropicana Field. No matter how much lipstick is put on the pig, it's still a drab, aging dome with rings in the air and a faulty substation that causes indoor rain delays. I was surprised the Trop finished ahead of any other stadium besides Oakland (is Citi Field really that bad?).

Finally, Title Track - championships won or expected to be won with fan's lifetime. Since the Rays haven't won a championship, they are below teams that have, to include the Lightning and Buccaneers, both who have won since 2000. But the Rays aren't bad, ranking 57th overall and 17th in MLB.

I thought the Rays did fairly well in the ESPN Magazine Ultimate Team Rankings. Although they dropped from 17th overall in 2013 to 35th overall in 2014 and from 4th in MLB in 2013 to 8th in 2014, for a team that plays in a very crowded market with a splintered demographic and a dilapidated dome, that's respectable. Of course, when hockey and baseball overlap, the Rays will probably continue to see fan interest sway to the Lightning, but when the Rays have the season to themselves, fans seem to enjoy and have faith in the product.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During Tampa Bay Buccaneers Games 2007-2014

Welcome to our second post comparing Tampa Bay Rays attendance to the attendance of another Tampa Bay area sports team. This post looks at Rays home attendance at Tropicana Field while the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing home games at Raymond James Stadium. These facilities are 21.2 miles apart according to Google Maps. Without traffic, travel between the two is approximately 27 minutes.

Since 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays and Tampa Bay Buccaneers have played on the same day 8 times (1 time in 2007, 1 time in 2008, 1 time in 2010, 3 times in 2011, 1 time in 2012, and 1 time in 2014). Of these, 2 occurred while the Rays were in the playoffs and 3 occurred on the Bucs home opener.

The following chart depicts the days the Tampa Bay Rays have played on the same day as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Highlighted blue boxes = Buccaneers Home Opener
Highlighted yellow boxes = Rays playoff games
D/N = Day or Night game.
"Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day" is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452.31 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
"% Difference" is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

(Click pic to enlarge.)

(Note: Rays 2014 Avg Annual Attendance/Day is as of 9/7/2014. They have one more remaining Sunday game on 9/21 vs Chicago.)

There are not a lot of patterns here as it is a small sample size with a lot of variables, but we can observe a few things.

The Rays have played 15 playoff games overall since 2007. Only once have they played on a Sunday and only twice have they played on a Monday. The Sunday game was Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS and the Monday games were Game 3 of the 2011 ALDS and Game 3 of the 2013 ALDS. Game 7 of the 2008 ALCS and Game 3 of the 2011 ALDS coincided with Buccaneers games.

Of the 2 times the Rays played regular season games on the same day as the Bucs and matched or drew over their average attendance, both were against the Boston Red Sox (9/23/2007 and 9/11/2011). We have already shown the Red Sox impact on Rays attendance here.

Also of note, the 9/23/2007 attendance was the lesser of two Sunday games versus Boston during 2007, but the 9/11/2011 game outdrew a Rays vs Red Sox Sunday game played earlier in 2011. Adding to the complexity, the New England Patriots played during the 9/23/2007 game, but did not play on 9/11/2011.

Another interesting trend is that while the Bucs home opener attendance has gone up by 11,000 fans from 2011 to 2014, the Rays attendance during those days has gone down over 5,000 fans. However, while the Rays playoff attendance went down from 40,473 in 2008 to 33,251 in 2011, Bucs attendance on the same days went down as well by approximately 1,000 fans.

(Note: Tropicana Field's covered seats were opened for sale in 2008 but not in 2011. This explains the Rays drop in attendance.)

While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are the area's biggest draw, attendance at a Bucs or Rays game is not an "either/or" proposition for all fans. While the fans in attendance made a choice to attend one or the other, many fans stayed home and watched both games on their TVs or went to a sports bar. These fans chose to attend neither. It can probably be assumed fans who attend neither but watch both are in the majority in the Tampa Bay area.

We will publish an update to the final Sunday average on this chart following the end of the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 season.

Major Trades and Tampa Bay Sports Fan Sensitivity

Almost immediately following the Tampa Bay Rays' trade of David Price, many Tampa Bay sports fans took to social media to compare the trade to the Tampa Bay Lightning's recent trade of star and fan favorite Marty St. Louis. On Friday, Raw Charge writer John Fontana debunked that comparison by citing several major differences between the two situations.

According to Fontana:

• Martin St. Louis demanded a trade, David Price did not
• The Lightning were in the thick of the division race
• St. Louis demanded where he wanted to be traded
• Baseball's financial system mandated the Rays move Price even though Price didn't want to be moved and the Rays would have preferred to keep him

Fontana cites these points as evidence there is no reason to compare the trades. While he is correct the teams made their trades because of totally different reasons, we can compare the trades on other grounds. Namely, the change in team winning percentage and, more importantly for this blog, the change in pre- and post-trade attendance.

Can we look at the Lightning trade of an all-star fan favorite and make any conclusions as to the sensitivity of the Tampa Bay sport fan? Did fans still attend Lightning games at the same rate post-trade as they did before the trade? Might that give us any clue as to the response of Rays fans to the David Price trade?

If fans were smart enough to follow the St. Louis situation and know trading St. Louis was not evidence of giving up on the season, can we assume fans of the same city, given similar media outlets - reading the same newspapers, listening to the same sports radio, etc - will react similarly to the Tampa Bay Rays claim they are also not giving up on the season?

While the Rays front office has made major trades and the team continued winning, has the front office succeeded in building enough fan trust and faith?

Exploring attendance and winning percentage of the Lightning before and after the St. Louis trade, we see not only did the team play better after the trade, but they also drew 12% (225) more fans per game. (Data acquired via hockey-reference.com and hockeyattendance.com.)

Will Rays fans react similar following the David Price trade?

The Lightning had the benefit of the playoff chase to aid attendance down the stretch. If the Rays can continue their winning play, it may be possible they could also benefit the same. If not, and the Rays fall out of contention early, their attendance could drop as it did in 2009 after they traded Scott Kazmir.

If they fall out of contention early, the Rays will have to worry about losing fan interest to their other regional sports neighbor, the biggest sports attraction in Tampa Bay: the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Tampa Bay Business Journal Examines Tampa Area Athletes' Twitter Prowess

Yesterday, the Tampa Bay Business Journal published a list of the Twitter accounts of athletes who play for the big three Tampa Bay sports. They compared the follower counts and number of tweets from players on the Tampa Bay Rays, Tampa Bay Bucs, and Tampa Bay Lightning.

The TBBJ also looked at the team Twitter accounts, comparing the number of tweets and the amount of followers each team had. Of course, since anyone anywhere can create a Twitter account and follow a Tampa Bay area team, there is no way to tell how many of the followers are local.

But we can still dig into the data a bit.

Last week we determined the Tampa Bay Bucs were 3% more popular than the Rays based on Google popularity. This is also the case with Twitter numbers. If you divide the Twitter followers of the Rays team account (151,561) by the Bucs twitter followers (155,006), you again get 97%. So the Bucs are 3% more popular than the Rays on Twitter as well. The Rays are 7% more popular on Twitter than the Lightning (141,690).

The Lightning however, crush the Rays and the Bucs in tweet volume. The Lightning account has tweeted over 31,000 times, more than 10,000 more than the Rays and Bucs accounts combined. The Lightning social media team is doing a great job on Twitter. But that is a subject for another day.

On the topic of individual accounts, I think the Rays got shortchanged as the TBBJ only counted players. While five current Tampa Bay athletes have over 100,000 Twitter followers (removing former Buc Darrelle Revis), the Rays only have two: David Price and Evan Longoria. However, manager Joe Maddon has nearly 154,000. He is the longest tenured manager/head coach in the area and is synonymous with the Rays since they dropped the Devil prior to the 2008 season.

He should be included.

After the big three teams, how do the other Tampa Bay area sports teams compare? We examined the Tampa Bay area minor league teams a few weeks ago in a post that compared them to other minor league teams. But how do they compare with other Tampa Bay sports franchises?

Interesting here is the Tampa Bay Rowdies, despite having at least 130,000 less followers, have tweeted more than the Tampa Bay Rays and Tampa Bay Bucs. Also interesting is that the Tampa Bay Storm have tweeted more than the Dunedin Blue Jays, Clearwater Threshers, and Bradenton Marauders, despite having a short season than the Minor League teams.

Again, this is just twitter and not a good way to judge the local popularity of a team. But it does show some interesting trends.

Tampa Bay Baseball versus summer festivals and concerts

Last week, TBT Soundcheck listed the top 30 music events coming to the Tampa Bay area during the summer of 2014. These concerts will be at venues ranging in size from thousands (the Tampa Bay Times Forum, the MidFlorida Credit Union Amphitheater, Raymond James Stadium, and city parks) to several hundred (mid-sized clubs in Ybor City and St. Petersburg).

The following chart shows the date of each performance and whether or not each of the Tampa Bay area baseball teams have home games on that date.

(Click to enlarge.)

Of course, this is an incomplete list of all the musical performances happening throughout the Tampa Bay area. This is only a list of the biggest events.

Overall, the Bradenton Marauders have the most games (18) coinciding with area concerts and festivals. The Tampa Bay Rays and Tampa Yankees have the least dates with 11. The Rays have one less date to contend than other teams as Weezer is playing at Tropicana Field following the Rays game on June 7th.

As there is no reason to believe area residents spend their money only on baseball, we will be tracking as many concerts and other events that might compete for the dollars of fans throughout the season. If we can find attendance for these festivals and concerts, we will be sure to list it in our posts.

(Disclaimer: I've written for the TBT Soundcheck blog.)

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During Tampa Bay Lightning Games 2007-2014

Welcome to our first post comparing Tampa Bay Rays attendance to the attendance of another Tampa Bay area sports team. This post looks at Rays home attendance at Tropicana Field while the Tampa Bay Lightning are playing home games at the St. Pete/Tampa Bay Times Forum. These facilities are 21.6 to 23.4 miles apart depending on the route. Without traffic, travel between the two should take approximately 30 minutes.

Since 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays and Tampa Bay Lightning have played on the same day 14 times (4 times in 2007, 3 times in 2010, 4 times in 2011, 1 time in 2013, and 2 times in 2014). Of these, 7 occurred while the Lightning were in the playoffs and 2 others occurred on the Rays home opener. They will play at least once more on the same day in 2014 (4/5/2014). This total may increase depending on the Tampa Bay Lightning upcoming playoff schedule.

The following chart depicts the days the Tampa Bay Rays have played on the same day as the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Highlighted boxes = Lightning playoff games.
D/N = Day or Night game.
"Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day" is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452.31 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
"% Difference" is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

Of the 4 times Rays games matched or drew over their average attendance, 2 were on Opening Day (4/6/2007 and 4/6/2010) and 2 were against the New York Yankees (4/10/2010 and 4/24/2013). We have already shown the Yankees impact on Rays attendance here.

Of course, attendance at the Rays game and the Lightning game is not an "either/or" proposition for all fans. While the fans in attendance made a choice to attend one or the other, many fans may have stayed home and watched both games on their TVs or went to a sports bar. These fans chose to attend neither. It can probably be assumed fans who attend neither but watch both are in the majority in the Tampa Bay area.

We will publish an update to this chart following the end of the Tampa Bay Lightning 2014 postseason.