Rays Owner Comments on Payroll and Attendance, Doesn't Make Sense

On Wednesday, Tampa Bay Times writer Marc Tompkin published bits from his latest sitdown with Rays owner Stu Sternberg. The big draw from the interview was that the Rays will be cutting payroll from the $80 million level they were at in 2014 to something much lower - which Cork Gaines of Rays Index estimates won't be hard after trading David Price and possibly moving Ben Zobrist.

Tompkin also asked Sternberg about attendance and the fanbase.

First, Tompkin mentioned the Rays are on a pace to average 1.43 million fans this year. This is a misnomer. If the Rays get exactly their to-date season average of 17,627 fans per game each of the last six home games, then yes, they will be close to 1.43 million. But that's not going to happen.

The Rays have three more games at Tropicana Field against the Yankees. Derek Jeter is scheduled to appear. Attendance will be above 17,627. That's a guarantee. Putting the average for the upcoming Yankees series at 22,000 per game, attendance will end at 1.44 million. It's not a significant increase, but it is more realistic. Unless a meteor hits Tropicana Field before the Yankees series, the Rays attendance will be higher than what Tompkin predicted.

But I digress.

According to Tompkin, Stu Sternberg said the following:

Their majors-low attendance, on pace for 1.43 million, seems to be "in a steady state" with little change based on how the team does: "I don't know what'll dramatically push the attendance up. And I do believe that a number of years of really losing baseball, we're in jeopardy.''

Yes, since 2011, the Rays attendance has been in a "steady state".

• 2011: 1.53 million (91 wins)
• 2012: 1.56 million (90 wins)
• 2013: 1.53 million (92 wins)
• 2014: est. 1.45 million (75-80 wins?)

In 2007, the Devil Rays drew 1.38 million fans and lost 96 games, winning 66. That means with the current size of the fan base and fans' proclivity to travel to games, 25 wins only equals 150,000 fans. 15 wins only equals 70,000 fans.

What will push attendance up (excluding any relocation of play)?

Expanding the fan base. Aggressive marketing. More perks for season ticket holders (use the Lightning as an example). Better promotions. Less intrusive security. Improve the fan experience. Iron out the pre-game autograph rules. Get creative.

Sternberg's next line, "And I do believe that a number of years of really losing baseball, we're in jeopardy.'' makes no sense to me. Did Tompkin leave out a word?

Is it supposed to be "And I do believe that AFTER a number of years of really losing baseball, we're in jeopardy.'?' Could he have said "And I do believe that a number of years of really losing baseball, AND we're in jeopardy.''?

Either could be, but why? The team lost 97 games every year from 1998-2007. They drew only 150,000 less fans then when they last won 90 games. Over the last four years, winning and losing has had little effect on the Rays attendance. Perhaps Sternberg thinks winning is the key to creating new fans.

It's a start, but it has only worked so much so far.