Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Cursing Andy Sonnanstine

I am still catching up with some of the weekend happenings, so this is a little late, but I couldn't resist some deep baseball statistical analysis.

Rays pitcher Andy Sonnanstine has pitched four games this year. He is 2-1 with a 5.55 ERA. He has given up 25 hits in 24.1 innings pitched, walked only four, and opponents are hitting .263 against him.

In his four starts, Sonnanstine won his first and his most recent. Three of these starts have been at Tropicana Field. At home, Sonnanstine has a 5.40 ERA, allowing 11 runs in 18.1 innings. Despite early struggles, in his most recent start, Sonnanstine threw a complete game three-hit shutout against the White Sox.

So what was different between his latest home start and his earlier home outings? Did something magically click?

I don't think so.

You want my theory?

I've been two games at Tropicana Field this year. Both were started by Andy Sonnanstine and were Rays losses. In the two games I've attended, Sonnanstine has allowed 16 hits, 4 home runs, and 11 earned runs in 12.1 innings.

In the game I didn't go to, Sonnanstine threw a complete game shutout.

Even more coincidental, I had tickets to Sonnanstine's latest start but gave them away before I went out of town for the weekend.

I know it's a small sample set, but thus far, Sonnanstine has an 8.18 JSiA ERA (Jordi Scrubbings in Attendance Earned Run Average). His JSiA OBA (Jordi Scrubbings in Attendance Opponents' Batting Average) is .340. His non-JSiA ERA is 2.40 and opponents' are only hitting .173 in non-JSiA situations.

Unfortunately, I think we are into pattern status. I give myself one more Sonnanstine start at the Trop before I admit I am officially Andy Sonnanstine's personal jinx.