Monday, June 27, 2011

Looking Ahead to the Second Half of the Florida State League Part 1:The North Division

(This post originally appeared on Bus Leagues Baseball.com)

The middle of June is usually nothing to look forward to in Florida. The weather is approaching the mid-90s, the humidity is rising, it's starting to rain everyday between 4pm and 6pm, hurricane season is slowly creeping upon us, and the summer gas increases behold us to our local area. It's not fun. But fortunately we have baseball to guide us through the summer swoon.

As the Rays slowly approach their mid-season hiatus, the teams of the Florida State League are loading up for round 2 of their season. With Daytona and St. Lucie already locks for the playoffs, it's time to take a look at each team and see who did well, who did not so well, and maybe what to expect in the second half.

Today we will look at the North Division and sometime in the next few days we will look at the South.

From worst to first:

Brevard County Manatees

First Half Record: 27-43

Who did well: Khristopher Davis and Brock Kjeldgaard lead the offense, which was middle of the pack with 4.53 runs per game. The 23-year old Davis hit over .300 with an OBP of over .400 while the 25-year old Kjeldgaard currently has 18 home runs, tying the franchise record.

Who didn't do well: Pitching is not a strong point for the Manatees. They allowed a league worst 5.15 runs per game.

What to expect in the second half: More of the same. I wouldn't be surprised if Kjeldgaard got the call up to AA. He is, after all, 25 years old and doesn't exactly have time on his side. Although long term his ISO power numbers are probably not sustainable (currently .300).

Lakeland Flying Tigers

First Half Record: 36-34

Who did well: Closer Kenny Faulk has struck out 25% of the batters he has faced this year and is holding opponents to a .244 batting average. He has also only given up 1 home run in the last two seasons.

Who didn't do well: Despite being one of the youngest players in the Florida State League, Daniel Fields continues to struggle. Fields has struck out 35% of his at bats and his K/BB ratio is half of what it was last year.

What to expect in the second half: Lakeland's best player, shortstop Gustavo Nunez, was promoted to AA recently, so they will miss his bat in the lineup. The bullpen should continue to be solid, but starters Cole Nelson and Trevor Feeney need to get on track.

Tampa Yankees

First Half Record: 37-32

Who did well: Starting pitcher Jairo Heredia has found his groove. After getting shelled in Tampa in 2010, the 21-year old righty is keeping his walks down and striking out more than a batter an inning, resulting in an 8-1 record.

Who didn't do well: Jose Ramirez. Despite being ranked 24th in Baseball America's Yankees prospect list, the young righty is 0-5 with a putrid 8.14 ERA. This after I wrote highly of him on MiLB.com back in April. Oops.

What to expect in the second half: Luke Murton, the brother of the legendary Thunder Matt, will unleash a vengeance upon American baseball for the shunning of his older sibling. He will strike balls through the fences and annihilate the Florida State League like a Class 5 hurricane.

Dunedin Blue Jays

Record: 39-32

Who did well: Outfielder Brad Glenn is tearing it up, hitting 16 home runs already. Caution must be taken however, as his OBP is down, his walks per game are down, and his strikeouts are up. That's not good.

Who didn't do well: 1B/3B/DH Sean Ochniko only hit .216 for the first half. That's not good. However, his walks were up, his ISO power numbers were up, and his BA for balls in play (BABIP) was a completely unlucky .217. If he gets that back up around .300, he should show stark improvement in the second half.

What to expect in the second half: Glenn to do worse, Ochniko to do better, and their baritone beer sales man to get a job in radio.

Clearwater Threshers

Record: 39-30

Who did well: 20-year old catcher Sebastian Valle is smoking with a .343 batting average. That doesn't come without a caveat, however, his BABIP is currently over .400, which is super high, even considering the fielding aptitude of Florida State League players. He should settle a bit although hitting for contact was a concern he has obviously conquered.

Who didn't do well: Troy Hansawa. No offense to Mr. Hansawa, but if you are a 25-year old 5'9 155 lbs shortstop in the Florida State League, and you are only hitting .235, time is running out.

What to expect in the second half: Even though I am a little biased because I wrote about him, I expect a few more home runs or power from prized prospect Jonathan Singleton. He should settle in after a half-season getting used to the FSL and his new position in left field.

Daytona Cubs

Record: 47-23

Who did well: Pitcher Robert Whitenack did so well in the Florida State League, he was promoted after four starts. All he did was go 4-0 with more than a strikeout an inning and only one walk in 23 innings. That's impressive.

Who didn't do well: Despite a 5-4 record out of the bullpen, righty reliever Brett Ebinger struggled with a 7.12 ERA. His left-on-base percentage was also a really low 54%. That should go up and his ERA should decrease.

What to expect in the second half: While most people might want to yell when they see prospect Michael Burgess the recipient of a ghastly .190 batting average. Of course, there is more than meets the eye, as his BABIP is a ridiculously low .227. That should go up.