Rays cede cheap seats to local Minor League Baseball

Been a while. Not sure if I will post as regularly or just on occasion. But there has been a lot of baseball news in Tampa Bay this offseason. Some of which has been covered very well. For now, when I see an angle that I don’t think is being covered, I’ll discuss it here.)

As most baseball fans in the Tampa Bay area are now aware, last week the Rays announced they are closing off seating in the 300 level, reducing the total capacity in Tropicana Field from 31,042 to somewhere between 25,000-26,000.

Of course, the jury is still out on what the Rays are doing to the space those seats used to occupy. As par for the course, the Rays front office used words like “intimate” and “better fan experience”. Deadspin’s Barry Petchesky rebuked those claims well in his article.

“Intimate,” that buzzword used by every team that moves to a smaller stadium, or renovates its existing one to have a smaller capacity—or just dreams of doing so. It’s about the “fan experience,” you see. Unless the fan experience you’re looking for is buying the cheapest ticket possible because sometimes it’s fun to go to a ballgame and sit in the nosebleeds and eat a dang hotdog.

For now, the Rays claim there will still be cheap ticket options at Tropicana Field. But the Rays still use dynamic pricing so fans only know how much a ticket will cost when tickets are set before the season. By driving up scarcity, and letting the dynamic pricing model take hold as the season progresses, the price of seats goes up according to demand, not by tier. As well, games against the Yankees and Red Sox will always be more expensive, despite attendance against each of those teams decreasing drastically since 2010.

The bigger question remains: Does MLB in Tampa Bay and beyond need cheap ticket options? There are few inexpensive options for NHL, NBA, and NFL games, so why should there be in baseball? Are fans married to the Norman Rockwell myth of knothole gangs looking through wooden fences in the 1940s? 

Are those myths as outdated as speedy lead-off men and starting pitchers?

There will always be inexpensive baseball options in America, and especially in the Tampa Bay area. Despite a 7% decrease from 2016*, Tampa Bay’s four Minor League teams – the Threshers, Marauders, Tarpons, and Blue Jays – combined drew over 350,000 fans for the 8th year in a row in 2018.

(2017 featured Tebow Mania.)

Local Minor League Baseball has always been in competition with the Rays, especially in the spring months of April and May. They market to casual baseball fans with cheaper ticket options, no dynamic pricing, and the same, if not better, “intimacy and fan experience”. There is a reason the Rays worst attended month (May) is typically the local Minor League teams’ best. Tampa Bay area Minor League teams are more conveniently located to most Tampa Bay baseball fans and the teams play outdoors, feature fireworks, and often have the same food and beer options as the Rays.

All for ticket and parking prices far cheaper than Tropicana Field – sometimes as low as $1.

Unlike nearly every other Major League team, the Rays never had a monopoly on low price point baseball in their region. Fans have always had cheaper and more convenient baseball options. And as long as there is Spring Training in Tampa Bay, there will be Florida State League baseball in Tampa Bay.

With their announcement last week, the Rays focused on their niche – dedicated fans who will travel to Tropicana Field to buy tickets to see Major League Baseball. That number will be between 1.1 million and 2.1 million in 2019. Even as the 100-loss Devil Rays, the Rays never drew less than 1 million, so don’t expect attendance to drop that low. And if the current maximum seating is 26,000 per game, the Rays can only max 2.1 million in 81 games.

It will be curious to see if Minor League Baseball in the Tampa Bay area will capitalize on the Rays decision and increase their marketing to casual fans looking for lower price point baseball options.

(It’s good to be back.)

Bradenton Marauders 2017 Attendance Review

Welcome to our second attendance review of 2017 and our eighth attendance review of the Bradenton Marauders. This post continues our series of looking back at trends in Tampa Bay area fan behavior since 2007. Today we look at the home attendance of the 2016 Bradenton Marauders.

Overview: The Bradenton Marauders began play in the Florida State League in 2010. The Marauders play their home games at McKechnie Field. McKechnie Field is also the spring training home of the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 2013, the population of Bradenton was 51,763.

Bradenton Marauders 2017:

Home Games: 63

Total attendance: 79,331 (down 9% from 2016: 87,149)


Per Game Average: 1,300 (down 3% from 2016: 1,340)


Highest attended game: 6,213 on Saturday, April 8th vs Charlotte

Lowest attended game: 541 on Monday, July 31st vs Palm Beach

Double headers: 2 (June 14, July 31)

Cancellations: 6


Average time of game: 2 hours, 39 minutes

Notable rehab assignments: None

Other notable appearances: None

Breakdown:

(red highlight = below annual average of 1,300)

Overall:

By Month:

The following graph depicts the average attendance by month.

By Day of the Week:

Marauders attendance increased 44% on the weekends compared to their average Monday through Thursday attendance.

• Mon-Thurs average attendance: 843
• Fri-Sun average attendance: 1,915
• Increase: 44%

The following graph depicts the average attendance by day.

The following chart shows how often each day outdrew the game prior.

By Opponent:

By Starting Pitcher:

The following chart depicts how attendance varied from one starter to the next. If a pitcher is a great draw, the percentage between he and the prior starter should be higher.

Additional Bradenton Marauders Reviews:

Attendance Review: 2016 Bradenton Marauders
Attendance Review: 2015 Bradenton Marauders
Attendance Review: 2014 Bradenton Marauders
Attendance Review: 2013 Bradenton Marauders
Attendance Review: 2012 Bradenton Marauders
Attendance Review: 2011 Bradenton Marauders
Attendance Review: 2010 Bradenton Marauders

Tampa Bay Area Minor League Trends 2017 - By Team

As we saw in a previous post, Minor League Baseball attendance in the Tampa Bay area increased 5% from 2016. In 2017, Minor League Baseball in 2017 distributed a total 412,212 tickets between the area's four teams.

The totals of each Tampa Bay area teams:

• Clearwater Threshers: 200,293 total / 2,987 per game
• Tampa Yankees: 93,742 total / 1,420 per game
• Bradenton Marauders: 79,331 total / 1,300 per game
• Dunedin Blue Jays: 38,963 total / 562 per game

Clearwater and Tampa saw increases in attendance, while attendance dropped for Bradenton and Dunedin. The following charts depict each team's trends in attendance (total and per game) since 2005 - and 2010 in Bradenton's case. By team breakdowns will occur in a later post.

Clearwater Threshers

• Total: 200,293 (up 10%)
• Per Game: 2,987 (up 10%)
• Ranking in Minor League Baseball: 116 of 303

Total attendance since 2005:

Per game attendance since 2005:

Tampa Yankees

• Total: 93,792 (up 27%)
• Per Game: 1,420 (up 22%)
• Ranking in Minor League Baseball: 202 of 303

Total attendance since 2005:

Per game attendance since 2005:

Bradenton Marauders

• Total: 79,331 (down 9%)
• Per Game: 1,300 (down 3%)
• Ranking in Minor League Baseball: 214 of 303

Total attendance since 2005:

Per game average attendance 2005-2017:

Dunedin Blue Jays

• Total: 38,963 (down 22%)
• Per Game: 573 (down 26%)
• Ranking in Minor League Baseball: 296 of 303

Total attendance since 2005:

Per game average attendance 2005-2017:

Tampa Bay Area Minor League Baseball Totals 2017

In 2017, total attendance for Minor League Baseball in Tampa Bay was 412,212. In total, 260 Florida State League games were played between Bradenton, Clearwater, Dunedin, and Tampa.

412,212 was an increase of 20,128 over 2016's attendance of 392,084. While attendance increased, 2017's attendance was still the second lowest Tampa Bay area Minor League total since the Bradenton Marauders began play in 2010.

The following shows Tampa Bay area Minor League attendance totals since 2005:

Since 2005, almost 5 million tickets have been sold for Minor League Baseball in Tampa Bay.

Returning to 2017, here is how Minor League attendance fared throughout the season. Local Florida State League regular season games started on April 6th and ended on September 2nd.

The large attendance spike in the middle is the July 3-5th weekend. Each local team had a fireworks display that was among their highest draws of the year. The attendance spike on the right in mid-August was when St Lucie Met Tim Tebow visited the Tampa Yankees and Clearwater Threshers. Each team saw an influx of fans hoping to see the ex-NFL quarterback in action.

I'll break down each team later on this week, but here is the overall trends for each of the four local Florida State League teams:

Total Attendance

The following graph depicts the above chart:

Attendance Per Game

The following graph depicts the above chart.

A few things we will discuss in a later post:

• Clearwater's increase
• Dunedin's decrease
• Bradenton's missing games
• The Tebow Effect
• Where the four Tampa Bay Minor League teams rank nationally

Tampa Bay area Minor League Baseball April Attendance Trends 2007-2017

We looked at the Rays April attendance trends last week. This week I want to look at the other four professional baseball teams playing in Tampa Bay. These teams are all members of the Florida State League and play in Spring Training stadiums. Attendance for the Florida State League is never overwhelming, but these teams often have a few games a month that draw very well.

As I have said before, April and May are among the best attended months for Tampa Bay minor league teams. The weather in Tampa Bay is optimal for outside baseball - it is not yet too hot and humid.

Here are the average April attendance for each of the four area Minor League teams from 2007 to 2017. Also listed is the Rays April average and the total amount of Minor League games played in the area that year.

The bottom rows of this chart depict the difference between April 2016 and April 2017. While the Rays and Clearwater Threshers increased, the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Marauders saw significant decreases April over April.

The following graph shows the April average attendance for the four Minor League teams since 2007.

Here we see the Threshers above and beyond the other three teams. The Yankees and Marauders are too far distance-wise from the Threshers for us to estimate any correlation. Florida Auto Exchange Stadium in Dunedin however is only 10 minutes from Clearwater, so it is possible an increase in Threshers attendance could cause a decrease in Blue Jays attendance.

We will now look at each individual team and their April averages since 2007.

Clearwater Threshers

The following graph shows Threshers April attendance since 2007:

Since 2013, Threshers April attendance has increased by over 1,000 fans per game.

Here are the Threshers attendance numbers and percentage increase or decrease since 2007.

Tampa Yankees

The following graph shows the Yankees April average attendance since 2007:

Since 2012, Tampa Yankees April average attendance has declined 810 fans per game. The following are the Yankees attendance numbers and percentage increase or decrease since 2007.

Bradenton Marauders

The following graph shows the Marauders April average attendance since 2010:

Since 2015, Bradenton Marauders April average attendance has declined 540 fans per game, to a similar level they saw in 2012-2014. The following are the Marauders attendance numbers and percentage increase or decrease since 2010.

Dunedin Blue Jays

The following graph shows the Dunedin Blue Jays April average attendance since 2007:

In 2017, the Dunedin Blue Jays had their worst April average attendance since 2007. The following are the Dunedin Blue Jays attendance numbers and percentage increase or decrease since 2007.

Conclusion

Before we judge each team's attendance in 2017 based on April, we have figure where April usually stands in regards to each team's monthly ranking.

• For the Threshers, April is usually their third busiest month.
• For the Yankees, April has been their third busiest month.
• For the Marauders, April is their fourth busiest month.
• For the Blue Jays, April is typically their 2nd best month for attendance.

We will continue to post Tampa Bay area Minor League attendance trends as the season continues.

McKechnie Field is now Corporate Sponsor Stadium

Last week, I wrote that Clearwater's Bright House Field underwent a name change and is now Spectrum Field. In the final few sentences of my post, I wrote how the change from one corporate sponsor to another typically isn't a big deal for fans. The deal with the devil has already been made, whether you call him Satan, Lucifer, or Old Scratch.

As of last week, there were three stadia in the Tampa Bay area named after people important to baseball in the area. Al Lang Stadium, named after the former St Petersburg mayor, is the home of the Tampa Bay Rowdies. Steinbrenner Field will always be named after the former Yankees owner as long as the Yankees are present in Tampa. And since 1967, McKechnie Field in Bradenton was named after Hall of Fame manager and late Bradenton resident Bill McKechnie.

"Was" being the operative word.

Unfortunately, in an absolutely horrible marketing move, the Pittsburgh Pirates sold the name of their Bradenton spring training stadium to the Lake Erie College of Osteopathic Medicine, or LECOM. The facility is now called LECOM Field. According to reports, the City of Bradenton not only received no compensation for the selling of the name, but the people of Bradenton are upset with the change.

As well they should be.

Last Friday, Pirates owner Frank Coonelly stated "LECOM shares our mission to help develop young people into highly trained professionals so that they can pursue their dreams."

Which, interestingly enough, was the same mission as Bill McKechnie when he managed ballplayers. But dead men don't pay naming rights.

Besides the residents of Bradenton, other people upset with the name change include NBC sports baseball writer Craig Calcaterra , Sarasota Herald Tribune columnist Doug Fernandes, and Bill McKechnie's own daughter - who neither the Pirates nor the City of Bradenton informed about the name change.

Seems like an act first, ask questions later decision. Done without taking into account history or public opinion.

While the name change might not affect Pirates spring training attendance, it may affect Bradenton Marauders attendance, which is predominantly driven by local dollars. Locals could vote against the name change by not attending Marauders games. How far fans go to let their frustration known will be interesting to watch this season.

Not a good strategic move considering Maruaders attendance each of the last three seasons, and dropped 15% in 2016 to its lowest level since 2010.

The move also does not reflect well on the Pittsburgh-Bradenton relationship which caused a public relations mess last year when the tourism office distributed Pittsburgh Penguins swag during their playoff series with the Tampa Bay Lightning. Now the Marauders have to deal with an unpopular stadium rebranding.

Good luck.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Changes Since 2007

Over the last few weeks, I have been exploring monthly attendance averages for baseball teams in the Tampa Bay area. I used 2007 as a start date for my research as 2007 was the Rays last year of being the Devil Rays and it was the first year of the Stu Sternberg ownership.

Before we dig into attendance, let's look at two major factors driving attendance: possible people and money available.

For possible people, we'll use the metro population of Tampa Bay from 2007 to 2016:

• 2007: 2,733,678
• 2015: 2,975,225

Difference: +8%

For money available, we'll use Adjusted Median Household Income.

Overall difference between Tampa Bay area median household income 2007 to 2015: -8.2%

The following chart shows the change in average monthly attendance from 2007 to 2016 attendance.

The Marauders had not yet begun play in 2007, so hence the N/As.

Let's explore month by month:

April:

Rays average April attendance in 2007 was 10% higher than it was in 2016. The Rays had 1,937 less fans per game in 2016 than they did in 2007. In 2007, the team started 5-6 and they started 8-7 in 2016. There is also increased awareness in the team and a record of success from 2008-2013.

Meanwhile, every Minor League team in the Tampa Bay area has seen an April attendance increase since 2007. Minor League attendance has increased an average of 1,134 total in April.

• Threshers: +660
• Yankees: +276
• Blue Jays: +198

It is possible some fans opted to go to Minor League Baseball games in the nice Florida April weather than to go to the domed Tropicana Field.

May:

Rays attendance in May 2016 was 38% more than it was in May 2007. The Rays drew 3,000 more on weekdays and nearly 4,000 more per game on weekends in 2016 than they did in 2007. Rays average May attendance in 2015 was actually lower than it was in 2007, so much of the gain was due to something done for 2016.

Minor League average attendance differences were varied between 2007 and 2016.

• Blue Jays: 111
• Threshers: 72
• Yankees: -1,824

Again, a bit misleading in regards to the Yankees since May 2007 Yankees attendance was highlighted by a Roger Clemens rehab assignment that drew 10,000 fans.

June:

Again, the Rays saw a large increase in June average attendance compared to their June 2007 average attendance, drawing over 3,700 more fans per game. This was not only due to the sellout for Pride Night either. Without Pride Night, the Rays still had over 1,000 more fans per game in June 2016 than they did in June 2007.

Minor League June average attendance increased in the case of the Threshers, saw little variance in Dunedin, and decreased in Tampa.

• Threshers: 106
• Blue Jays: 6
• Yankees: -689

July:

A second month where Rays average attendance was lower in 2016 than it was in 2007. We can probably attribute this to lower attendance in games versus the Yankees and Red Sox, neither of whom are the draw they used to be.

July attendance for Threshers increased the most (534 per game), followed by the Blue Jays with 252 per game. We might assume these July increases are mostly because of increased 4th of July extravaganzas.

Meanwhile, Tampa Yankees attendance in July 2016 was 366 fans less per game than Tampa Yankees attendance in July 2007.

August:

The Rays struggled through attendance in August 2016. August 2007 wasn't great, but it was consistently higher with attendance ranging from 23,000 to 10,000.

While Threshers attendance marginally increased, August attendance for both the Blue Jays and the Yankees plummeted.

September:

With Minor League Baseball season complete, the Rays no longer face any regional baseball competition for eyes, butts, or dollars. The Rays drew 27% worse per game in September 2016 than they did in September 2007.

Perhaps this is due to expectations. Perhaps it is due to games against the Yankees and the Red Sox not drawing as well. Perhaps it is because household income has decreased and people are going to games in the summer when the kids are out of school, but not in April or August/September.

While 240,000 more people live in Tampa Bay since 2007, we are seeing only limited increases in baseball attendance. If 50% of the 240,000 are baseball fans (national average), then there is the potential for gains across the board. So far we are not seeing that.

Average difference per game 2007 to 2016:

• Threshers: +230
• Blue Jays: +49
• Yankees: -680
• Rays: -1,587

Are these people not baseball fans? Do they live near any stadium? I could assume they are going to Spring Training only, but total Spring Training attendance in 2016 is 50,000 less than total Spring Training attendance in 2007, albeit with the relocation of the Rays from Al Lang Field in St. Pete to Port Charlotte.

Perhaps a growing economy, more jobs, and an increased population will boost baseball attendance in Tampa Bay. But with increasing market competition from the Lightning, Bucs, Rowdies, and USF sports, baseball in Tampa Bay has a tough road to travel.

Tampa Bay Minor League Baseball Monthly Attendance Averages: 2007-2016

A few weeks ago, I looked at the monthly averages of each minor league team in the Tampa Bay area. I looked at the trends from 2007 to 2016. Some teams had increased, others had decreased. But I analyzed each team individually.

Now I want to combine the charts and see if there are any patterns or any relationship in Minor League attendance trends.

Tampa Bay Minor League Baseball Average Attendance

April:

Here we see the Threshers average attendance climbing, the Yankees dropping, the Marauders increasing then decreasing, and the Blue Jays staying level.

I explored April average attendance earlier in 2016 and came to the following conclusions:

Every Minor League team has seen their April attendance increase since 2007.

• Marauders: +976 per game
• Threshers: +660 per game
• Yankees: +276 per game
• Blue Jays: +198 per game

However, since 2013 the Tampa Yankees April attendance has dropped 21%. It is possible this could be because of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

May:

As I mentioned in the Tampa Yankees trend analysis, 2007 was an anomaly due to a Roger Clemens rehab start. Because of a Yankees steep drop - possibly due to Lightning playoff runs - and Marauders steady increase, the Marauders have caught the Tampa Yankees in average May attendance. The Blue Jays and Threshers have slightly increased.

June:

In the last 10 years, the Threshers attendance has increased less 100 per game and the Blue Jays average June attendance has increased by six. After a huge gain, the Marauders have only increased 200 per game. Meanwhile, the Yankees have decreased almost 700 fans per game in June since 2007.

July:

Since 2007, Threshers average July attendance has increased over 500 fans per game. Blue Jays average attendance has increased over 250 and Marauders attendance increased over 600. Adversely, Tampa Yankees average July attendance has dropped over 300 per game in the last 10 years. Yankees average attendance in 2016 was below Marauders attendance and slightly above Blue Jays attendance.

August/September:

Over the last 10 years, the Threshers an average August increase of 25 fans per game. Marauders attendance has increased nearly 300 fans per August game. On the other hand, Blue Jays average August attendance decreased over 300 fans per game and Tampa Yankees has decreased 800 fans per game in August.

Conclusion:

We don't see much, if any, correlation between Minor League team attendance. According to these charts, even Dunedin and Clearwater do not have much of a relationship. The Tampa Yankees attendance decline needs to be explored. The Marauders have also seen increases early in the season and decreases in the later months.

In my Rays analysis, I broke down average attendance by weekend and weekday attendance. I may want to see if Minor League trends follow the Rays trends in regards to average difference between weekend and weekday attendance in each month. By comparing the difference between weekend and weekday attendance, we can start analyzing local fan behavior.

Perhaps fans are more likely to go to Minor League Baseball during the week. Perhaps there is no correlation between the Rays and each Minor League team.

Bradenton Marauders Attendance Analysis 2010 - 2016: By Month

Welcome to our 1st second-level analysis post on Bradenton Marauders attendance from 2010-2016. This post examines the Marauders attendance by month. This post will look at September games, but only as they pertain to the regular season. Postseason games will be examined at a later date.

First, a look at the Marauders average annual and per game attendance from 2010-2016. From 2010-2016, the Marauders average annual attendance was 94,338. The Marauders per game average in the 461 attended games at McKechnie Field from 2010 to 2016 was 1,432.

Click here for Bradenton Marauders season average attendance 2010-2016 charts and analysis.

Next, we will look at Marauders average attendance by month from 2010 to 2016. The following graph depicts the Marauders average attendance per month.

The following chart depicts their best and worst average attended months.

This chart shows the annual attendance ranking by month each year spanning from 2010 to 2016 as well as the month’s average finish.

(Yellow highlights = Best month/ Red highlights = Worst month)

The next charts depict average attendance per month per year from 2010 to 2016.

April average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:

In April, after two considerable years of increases, average attendance leveled in 2013 and 2014. In 2015, average April attendance increased 38%. Average April attendance decreased 16% in 2016. This decrease was close to the overall decrease between 2015 and 2016 of 15%.

May average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:

In May, Marauders attendance steadily increased until 2016.Following a 53% increase in 2011, there was an 8% decrease in 2012, but then increases or stability until 2015. The 17% decrease in 2016 was slightly above the Marauders overall 2016 average attendance decrease of 15%.

June average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:

In June, Marauders average attendance has decreased almost to their 2010 monthly average. After an 88% increase from 2010 to 2011 and slight to zero increases from 2011 to 2015, Marauders average attendance in June has decreased an average of 600 fans per night.

July average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:

Marauders July average attendance hasn't decreased as much as other months. This is probably due to July 4th or approximate date fireworks promotions. Fireworks promotions are usually among the Marauders highest attended games of the season. The Marauders saw an increase in July in 2016, the only month that increased from 2015 average attendance.

August/September average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:

This is concerning. Marauders average attendance in August has decreased over 20% every year since 2013. It has decreased over 50% since 2013. As death metal band Obituary would say "Chopped in Half". Like June's average attendance, August average attendance in 2016 was only a few hundred more than average August attendance in the Marauders first year. Weather may have something to do with this decrease, but this is a trend the Marauders front office may want to look at.

Percentage Changes Since 2010:

• April: up 126%
• May: up 72.5%
• June: up 29.4%
• July: up 70%
• August/Sept: up 36%

Analysis:

Overall, Bradenton Marauders monthly average attendance has soared since 2010. In each month, average attendance has increased over 2010 monthly average. In the case of April, current average attendance is over double what the 2010 April average was. Because 2010 was the Marauders first year, perhaps there was a lack of experienced marketing or promotions in Bradenton or lack of season ticket sales or lack of awareness by the local fans.

After the huge increase from 2010 to 2011, each month tells its own different story. Some months have almost done away with the 2011 increases, other months have leveled out.

August may require additional research. What is causing three consecutive years of 20% decreases? I may need to sit down the Marauders to get their thoughts on their monthly trends. Perhaps the team loads up on promotions early in the season, boosting attendance. Maybe McKechnie Park is not a fun place to be in August.

The Marauders are an interesting team to explore. They are Tampa Bay's newest team, beginning two years after the Rays made the World Series and as the Major League team was starting to increase their fanbase. They play in one of the nicest and oldest stadiums in the Florida State League and have some of their Major League team's best prospects.

(By the way, how Major League Baseball allowed more cannibalization in Tampa Bay while the Rays fanbase was growing is beyond me. Does not seem like a positive strategic decision.)

The Marauders have not been as successful as the Clearwater Threshers, but draw almost double the attendance of the Dunedin Blue Jays. They have been similar to the attendance draw of the Tampa Yankees. For a team in small-town coastal Florida, that's not bad at all.