Turns out, not much.
Last year, however, the Rays saw their biggest increase in attendance from the 1/3 point to the end of the season since 2008.
The circumstances surrounding 2008 and 2015 could not have been more different, however. In 2008, the Rays saw a huge bump due to their playoff run. In 2015, attendance increased over the final 54 games because hockey season was over and area sports fans started attending Rays games again. In 2015, the Rays had four games on the same date as Tampa Bay Lightning playoff games.
Interestingly, 2015 was the first year since 2007 that Rays attendance increased over the final 54 games and the Rays did not make the playoffs. They had done so in 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2013.
This graph depicts Rays attendance at Game 27 and final Rays attendance.
This year, the Rays reached Game 27 on Friday, June 10th. This is the latest in the season they reached their 27th home game in 10 years.
With attendance at Game 27 being a good indicator for what the final average attendance, we can create a range of final expected average attendance for the Rays in 2016.
The highest post-Game 27 increase came in 2015. Using that 5.1% increase:
- 16,568 x 105.1% = 17,412
- 17,412 x 81 games = 1,410,450
The lowest post-Game 27 decrease came in 2014. Using that 3% decrease:
- 16,568 x 97% = 16,070
- 16,070 x 81 games = 1,301,747
Only a difference of 108,703. The biggest factor could be if the Rays are in the contention for a playoff spot.