Thursday, December 22, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33611

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33611:




The red outline is zip code 33611. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:
  • Estimated Population: 29,478
  • Median Income: $55,00
  • Average Age: 41.6
  • White: 24,868 (84%)
  • Black: 1,846 (6%)
  • Hispanic: 3,609 (12%)
  • Rays fans: 7,517 (51% of baseball fans)
  • Yankees fans: 2,063 (14% of baseball fans)
  • Red Sox fans: 1,032 (7% of baseball fans)
  • Distance to Tropicana Field: 16.7 miles
  • Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 6.6 miles
  • Distance to Bright House Field: 19.7 miles
  • Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 25.3 miles
  • Distance to McKechnie Field: 41.2 miles
  • Distance to Toytown: 9.9 miles
  • Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 7.2 miles

Wednesday, December 21, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance Changes Since 2007

Over the last few weeks, I have been exploring monthly attendance averages for baseball teams in the Tampa Bay area. I used 2007 as a start date for my research as 2007 was the Rays last year of being the Devil Rays and it was the first year of the Stu Sternberg ownership.

Before we dig into attendance, let's look at two major factors driving attendance: possible people and money available.

For possible people, we'll use the metro population of Tampa Bay from 2007 to 2016:

Difference: +8%

For money available, we'll use Adjusted Median Household Income.




Overall difference between Tampa Bay area median household income 2007 to 2015: -8.2%

The following chart shows the change in average monthly attendance from 2007 to 2016 attendance.




The Marauders had not yet begun play in 2007, so hence the N/As.

Let's explore month by month:

April:

Rays average April attendance in 2007 was 10% higher than it was in 2016. The Rays had 1,937 less fans per game in 2016 than they did in 2007. In 2007, the team started 5-6 and they started 8-7 in 2016. There is also increased awareness in the team and a record of success from 2008-2013.

Meanwhile, every Minor League team in the Tampa Bay area has seen an April attendance increase since 2007. Minor League attendance has increased an average of 1,134 total in April.
  • Threshers: +660
  • Yankees: +276
  • Blue Jays: +198

It is possible some fans opted to go to Minor League Baseball games in the nice Florida April weather than to go to the domed Tropicana Field.

May:

Rays attendance in May 2016 was 38% more than it was in May 2007. The Rays drew 3,000 more on weekdays and nearly 4,000 more per game on weekends in 2016 than they did in 2007. Rays average May attendance in 2015 was actually lower than it was in 2007, so much of the gain was due to something done for 2016.

Minor League average attendance differences were varied between 2007 and 2016.
  • Blue Jays: 111
  • Threshers: 72
  • Yankees: -1,824

Again, a bit misleading in regards to the Yankees since May 2007 Yankees attendance was highlighted by a Roger Clemens rehab assignment that drew 10,000 fans.

June:

Again, the Rays saw a large increase in June average attendance compared to their June 2007 average attendance, drawing over 3,700 more fans per game. This was not only due to the sellout for Pride Night either. Without Pride Night, the Rays still had over 1,000 more fans per game in June 2016 than they did in June 2007.

Minor League June average attendance increased in the case of the Threshers, saw little variance in Dunedin, and decreased in Tampa.
  • Threshers: 106
  • Blue Jays: 6
  • Yankees: -689

July:

A second month where Rays average attendance was lower in 2016 than it was in 2007. We can probably attribute this to lower attendance in games versus the Yankees and Red Sox, neither of whom are the draw they used to be.

July attendance for Threshers increased the most (534 per game), followed by the Blue Jays with 252 per game. We might assume these July increases are mostly because of increased 4th of July extravaganzas.

Meanwhile, Tampa Yankees attendance in July 2016 was 366 fans less per game than Tampa Yankees attendance in July 2007.

August:

The Rays struggled through attendance in August 2016. August 2007 wasn't great, but it was consistently higher with attendance ranging from 23,000 to 10,000.

While Threshers attendance marginally increased, August attendance for both the Blue Jays and the Yankees plummeted.

September:

With Minor League Baseball season complete, the Rays no longer face any regional baseball competition for eyes, butts, or dollars. The Rays drew 27% worse per game in September 2016 than they did in September 2007.

Perhaps this is due to expectations. Perhaps it is due to games against the Yankees and the Red Sox not drawing as well. Perhaps it is because household income has decreased and people are going to games in the summer when the kids are out of school, but not in April or August/September.

While 240,000 more people live in Tampa Bay since 2007, we are seeing only limited increases in baseball attendance. If 50% of the 240,000 are baseball fans (national average), then there is the potential for gains across the board. So far we are not seeing that.

Average difference per game 2007 to 2016:
  • Threshers: +230
  • Blue Jays: +49
  • Yankees: -680
  • Rays: -1,587

Are these people not baseball fans? Do they live near any stadium? I could assume they are going to Spring Training only, but total Spring Training attendance in 2016 is 50,000 less than total Spring Training attendance in 2007, albeit with the relocation of the Rays from Al Lang Field in St. Pete to Port Charlotte.

Perhaps a growing economy, more jobs, and an increased population will boost baseball attendance in Tampa Bay. But with increasing market competition from the Lightning, Bucs, Rowdies, and USF sports, baseball in Tampa Bay has a tough road to travel.

Tuesday, December 20, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 34667

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 34667:




The red outline is zip code 34667. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:
  • Estimated Population: 32,144
  • Median Income: $36,685
  • Average Age: 56.3
  • White: 30,468 (95%)
  • Black: 329 (1%)
  • Hispanic: 1,729 (5%)
  • Rays fans: 6,750 (42% of baseball fans)
  • Yankees fans: 3,375 (21% of baseball fans)
  • Red Sox fans: 1,286 (8% of baseball fans)
  • Distance to Tropicana Field: 47.3 miles
  • Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 40.7 miles
  • Distance to Bright House Field: 31.7 miles
  • Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 31.6 miles
  • Distance to McKechnie Field: 83 miles
  • Distance to Toytown: 44 miles
  • Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 41 miles

Monday, December 19, 2016

Tampa Bay Minor League Baseball Monthly Attendance Averages: 2007-2016

A few weeks ago, I looked at the monthly averages of each minor league team in the Tampa Bay area. I looked at the trends from 2007 to 2016. Some teams had increased, others had decreased. But I analyzed each team individually.

Now I want to combine the charts and see if there are any patterns or any relationship in Minor League attendance trends.

Tampa Bay Minor League Baseball Average Attendance

April:




Here we see the Threshers average attendance climbing, the Yankees dropping, the Marauders increasing then decreasing, and the Blue Jays staying level.

I explored April average attendance earlier in 2016 and came to the following conclusions:
Every Minor League team has seen their April attendance increase since 2007.
  • Marauders: +976 per game
  • Threshers: +660 per game
  • Yankees: +276 per game
  • Blue Jays: +198 per game

However, since 2013 the Tampa Yankees April attendance has dropped 21%. It is possible this could be because of the Tampa Bay Lightning.

May:




As I mentioned in the Tampa Yankees trend analysis, 2007 was an anomaly due to a Roger Clemens rehab start. Because of a Yankees steep drop - possibly due to Lightning playoff runs - and Marauders steady increase, the Marauders have caught the Tampa Yankees in average May attendance. The Blue Jays and Threshers have slightly increased.

June:




In the last 10 years, the Threshers attendance has increased less 100 per game and the Blue Jays average June attendance has increased by six. After a huge gain, the Marauders have only increased 200 per game. Meanwhile, the Yankees have decreased almost 700 fans per game in June since 2007.

July:




Since 2007, Threshers average July attendance has increased over 500 fans per game. Blue Jays average attendance has increased over 250 and Marauders attendance increased over 600. Adversely, Tampa Yankees average July attendance has dropped over 300 per game in the last 10 years. Yankees average attendance in 2016 was below Marauders attendance and slightly above Blue Jays attendance.

August/September:




Over the last 10 years, the Threshers an average August increase of 25 fans per game. Marauders attendance has increased nearly 300 fans per August game. On the other hand, Blue Jays average August attendance decreased over 300 fans per game and Tampa Yankees has decreased 800 fans per game in August.

Conclusion:

We don't see much, if any, correlation between Minor League team attendance. According to these charts, even Dunedin and Clearwater do not have much of a relationship. The Tampa Yankees attendance decline needs to be explored. The Marauders have also seen increases early in the season and decreases in the later months.

In my Rays analysis, I broke down average attendance by weekend and weekday attendance. I may want to see if Minor League trends follow the Rays trends in regards to average difference between weekend and weekday attendance in each month. By comparing the difference between weekend and weekday attendance, we can start analyzing local fan behavior.

Perhaps fans are more likely to go to Minor League Baseball during the week. Perhaps there is no correlation between the Rays and each Minor League team.

Sunday, December 18, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33618

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33618:




The red outline is zip code 33618. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:
  • Estimated Population: 25,570
  • Median Income: $59,515
  • Average Age: 42.6
  • White: 21,465 (84%)
  • Black: 1,632 (6.4%)
  • Hispanic: 5,513 (21.6%)
  • Rays fans: 6,137 (48% of baseball fans)
  • Yankees fans: 2,557 (20% of baseball fans)
  • Red Sox fans: 639 (5% of baseball fans)
  • Distance to Tropicana Field: 29.7 miles
  • Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 7.5 miles
  • Distance to Bright House Field: 22.7 miles
  • Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 21.7 miles
  • Distance to McKechnie Field: 54.1 miles
  • Distance to Toytown: 20.5 miles
  • Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 12.7 miles

Friday, December 16, 2016

Interesting 1998 blog post on Expos attendance

I don't usually post about attendance outside of the Tampa Bay market. I don't know enough about other fanbases and any attempts to theorize about how people in other cities spend their money.would be half-baked generalizations.

But every so often a quality attendance analysis catches my eye. Usually these are from Cleveland Indians writer Jacob Rosen, who kills it over at the blog Waiting for Next Year.

The other day however, I found what could only be considered a missing link. A dinosaur bone to an earlier time. A fossilized analysis buried deep in the amber that is the forgotten web.

I found a 1998 tripod.com article on attendance trends of the Montreal Expos.

For those who haven't been around the web long, tripod.com was a late 1990s blogging site like Geocities or Angelfire. These sites were very text heavy and were basic HTML sites, meaning few if any videos, no advanced coding, and many links to other pages. Most were fan pages, categorized by genres such as sports, entertainment, or hobbies.

Blogger Daniel Arnold created such a page for the Montreal Expos. Entitled "Save the Expos!" the website commented on the news of stadium leases, city politics, and owner announcements. It is this site and Shadow of the Stadium eight years earlier.

Arnold even comments on media treatment of the Expos on sites such as CNNSI and ESPN.
"If Pittsburg, Oakland or Minnesota were in danger of losing a team, Baseball Weekly, CNNSI and ESPN would be running an around the clock campaign to save those teams instead of publisizing manipulated facts which hurt the team's survival odds as they are doing with the Expos."

Although we haven't seen as many ridiculous articles on Rays attendance recently (I like to think I've helped stop that a bit), this is true for Tampa Bay now.

As a Rays writer, I never want to write something as sad as this:
For most of the 99 season, it was frustrating to be an Expos fan. Deadlines kept getting pushed back while the team struggled on the field. The media blasted low crowds and despite the fact that the team's future looked bright, Expos fans kept waiting for the word to be made official.
That sounds horribly familiar.

The coup de grace of Save the Expos is the aforementioned attendance post. Entitled "Looking Beyond 5,000", the post compares Expos attendance to other teams' struggles at the gate and concludes that the Expos fanbase is not to blame and will be back given a new stadium and a winning team.
"In light of some poor attendance numbers by the Montreal Expos this year, many people here and in the media have unjustly jumped on the team, claiming that the Expos should move because of a lack of fan support."
Horribly. Familiar.

I mentioned Jacob Rosen and Indians writing earlier in this article. Cleveland and Tampa Bay face similar challenges when it comes to fan attendance. Ironically, Arnold compares Montreal with Cleveland as well.
However, many similarities do exist between Cleveland’s past situation and Montreal's current situation. While Expos fans have supported their team better than Cleveland's over the long haul, consider the following: 3 years before Cleveland moved into Jacobs Field, they had the worst attendance in baseball.
Arnold also points out that the Expos routinely outdrew the Mets and even outdrew the Yankees twice.
Hey, if while we’re talking about New York would you believe that the Expos outdrew the Yankees once? Well they did it twice, in 1982 and 1983. If cities like New York can get away with drawing small crowds, surely Montrealers can be forgiven for staying away from their time at this time.
The population of New York City in July 1984 was slightly over 7 million. In 1986, the metro population of Montreal was 2.9 million. (Btw, 2.9 million is also the current population of the Tampa Bay metro area.)
Which means Expos fans went to more games per fan than Yankees or Mets fans. And the Yankees won 91 games and the Expos won 82.
I think these number reveal clearly that Montrealers have supported their team in the past and that a few bad years of bad crowds do not mean that fans will never come out to support their team.
In 2016, we have much more information at our fingertips. We have access to more public economic data, more public demographic data, and more public marketing data. We can show better charts, convey more convincing analysis, and promote our work better. And as mentioned, I don't like comparing Tampa Bay to other cities. Buyers don't choose between going to a Rays game or going to a Marlins, Braves, or Yankees game. I focus on Tampa Bay's economics, demographics, marketing, and regional competition because that, and only that, is what will make Major League Baseball survive in the area.

But the message and the passion of this site and Daniel Arnold's site from the late 1990s is the same.

Thursday, December 15, 2016

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33626

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33626:



The red outline is zip code 33626. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:
  • Estimated Population: 27,557
  • Median Income: $101,119
  • Average Age: 36.4
  • White: 22,664 (82%)
  • Black: 1,412 (5%)
  • Hispanic: 3,984 (14.5%)
  • Rays fans: 6,614 (48% of baseball fans)
  • Yankees fans: 2,756 (20% of baseball fans)
  • Red Sox fans: 1,240 (9% of baseball fans)
  • Distance to Tropicana Field: 30.3 miles
  • Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 12.5 miles
  • Distance to Bright House Field: 12.8 miles
  • Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 13.3 miles
  • Distance to McKechnie Field: 54.6 miles
  • Distance to Toytown: 22.6 miles
  • Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 18.8 miles

Monday, December 12, 2016

Tampa Yankees Attendance Analysis 2007 - 2016: By Month

Welcome to our 1st second-level analysis post on Tampa Yankees attendance from 2007-2016. This post examines the Yankees attendance by month. This post will look at September games, but only as they pertain to the regular season. Postseason games will be examined at a later date.

First, a look at the Yankees average annual and per game attendance from 2007-2016. From 2007-2016, the Yankees average annual attendance was 101,095,. The Yankees per game average in the 641 games at Steinbrenner Field from 2007 to 2016 was 1,606.

Click here for Tampa Yankees season average attendance 2007-2016 charts and analysis.

Next, we will look at Yankees average attendance by month from 2007 to 2016. The following graph depicts the Yankees average attendance per month.




The following chart depicts their best and worst average attended months.




This chart shows the annual attendance ranking by month each year spanning from 2007 to 2016 as well as the month’s average finish.

(Yellow highlights = Best month/ Red highlights = Worst month)




The next few charts depict average attendance per month per year from 2007 to 2016.

April average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




The Tampa Yankees average attendance in April increased every year from 2007 to 2012. April average attendance declined in 2013 and 2014 and has leveled in the last two years. This new level is similar to their average April attendance in 2008 and 2009, but still 26% above their 2007 average April attendance.

May average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




This chart is slightly misleading. It appears the Yankees had a huge decrease following 2007. However, in May 2007, the Yankees had a Roger Clemens rehab assignment that drew over 10,000 fans.This event, combined with the Yankees usual May promotions, caused May 2007 to be far above average.

Excluding 2007, Tampa Yankees average May attendance was between 2,000 and 3,000 every year until 2016.

June average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




This is a strange chart. We may be able to link the Tampa Yankees May decrease in 2008 and 2009 with the increase in interest in the Rays during those years. After 2009, attendance climbed until reaching a peak in 2014. 2015 and 2016 attendance could be affected by the Tampa Bay Lightning long playoff runs.

July average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




Outside of a blip in 2010, July average attendance had increased every year from 2007 to 2013. In 2014 Tampa Yankees average July attendance started declining and has not stopped. Average July attendance in 2016 was nearly 50% of what average July attendance was in 2013.

August/September average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




While the drop 2008 could have also been attributed to Tampa increase in interest in the Rays, I am perplexed as to why the steep drop in 2016.

Percentage Changes Since 2007:
  • April: up 26%
  • May: down 53%
  • June: down 39%
  • July: down 25%
  • August/Sept: down 50%

Analysis:

Overall, Tampa Yankees per game attendance has decreased 37% per game since 2007 - from 1,848 per game to 1,163 per game in 2016. April is the only month that has not seen a decrease in average attendance since 2007.

The Yankees play in the middle of Tampa in an accessible, highly visible baseball stadium. Lack of ticket purchases could be indicative of a marketing problem. Or perhaps the Yankees are losing baseball fans to Rays television ratings.

I was surprised by the drop in the Yankees attendance in 2016. Through this analysis, we see the decline hit hardest in June and August. What caused these months to be worse than the same month in previous year will need to be explored.

There is a possibility that the new upgrades at Steinbrenner Field could increase attendance in 2017 and beyond.

Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Tampa Wages, Personal Income, Cost of Living, and Baseball

A few economic news and notes on the Tampa Bay area:

Tampa Bay's personal income shows why jobs aren't the answer to economic improvement - Tampa Bay Business Journal, 11/17/2016

A few weeks ago, the Tampa Bay Business Journal wrote about a very interesting fact about Tampa Bay area growth: although the amount of jobs are increasing, per capita personal income remains below average.
Job growth in the market was above the national average for 2015, but many of the jobs that are being added are lower-wage positions in retail, leisure and hospitality

That's not a good thing, especially for sports teams looking for season ticket holders. Season tickets of course cost more than individual tickets. It is however, good news for cheaper alternatives such as Minor League Baseball or Arena League Football.

Florida wages still lag national average — but they are getting closer - Tampa Bay Times, 12/7/2016

The Tampa Bay Times recently took a deeper look into wages in Florida and in Tampa Bay.
Hillsborough's wage is 4 percent behind the U.S. average, while Pinellas trails by 11.4 percent

Again, not a good thing for sports teams. Even if teams lower their prices in order to encourage more ticket sales, they will have less potential income from ticket sales. This puts Tampa Bay area teams at a disadvantage compared to teams in cities with higher average income.

Vinik: Tampa's 'most significant weakness' is wages - Tampa Bay Business Journal, 11/9/2016

There is no doubt that sports teams are aware of the economic tea leaves in the Tampa Bay area. Last month, Lightning owner and huge Tampa Bay area advocate Jeff Vinik stated that better paying jobs and higher wages are essential for Tampa's growth.

Vinik has also stated that Tampa Bay needs to keep baseball. He understands that higher wages are needed to support and grow not only sports, but all of Tampa Bay's businesses. Unfortunately, the biggest industries in the area are military, real estate, and tourism - not particularly high paying professions.

Here's how Tampa metro's cost of living index is performing - Tampa Bay Business Journal, 11/11/2016

Although wages are lower, Tampa Bay residents can take a little bit of solace in know that it is slightly cheaper to live in the Tampa Bay area than it is to live in most US metro areas. According to the Tampa Bay Business Journal, the Tampa Bay cost of living index was a 92.2 in 2016, 7.8 points lower than average. Tampa Bay's three-year average was slightly less at 91.9.

So people get paid less here and it costs less to live here. But people still think the sports market has room to grow.

Those people can't support their argument.

Monday, December 5, 2016

Bradenton Marauders Attendance Analysis 2010 - 2016: By Month

Welcome to our 1st second-level analysis post on Bradenton Marauders attendance from 2010-2016. This post examines the Marauders attendance by month. This post will look at September games, but only as they pertain to the regular season. Postseason games will be examined at a later date.

First, a look at the Marauders average annual and per game attendance from 2010-2016. From 2010-2016, the Marauders average annual attendance was 94,338. The Marauders per game average in the 461 attended games at McKechnie Field from 2010 to 2016 was 1,432.

Click here for Bradenton Marauders season average attendance 2010-2016 charts and analysis.

Next, we will look at Marauders average attendance by month from 2010 to 2016. The following graph depicts the Marauders average attendance per month.




The following chart depicts their best and worst average attended months.




This chart shows the annual attendance ranking by month each year spanning from 2010 to 2016 as well as the month’s average finish.

(Yellow highlights = Best month/ Red highlights = Worst month)




The next charts depict average attendance per month per year from 2010 to 2016.

April average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:




In April, after two considerable years of increases, average attendance leveled in 2013 and 2014. In 2015, average April attendance increased 38%. Average April attendance decreased 16% in 2016. This decrease was close to the overall decrease between 2015 and 2016 of 15%.

May average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:




In May, Marauders attendance steadily increased until 2016.Following a 53% increase in 2011, there was an 8% decrease in 2012, but then increases or stability until 2015. The 17% decrease in 2016 was slightly above the Marauders overall 2016 average attendance decrease of 15%.

June average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:




In June, Marauders average attendance has decreased almost to their 2010 monthly average. After an 88% increase from 2010 to 2011 and slight to zero increases from 2011 to 2015, Marauders average attendance in June has decreased an average of 600 fans per night.

July average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:




Marauders July average attendance hasn't decreased as much as other months. This is probably due to July 4th or approximate date fireworks promotions. Fireworks promotions are usually among the Marauders highest attended games of the season. The Marauders saw an increase in July in 2016, the only month that increased from 2015 average attendance.

August/September average per game attendance 2010 to 2016:




This is concerning. Marauders average attendance in August has decreased over 20% every year since 2013. It has decreased over 50% since 2013. As death metal band Obituary would say "Chopped in Half". Like June's average attendance, August average attendance in 2016 was only a few hundred more than average August attendance in the Marauders first year. Weather may have something to do with this decrease, but this is a trend the Marauders front office may want to look at.

Percentage Changes Since 2010:
  • April: up 126%
  • May: up 72.5%
  • June: up 29.4%
  • July: up 70%
  • August/Sept: up 36%

Analysis:

Overall, Bradenton Marauders monthly average attendance has soared since 2010. In each month, average attendance has increased over 2010 monthly average. In the case of April, current average attendance is over double what the 2010 April average was. Because 2010 was the Marauders first year, perhaps there was a lack of experienced marketing or promotions in Bradenton or lack of season ticket sales or lack of awareness by the local fans.

After the huge increase from 2010 to 2011, each month tells its own different story. Some months have almost done away with the 2011 increases, other months have leveled out.

August may require additional research. What is causing three consecutive years of 20% decreases? I may need to sit down the Marauders to get their thoughts on their monthly trends. Perhaps the team loads up on promotions early in the season, boosting attendance. Maybe McKechnie Park is not a fun place to be in August.

The Marauders are an interesting team to explore. They are Tampa Bay's newest team, beginning two years after the Rays made the World Series and as the Major League team was starting to increase their fanbase. They play in one of the nicest and oldest stadiums in the Florida State League and have some of their Major League team's best prospects.

(By the way, how Major League Baseball allowed more cannibalization in Tampa Bay while the Rays fanbase was growing is beyond me. Does not seem like a positive strategic decision.)

The Marauders have not been as successful as the Clearwater Threshers, but draw almost double the attendance of the Dunedin Blue Jays. They have been similar to the attendance draw of the Tampa Yankees. For a team in small-town coastal Florida, that's not bad at all.

Sunday, November 27, 2016

Dunedin Blue Jays Attendance Analysis 2007 - 2016: By Month

Welcome to our 1st second-level analysis post on Dunedin Blue Jays attendance from 2007-2016. This post examines the Blue Jays attendance by month. This post will look at September games, but only as they pertain to the regular season. Postseason games will be examined at a later date.

First, a look at the Blue Jays average annual and per game attendance from 2007-2016. From 2007-2016, the Blue Jays average annual attendance was 45,578. The Blue Jays per game average in the 656 games at Florida Auto Exchange Stadium from 2007 to 2016 was 730.

Click here for Dunedin Blue Jays season average attendance 2007-2016 charts and analysis.

Next, we will look at Blue Jays average attendance by month from 2007 to 2016. The following graph depicts the Blue Jays average attendance per month.




The following chart depicts their best and worst average attended months.




This chart shows the annual attendance ranking by month each year spanning from 2007 to 2016 as well as the month’s average finish.

(Yellow highlights = Best month/ Red highlights = Worst month)




The next few charts depict average attendance per month per year from 2007 to 2016.

April average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




May average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




June average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




July average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




August/September average per game attendance 2007 to 2016:




Percentage Changes Since 2007:
  • April: up 32%
  • May: up 18.5%
  • June: up 1%
  • July: up 37%
  • August/Sept: down 35%

Analysis:

Overall, Dunedin Blue Jays per game attendance has increased 6% per game since 2007 - from 721 per game to 770 per game in 2016. Most of this increase was due to increases in April and July attendance. This increase is similar to monthly increases in Clearwater Threshers attendance, which is only 10 minutes away from Dunedin.




The biggest difference between the two teams is the Blue Jays have seen a steep drop in Aug/Sept attendance since 2007. In the Threshers post, I stipulated that weather could be the reason attendance has increased in April and May. Better promotions could also be a factor.

July attendance is heavily influenced by 4th of July attendance. The Blue Jays fireworks celebration is typically their most attended game of the year. Since 2012, the Jays have drawn over 4,000 fans per Independence Day fireworks promotion (usually either July 4th or the closest home game to the date). In 2011, the Jays only drew 2,000 to their fireworks event, and in 2010 and earlier, there was no fireworks promotion.

Looking at the by-month chart, the August/September decline began in 2008, the same year the Rays made the World Series. After also declining in 2009, Blue Jays attendance in August/September has only slightly recovered.

The Blue Jays are the lowest drawing Minor League team in the Tampa Bay area. Looking at when people attend their games show us quite a bit about the patterns of baseball attendance in Dunedin and Tampa Bay as a whole.

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Clearwater Threshers Attendance 2005-2016

Over the last few weeks, we have looked at the 2016 attendance of Minor League teams in the Tampa Bay area. This week, I want to look at each team individually, and see how 2016 fares in the context of their attendance since 2007.

Today, we start with the Clearwater Threshers. The Threshers moved into Bright House Field in 2004.

The following chart shows Threshers total games, total attendance, and attendance per game.

While the chart shows 2005 and 2006, the total and average rows are only for 2007-2016, since I do not yet have a game-by-game breakdown of 2005 and 2006.

(Note: Doubleheaders only count for one game's attendance. For example, a team might play 70 games and one doubleheader, thus resulting in only 69 attendance dates. In order to calculate "true" per game attendance, we have to subtract the null game of doubleheaders.)




The Threshers 2016 attendance was the second highest turnout in franchise history, behind only their 2014 turnout. Threshers total attendance has been over 170,000 fans each year since 2010. Threshers average attendance has been over 2,500 each year since 2010. The Threshers remain the highest attended team in the Tampa Bay area and often have been the highest attended team in the Florida State League.

The following graph depicts the total attendance column in the above chart.




The following graph depicts the average per game attendance column in the above chart.


Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Dunedin Blue Jays Attendance 2005-2016

Over the last few weeks, we have looked at the 2016 attendance of Minor League teams in the Tampa Bay area. This week, I want to look at each team individually, and see how 2016 fares in the context of their attendance since 2007.

Today, we start with the Dunedin Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have played in Dunedin since 1977.

The following chart shows Blue Jays total games, total attendance, and attendance per game.

While the chart shows 2005 and 2006, the total and average rows are only for 2007-2016, since I do not yet have a game-by-game breakdown of 2005 and 2006.

(Note: Doubleheaders only count for one game's attendance. For example, a team might play 70 games and one doubleheader, thus resulting in only 69 attendance dates. In order to calculate "true" per game attendance, we have to subtract the null game of doubleheaders.)




The Blue Jays have seen a decline in attendance since 2014. The Jays steep increases in 2011 and 2012 and have been over 50,000 fans per season since. The Blue Jays remain the lowest attended team in the Tampa Bay area and often have been the lowest attended team in the Florida State League.

The following graph depicts the total attendance column in the above chart.




The following graph depicts the average per game attendance column in the above chart.


Monday, November 21, 2016

Tampa Yankees Attendance 2005-2016

Over the last few weeks, we have looked at the 2016 attendance of Minor League teams in the Tampa Bay area. This week, I want to look at each team individually, and see how 2016 fares in the context of their attendance since 2007.

Today, we will look at the Tampa Yankees. The Yankees have been playing in Tampa since 1994.

The following chart shows Yankees total games, total attendance, and attendance per game.

While the chart shows 2005 and 2006, the total and average rows are only for 2007-2016, since I do not yet have a game-by-game breakdown of 2005 and 2006.

(Note: Doubleheaders only count for one game's attendance. For example, a team might play 70 games and one doubleheader, thus resulting in only 69 attendance dates. In order to calculate "true" per game attendance, we have to subtract the null game of doubleheaders.)




The Yankees have seen a decline in attendance since 2013. From 2013 to 2016, annual attendance has declined 39%. Per game attendance has declined 37%. In 2016, the Yankees had their lowest total and per game attendance since before 2005.

The following graph depicts the total attendance column in the above chart.




The following graph depicts the average per game attendance column in the above chart.


Sunday, November 20, 2016

Bradenton Marauders Attendance 2010-2016

Over the last few weeks, we have looked at the 2016 attendance of Minor League teams in the Tampa Bay area. This week, I want to look at each team individually, and see how 2016 fares in the context of their attendance since 2007.

Today, we start with the Bradenton Marauders. The Marauders started play in 2010.

The following chart shows Marauders total games, total attendance, and attendance per game.

(Note: Doubleheaders only count for one game's attendance. For example, a team might play 70 games and one doubleheader, thus resulting in only 69 attendance dates. In order to calculate "true" per game attendance, we have to subtract the null game of doubleheaders.)




The Marauders have seen a decline in attendance since 2013. While the decline was small in 2014 and 2015, attendance declined 151 fans per game in 2016. For the first time since their inaugural season, the Marauders had a total attendance under 100,000 fans.

The following graph depicts the total attendance column in the above chart.




The following graph depicts the average per game attendance column in the above chart.


Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Tampa Bay Rays, Minor League Baseball, and Spring Training Attendance Totals 2007 - 2016

Since I looked at the 2016 attendance trends of the Rays and each Tampa Bay regional Minor League team over the last few weeks, I thought I would bring the view out a little bit, showing how 2016 did in regards to other years. Today we will start with the total market, the Rays, Spring Training, and Minor League Baseball overall.

Next week, we will look at each Minor League team individually.

Overall Tampa Bay Baseball Market

In 2016, the Tampa Bay baseball market drew 2,128,040. This was a decrease of 0.85% (18,202 fans) from 2015's total attendance of 2,146,242. Since 2005, the Tampa Bay Baseball Market has drawn 27,982,200 fans.




The following graph depicts the previous chart.




Rays Attendance since 2005

I've mentioned before that Rays attendance increased in 2016 by 3%. The Rays totaled 1,286,163 fans in 2016. Since 2005, the Rays have totaled 18,004,319, an average of 1,636,756.




The following graph depicts the previous chart.




Since 2005, the Rays have accounted for 64% of baseball tickets sold in Tampa Bay. In 2016, they accounted for 60%, a 2% increase over 2015, but 11% lower than 2009 and 2010 ticket sales.




The following graph depicts the previous chart.




Tampa Bay Minor League Attendance 2005-2016

Since 2005, Minor League Baseball in Tampa Bay has drawn 4,467,565. In 2016, total Minor League attendance decreased 7.5% or 31,912 tickets. This is the second year in a row Minor League attendance in Tampa Bay has decreased. As mentioned, individual team analysis by year will be posted next week.




The following graph depicts the previous chart.




Tampa Bay Spring Training 2005-2016

I covered regional Spring Training in depth earlier this year but just to reiterate, regional Spring Training decreased 5% in 2016 to 449,793.




The following graph depicts the previous chart.