For the sixth time since 2005, the Sports Business Journal conducted an in-depth ranking of Minor League Baseball markets. Over 200 markets were ranked and studied with the goal of finding the best overall place in the country for Minor League Baseball.
Here are the results for 2015, 2013, and 2011.
Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay market has not fared well in these rankings. Let's look at the results and trends and then explore why I don't think the Sports Business Journal understands the Tampa Bay market very well.
Clearwater/Dunedin:
Bradenton:
Tampa:
According to its methodology page,
Tampa is not ranked because "Markets that are home to an MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL or MLS franchise are not measured."
Bradenton, which began play in 2010 (too late for the 2011 rankings), saw a 9-point increase between 2013 and 2015 most likely because the "92 markets where construction was completed on at least one new or extensively upgraded minor league facility between Jan. 1, 2010, and July 31, 2015, received extra credit."
With the above rankings in mind, there are two major flaws in the SBJ ranking of Tampa Bay area Minor League teams:
In regards to attendance, all of the Minor League teams in the area are doomed from the start. They may have received deductions in the attendance rank category as "overall percentage of seats filled over the five-year period" was one of the weighing considerations. Tampa Bay minor league teams play in Spring Training stadiums and often don't fill 20% of capacity.
The second major problem with the Sports Business Journal rankings is their idea of market. Each of the Tampa Bay area Minor League teams are in the Rays market. I've written often about how the Tampa Bay market is unique in its baseball saturation. But let's look at other Minor League teams close to Major League teams and see how they fare in the Sports Business Journal rankings.
(Complete list of distances for all 164 Minor League teams here.)
Of the Minor League teams closest to Major League teams, Clearwater and Dunedin are the best "market within a market". The Potomac Nationals are the only other team in the top 100. Five of the 11 are below 100 and three are not ranked.
We can assume, like Tampa, Brooklyn is not ranked in 2015 or 2013 due to its NBA franchise (Brooklyn Nets). In 2011, however, Brooklyn was on the SBJ list and ranked 115th. I have no idea why Wilmington was not ranked.
More importantly, what is the cut-off between a Major League market and a Minor League market? If these teams are so close to MLB stadiums, why are they considered their own market? Shouldn't there be an arbitrary MLB market radius?
According to the SBJ:
That makes sense. However, the SBJ contradicts itself when it states they changed their market analysis because:
Don't fans residing in Minor League markets closest to Major League Baseball visit MLB stadiums? Don't the closest Minor League teams promote within the Major League team's market?
I wonder if there is any correlation between the SBJ market rankings and the distance from Major League parks. The number one ranked market, the Quad Cities, is 3 hours from Wrigley Field. Are teams further away from Major League Baseball generally higher in Minor League market ranking?
That will definitely be a study for a later date.
With the average Minor League team 2 hours, 44 minutes and 179 miles from Major League Baseball, if there is a correlation between distance and a better market, the Tampa Bay Minor League teams might never shine in the Rays shadow.
Here are the results for 2015, 2013, and 2011.
Unfortunately, the Tampa Bay market has not fared well in these rankings. Let's look at the results and trends and then explore why I don't think the Sports Business Journal understands the Tampa Bay market very well.
Clearwater/Dunedin:
- 2011: 23rd of 241
- 2013: 31st of 229
- 2015: 45th of 212
Bradenton:
- 2011: N/A
- 2013: 165th of 229
- 2015: 156th of 212
Tampa:
- 2011: N/A
- 2013: N/A
- 2015: N/A
According to its methodology page,
Each market’s total score is the result of three category-specific measures: tenure rank, attendance rank and economic rank
Tampa is not ranked because "Markets that are home to an MLB, NFL, NBA, NHL or MLS franchise are not measured."
Bradenton, which began play in 2010 (too late for the 2011 rankings), saw a 9-point increase between 2013 and 2015 most likely because the "92 markets where construction was completed on at least one new or extensively upgraded minor league facility between Jan. 1, 2010, and July 31, 2015, received extra credit."
With the above rankings in mind, there are two major flaws in the SBJ ranking of Tampa Bay area Minor League teams:
- Attendance ranking is misleading
- Market definition and bleed-over
In regards to attendance, all of the Minor League teams in the area are doomed from the start. They may have received deductions in the attendance rank category as "overall percentage of seats filled over the five-year period" was one of the weighing considerations. Tampa Bay minor league teams play in Spring Training stadiums and often don't fill 20% of capacity.
The second major problem with the Sports Business Journal rankings is their idea of market. Each of the Tampa Bay area Minor League teams are in the Rays market. I've written often about how the Tampa Bay market is unique in its baseball saturation. But let's look at other Minor League teams close to Major League teams and see how they fare in the Sports Business Journal rankings.
(Complete list of distances for all 164 Minor League teams here.)
Of the Minor League teams closest to Major League teams, Clearwater and Dunedin are the best "market within a market". The Potomac Nationals are the only other team in the top 100. Five of the 11 are below 100 and three are not ranked.
We can assume, like Tampa, Brooklyn is not ranked in 2015 or 2013 due to its NBA franchise (Brooklyn Nets). In 2011, however, Brooklyn was on the SBJ list and ranked 115th. I have no idea why Wilmington was not ranked.
More importantly, what is the cut-off between a Major League market and a Minor League market? If these teams are so close to MLB stadiums, why are they considered their own market? Shouldn't there be an arbitrary MLB market radius?
According to the SBJ:
Each team in this year’s survey was assigned a territory based on the location of its home venue within one of the U.S. Census Bureau’s 917 metropolitan (areas with a population of at least 50,000) and micropolitan (less than 50,000) market designations.
That makes sense. However, the SBJ contradicts itself when it states they changed their market analysis because:
the willingness of fans to visit a new stadium outside their own home-team markets, paired with the propensity of most clubs to market well beyond their own county lines, placed less significance for the sake of this study on the historic boundaries as defined by the leagues.
Don't fans residing in Minor League markets closest to Major League Baseball visit MLB stadiums? Don't the closest Minor League teams promote within the Major League team's market?
I wonder if there is any correlation between the SBJ market rankings and the distance from Major League parks. The number one ranked market, the Quad Cities, is 3 hours from Wrigley Field. Are teams further away from Major League Baseball generally higher in Minor League market ranking?
That will definitely be a study for a later date.
With the average Minor League team 2 hours, 44 minutes and 179 miles from Major League Baseball, if there is a correlation between distance and a better market, the Tampa Bay Minor League teams might never shine in the Rays shadow.