Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 34668

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 34668:

The red outline is zip code 34668. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:

• Estimated Population: 42,619
• Median Income: $31,620
• Average Age: 46.8
• White: 38,466 (90.3%)
• Black: 1,160 (2.7%)
• Hispanic: 4,939 (11.6%)
• Rays fans: 9,376 (44% of baseball fans)
• Yankees fans: 4,262 (20% of baseball fans)
• Red Sox fans: 2,131 (10% of baseball fans)
• Distance to Tropicana Field: 42.2 miles
• Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 39.6 miles
• Distance to Bright House Field: 24.7 miles
• Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 23.7 miles
• Distance to McKechnie Field: 66 miles
• Distance to Toytown: 36.9 miles
• Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 45.9 miles

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33615

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33615:

The red outline is zip code 33615. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:

• Estimated Population: 43,453
• Median Income: $47,617
• Average Age: 38.2
• White: 33,020 (76.0%)
• Black: 4,253 (9.8%)
• Hispanic: 19,484 (44.8%)
• Rays fans: 9,994 (46% of baseball fans)
• Yankees fans: 4,563 (21% of baseball fans)
• Red Sox fans: 1,521 (7% of baseball fans)
• Distance to Tropicana Field: 23.8 miles
• Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 6.4 miles
• Distance to Bright House Field: 14.2 miles
• Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 14.7 miles
• Distance to McKechnie Field: 47.7 miles
• Distance to Toytown: 16.4 miles
• Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 12.6 miles

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33612

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33612:

The red outline is zip code 33612. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:

• Estimated Population: 44,601
• Median Income: $28,309
• Average Age: 34.5
• White: 24,698 (55.4%)
• Black: 14,020 (31.4%)
• Hispanic: 12,750 (28.6%)
• Rays fans: 11,150 (50% of baseball fans)
• Yankees fans: 4,237 (19% of baseball fans)
• Red Sox fans: 1,561 (7% of baseball fans)
• Distance to Tropicana Field: 26.4 miles
• Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 9.7 miles
• Distance to Bright House Field: 17.7 miles
• Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 31.9 miles
• Distance to McKechnie Field: 53.2 miles
• Distance to Toytown: 22.3 miles
• Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 7.7 miles

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33614

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33614:

The red outline is zip code 33614. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:

• Estimated Population: 46,449
• Median Income: $34,038
• Average Age: 35.4
• White: 34,217 (73.7%)
• Black: 5,424 (11.7%)
• Hispanic: 28,346 (61%)
• Rays fans: 10,916 (47% of baseball fans)
• Yankees fans: 4,180 (18% of baseball fans)
• Red Sox fans: 1,626 (7% of baseball fans)
• Distance to Tropicana Field: 24.5 miles
• Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 2.8 miles
• Distance to Bright House Field: 17.7 miles
• Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 23.2 miles
• Distance to McKechnie Field: 49.2 miles
• Distance to Toytown: 17.1 miles
• Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 7.6 miles

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33511

Continuing our deep-dive into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33511:

The red outline is zip code 33511. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:

• Estimated Population: 52,003
• Median Income: $54,000
• Average Age: 36.2
• White: 37,503 (72.1%)
• Black: 7,982 (15.3%)
• Hispanic: 11,192 (21.5%)
• Rays fans: 14,041 (54% of baseball fans)
• Yankees fans: 5,200 (20% of baseball fans)
• Red Sox fans: 1,040 (4% of baseball fans)
• Distance to Tropicana Field: 35.3 miles
• Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 18 miles
• Distance to Bright House Field: 32.2 miles
• Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 37.7 miles
• Distance to McKechnie Field: 39.5 miles
• Distance to Toytown: 27.9 miles
• Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 12.6 miles

Tampa Bay Baseball Market Zip Code Analysis: 33647

Starting something new today. Today I am going to start deep-diving into the most populated zip codes in the Tampa Bay area. We will look at who lives there, how much money they have, what baseball teams they root for, and how far they are to baseball.

Statistics are acquired via census.gov, Facebook/New York Times study, Google Maps.

Assumptions: We are assuming two things. 1) The population of baseball fans is 50% of the total population. 2) The same ratio of fans who "like" a team on Facebook holds for the rest of the population.

Without further ado, Zip Code 33647:

The red outline is zip code 33647. The red dot is Tropicana Field.

Demographic breakdown:

• Estimated Population: 55,034
• Median Income: $73,373
• Average Age: 33.2
• White: 36,610 (66.5%)
• Black: 7,989 (14.5%)
• Hispanic: 9,177 (16.7%)
• Rays fans: 13,759 (50% of baseball fans)
• Yankees fans: 5,228 (19% of baseball fans)
• Red Sox fans: 1,651 (6% of baseball fans)
• Distance to Tropicana Field: 43.7 miles
• Distance to Steinbrenner Field: 26.3 miles
• Distance to Bright House Field: 40.5 miles
• Distance to Florida Auto Exchange Stadium: 46.0 miles
• Distance to McKechnie Field: 54.6 miles
• Distance to Toytown: 36.2 miles
• Distance to Tampa Park Apartments: 22.4 miles

New Tampa Bay Business Journal article on Rays business practices

Alexis Muellner of the Tampa Bay Business Journal wrote a fantastic article on Rays new President Jeff Cogen in the January 29th edition of the TBBJ (subscriber or print only). Muellner sat down with Cogen to learn about his philosophy on marketing, partnerships, promotions, and how the Rays intend on increasing attendance.

Besides citing me in background data (shameless self-promotion), Muellner provides some interesting insight on the new Rays business:

"Cogen spent his summer vacation building more pace, urgency, and accountability into the Rays' sales and marketing teams."

I've said before that perhaps the Rays marketing needed an infusion. Processes had gotten stale. The Rays can't market like other teams, nor can their methodology stay the same since 2008. Cogen is providing new eyes and new thoughts to the process.

"Of the 1.25 million in attendance in 2015, roughly 700,000 unique visitors came to the Trop"

I have a few problems with this. First of all, does it assume every fan who paid in cash was a unique visitor? I know few people pay with cash these days, but if they do, how do the Rays track this? Do they use facial recognition software at the ticket booth?

Anyway, so the average fan went to 1.78 games. Let's do some additional math:

The Rays highest attended series was against the Mets on Aug 6-8. Total attendance was 80,468. If we estimate 50% of those fans were Mets fans, is it possible those Mets fans went to all 3 games or did they only go to one game? Should you count visiting fans among those who attend more than one game? Isn't the job of the Rays ticket office to sell the Rays? How much do they market to opposing fans?

The problem with targeting opposing fans with marketing efforts is it a short-term relationship. Opposing fans aren't going to have the long-term relationship the front office is trying to build. As much as they probably don't want to admit it, the Rays probably don't mind Yankees fans who come to the Trop a few times a year to see the Bronx Bombers. It is the reality of Tampa Bay.

But most opposing fans aren't going to go a third time as Cogen states would be the goal. Unless they are attending a game each series in the case of the Yankees or every game in a series in the case of interleague opponents.

"did we just break 2 million? What kind of a story would that be?"

Although Stu Sternberg recently claimed he would need 2.5 million to "work", the Rays have often stated 2 million in attendance is an ideal goal. That would be 24,691 per night. Even if the Rays sold out every Friday, Saturday, and Sunday game (40 games) they would still need to draw 758,320 on weekdays. That would be 18,958 per weekday. That would be 6,000 per night more than drew in 2015 and similar to what they drew on weekdays in 2010.

That's quite a challenge.

Note: In 2012, I wrote a post for DRaysBay entitled "The Quest for 2 Million: 12 Ways to Help Market the Rays". Hard to believe that post was four years ago. Here is a sample of what I wrote:

"I think the Rays need to be more creative in their pitches to get people to the ballpark. Everyone knows the economy in the Tampa Bay area stinks, traffic is a mess, and Tropicana Field is not optimally located. We know. We also know the Rays front office is smart enough to make chicken salad out of a payroll that could only afford chicken droppings. So why can’t they do the same for butts in the seats?"

According to Alexis Muellner's profile of Jeff Cogen, perhaps they are finally doing that.

My latest on Fangraphs.com: Baseball distance and demographics in Tampa Bay

Since I started this website, I've always tried to keep a few ideas aside for websites with bigger readerships. Whether other Rays websites or baseball-wide research websites, these articles are tests in both my conclusions and my ability to write for different audiences, many who are often unfamiliar with my work here.

One of my favorite national sites to write for is Fangraphs.com. For those unfamiliar, they are a site that focuses on in-depth baseball research. You gotta know your stuff to write there. Of course, not all of my work can go these - it is doubtful they care about daily attendance reports - but every so often I will submit to them an article with reach - either one that compares the Rays situation to others in the league, or one that can help clarify the complex realities that is Tampa Bay area professional baseball.

On Friday, Fangraphs published my most recent submission: an exploration of the 11-most populated zip codes in Tampa Bay, who they root for, and how far they to baseball. I looked at various zip codes in Hillsborough, Pasco, and Pinellas and the results were a little more extreme than I expected. Then I added the Facebook "Like" data from the New York Times article from a few years ago and saw who was were and who were they rooting for.

Needless to say, the Rays don't fare very well.

Check it out and let me know what you think:

The Complex Problem of Tampa Bay Baseball Distances and Demographics - Fangraphs.com

Rays focus their strategy, add daily ticket deals

Since I started this website, I've have emphasized that the Rays overall attendance is weak mostly because of their weekday attendance. Weekend attendance, while not as good as other teams, hasn't been quite as bad. The following graph depicts the Rays weekend and weekday average attendance since 2007.

In what could be the first attempt to improve weekday attendance, the Rays have announced daily ticket deals catered to certain demographics of their fanbase.  According to the Tampa Bay Times,

The Rays are pushing aggressive promotions and discounts this year, offering those in the military and veterans free admission on Mondays, while cutting kids' ticket prices to $2 on Tuesdays and charging just $2 for hot dogs every Wednesday. Seniors can get $15 tickets for games on Thursday. Students get the same deal on Fridays.

While there is no mention as to whether these deals apply to "premium" games or whether walk-up tickets will still have an additional penalty, this list does include a cheap hot dog day, just as I had hoped.

It is very interesting to see the Rays mimic what local Minor League teams have done for years. In 2015, for example, the Tampa Yankees also had Military Monday, where those with a Military ID received free admission to Steinbrenner Field.

Meanwhile, the Bradenton Marauders had three Mondays where they gave away free tickets. Those Bradenton games averaged 4,643 fans per game.

While the Rays saw 12,110 fans per Tuesday, the Threshers $1 Tuesday promotion averaged 3,313 fans per game. Both the Marauders and the Tampa Yankees both had 2-for-1 ticket Tuesday promotions in 2015.

On Wednesday in 2015, the Tampa Yankees had Kids Eat Free Wednesdays, while the Threshers hosted their Silver Sharks Club for fans over the age of 55.

We see two big differences between the Rays current promotions and the Minor League clubs' 2015 offerings. On Thursday, both the Threshers and the Marauders held Thirsty Thursday, with discounted alcohol on Thursday. The Rays did not announce any alcohol discounts. The Rays did however create a ticket special for students, which is something none of the Minor League teams had.

Will the Minor League teams continue with their same promotions? Or will they increase the discounts for local baseball fans? Contrary to what many people want to believe, the Rays and the Minor League teams are in a battle for expendable income. As are every movie theater, performing arts center, or sporting event in Tampa Bay. They all act in their own self-interest. In 2014, for example, the Threshers added post-game concerts to their promotion schedule and saw the second highest attendance in Florida State League history.

Of course, the Rays still can't do fireworks, something each of the Minor League teams do on or near July 4th. For every MiLB team in the area, their Independence Day gala is usually their highest attended game.

Robert Trigaux of the Tampa Bay Times cited an interesting quote from new Rays front office member Jeff Cogen. According to Trigaux, Cogen stated "the franchise has had lots of good marketing ideas, but needed to sharpen them so that it was clear what their value was to Rays fans". This points to a lack of big picture strategy. Having ideas but not implementing them correctly is a leadership issue. Good leaders are able to slot good ideas into a strategy for success. The Rays might have had a vision to be the region's team, but their marketing strategy was lacking on many fronts. Maybe it was getting stale and just needed a fresh set of eyes.

I've said plenty of times that the Rays need to provide incentive for people in the area to be Rays fans. That incentive hasn't been there. They also need to provide incentive for the fans they do have to come to Tropicana Field. That incentive also hasn't been there.

Tampa Bay is difficult baseball market. But there are just as many baseball fans in Tampa Bay as anywhere else. Baseball is successful here, as evident by the total number of attendees to Spring Training, Minor League games, and the Rays. Because of the competition, the Rays need to work harder than most teams to win the market.

Cogen is absolutely right when he states that Rays attendance isn't a problem, but an "opportunity". Tampa Bay is a challenge. Leaders rise to challenges.

Rays Front Office Personnel discussing sports

There are two events coming up this month in which Rays fans, media, and other interested folks can chat with prominent Rays front office personnel.

On February 9th, the Tampa Bay Business Journal will be hosting the third annual 2016 Business of Sports. For $80, fans can hear from a panel that includes

• Tampa Bay Lightning CEO, Steve Griggs
• Abe Madkour, Editor-in-chief, SportsBusiness Journal “State of the Industry”
• Brian Ford, COO, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• Brian Auld, President, Tampa Bay Rays
• Bill Abercrombie, Exec VP of Partnership/Suites Development, Tampa Bay Lightning
• Karri Zarimba, Founder, Venuetize
• Rob Higgins, Executive Director, Tampa Sports Commission
• Perry Van der Beck, Assistant GM, Tampa Bay Rowdies
• Marc LeSage, VP Sales, FOX Sports Florida
• Gary “Sheff” Sheffield, Retired MLB Outfielder
• Noah Pransky, Reporter, WTSP/CBS-10, and writer at Shadow of the Stadium

I went to this event last year and will probably go this year. Last year, there was no one from the Rays at the event. This year, there is no one from Minor League Baseball. But this year I will also have the opportunity to finally meet with Noah Pransky, which would be a good thing. Asking Gary Sheffield about his failed attempts to bring the Atlanta Braves to area might also be fun.

A few weeks later, on February 29th, the Poynter Institute is hosting a discussion with the owners of the Tampa Bay Rays and Tampa Bay Lightning and the co-chair of the Tampa Bay Bucs. For $75, members of the public can hear these front office personnel "discuss the business of professional sports before a gathering of the Associated Press Sports Editors (APSE) and members of the general public."

Even though the TBBJ event is $5 more expensive, it is probably the better deal. One, it comes with a ticket to a Lightning game. Two, there are more speakers and probably a better chance to network and ask questions. Three, there is probably little chance Rays owner Stu Sternberg would be willing to answer any questions I ask about the Rays perception of their market. Sternberg is too high up the organization chart to discuss my level of questioning. And even if he did, he would probably only give the political answer.

So if you go to the TBBJ event on February 9th, look for me and say hello.

SABR Chicago Presentation on MLB Attendance - Rays discussion

A few weeks ago, I mentioned the work of independent baseball statistician Scott Lindholm. Lindholm recently gave a presentation on MLB attendance trends to a SABR Chicago/Milwaukee gathering. The whole briefing is interesting, if you like big picture data trends.

Here are the links to Part 1 and Part 2, where Lindholm discusses MLB, the Cubs, White Sox, and the Brewers.

In Part 3 of his presentation, Lindholm gives his thoughts on Rays attendance. Lindholm is not from Tampa Bay so he assumes "wins = attendance", which Tampa Bay has proven is not true. If you put a stadium in Siberia, few people will go, even if the team is undefeated. There is a norm for how far people will travel for baseball. The further out from the park a population is, the smaller the percentage of fans that will attend.





I don't want to criticize Lindholm for the work he did. It's all great stuff. But while overall attendance is great, when he starts getting into individual teams, his presentation has gaps. These gaps show the need for local attendance subject matter experts. Ones who can add context to data and tell the whole story.