Response to Rays Index chart on Rays attendance vs Rays payroll

Over at RaysIndex.com, friend of the site Cork Gaines posted a very interesting and colorful graph comparing the Tampa Bay Rays attendance compared to their payroll. Cork looks to see whether or not there is any correlation between attendance increases and decreases and payroll increases and decreases. It is a really neat chart, check it out.

In summary, Cork concludes there is no correlation.

I agree.

However, I wanted to add a few comments and thoughts on the Rays Index chart.

First, while attendance may not be sensitive to payroll increases, attendance in the Tampa Bay area may be sensitive to large payroll decreases. Especially when the Rays lose key players, as they did after the 2010 season when all-stars Carl Crawford and Rafael Soriano signed with the Red Sox and Yankees, respectively. The Rays lost star power to rivals and attendance dropped 18% to the 1.5 million level, a level it has stayed at for the past three seasons.

The Rays did retain their star power this season by signing David Price to a one year extension. Price will be paid $14 million this season and as I showed in the post on attendance for starting pitchers, more fans than average have consistently come out to see the all-star left-hander (11.95% more in 2013 and 6.38% more since his debut).

On the other hand, the Rays are unlikely to add star power via large payroll increases. The team chooses to develop quality talent and retain them instead of signing free agents to large contracts. While they did sign closer Grant Balfour this offseason, it is highly doubtful the Balfour signing will increase attendance to a significant degree, as fans do not come out to see closers pitch (with the rare exception of Mariano Rivera). So the payroll increase in that case should not be expected to affect attendance.

The Rays Index chart definitely proves prognosticators should not expect fans to flood the gates just because the Rays spent more money. Who they spent it on, their star power, and other factors are much more important.

Thoughts on Flex Packs and the Rays 2014 Marketing Strategy

Yesterday, the Tampa Bay Business Journal posted an article on the Tampa Bay Rays 2014 marketing strategy. According to writer Alexis Muellner, the Rays strategy is highly focused on the team's new "flex pack" ticket buying concept.

With the card plans, fans can buy seats in three, six or nine-game bundles with no blackout dates, and the ability to pick games at any time.

I am curious to see how well the "flex pack" cards work. Will fans use them for high profile games only (ie. weekends vs Yankees or Red Sox)? Or will fans use them for more "cheaper" games (ie a Tuesday night game vs the Royals or Twins)?

Is this a concentrated effort by the Rays to fix a problem, or are they introducing a new idea in an effort to get novelty bump in attendance? If it is to fix a problem, what problem are they attacking?

Would this reduce the amount of physical tickets on the secondary market? According to the Rays website:

No paper tickets will be issued. Your Rays Card is your ticket to the game.

I can see the flex pack resulting in more tickets purchased in 2014. The article cites the Rays have already sold over 10,000. The flex pack is a novel concept that according to the article is unique to the Rays and is not employed by any other team. But are fans buying flex packs instead of season ticket packages? Will one substitute for the other?

The flex pack is an interesting new arrow in the ticket office's quill. How effective it will be is one of the more interesting marketing questions of the Rays 2014 season.

Personally, I have always bought season ticket packages based on day (Fridays usually), allowing me to schedule the game as a part of my regular week (get off work and go to a game). Purchasing an amount of undated tickets with no specified commitment to attend would probably result in me putting games off or forgetting to attend. Sort of like a Christmas gift card I forget to use.

Attendance Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs AL Central Opponents 2007-2013

Welcome to our 9th second-level analysis post on Tampa Bay Rays attendance from 2007-2013. This post examines home attendance versus AL Central opponents. We will show attendance against the White Sox, Indians, Tigers, Royals, and Twins and what percentage increase or decrease attendance playing these teams has over the average attendance for that particular year.

For a look at Rays attendance trends vs AL East teams, click here.

(For an examination of Rays attendance by month, click here. For an examination of Rays attendance by day of the week, click here. For an examination of attendance by starting pitcher, click here. For an examination of attendance by promotions, click here. For a look at Rays attendance during winning streaks, click here. And for a look at Rays attendance for post-game concerts, click here.)

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Chicago White Sox.

The following graph shows the annual per game average vs the Chicago White Sox compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Cleveland Indians.

The following graph shows the annual per game average vs the Cleveland Indians compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Detroit Tigers.

The following graph shows the annual per game average vs the Detroit Tigers compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Kansas City Royals.

The following graph shows the annual per game average vs the Kansas City Royals compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Minnesota Twins.

The following graph shows the annual per game average vs the Minnesota Twins compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

Attendance Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays vs AL East Opponents 2007-2013

Welcome to our 8th second-level analysis post on Tampa Bay Rays attendance from 2007-2013. This post examines home attendance versus AL East opponents. We will show attendance against the Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, and Blue Jays what percentage increase or decrease attendance playing these teams has over the average attendance for that particular year.

(For an examination of Rays attendance by month, click here. For an examination of Rays attendance by day of the week, click here. For an examination of attendance by starting pitcher, click here. For an examination of attendance by promotions, click here. For a look at Rays attendance during winning streaks, click here. And for a look at Rays attendance for post-game concerts, click here.)

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Baltimore Orioles.

Note: The Orioles were the opponent for three Rays home openers during this time (2010, 2011, 2013). Each of these games were sell-outs and probably would have been regardless of opponent.

The following is a graph showing the annual per game average vs the Baltimore Orioles compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Boston Red Sox.

The following graph shows the annual per game average vs the Boston Red Sox compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the New York Yankees.

Note: The Rays 2009 and 2012 home openers were versus the New York Yankees. Each of these games were sell-outs and probably would have been regardless of opponent.

The following graph shows the annual per game average vs the New York Yankees compared to the Rays overall annual per game average.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Note: In 2008, the Rays played three games versus the Blue Jays at Disney's Wide World of Sports. This games are not included in our study as they did not affect attendance in the Tampa Bay area.

Note 2: The Rays 2007 home opener was versus the Toronto Blue Jays. This game was a sell-out and probably would have been regardless of opponent.

The following chart looks at Rays home average attendance in games against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Attendance Analysis: Tampa Bay Rays Winning Streak Attendance 2007-2013

Welcome to our 7th second-level analysis post on Tampa Bay Rays attendance from 2007-2013. This post examines home attendance during winning streaks of five or more games. We will show the attendance during games 6 and on and what percentage increase or decrease attendance during winning streaks has over the average attendance for that particular day of the week in that particular year.

Note: This post looks at attendance during home games only. Road winning streaks are not included, as they have little effect on home attendance. Some games during the initial 5-game streak may occur on the road and winning streaks may end on the road. But this post concerns itself only with the home games that occur during a winning streak.

The following chart looks at the longest winning streak during the 2007 season.

2008:

2009:

2010:

2011:

September 28, 2011 (Game 5 of the final winning streak) is better known in Rays history as Game 162 and was the final home game of the 2011 regular season.

2012:

2013:

Conclusion: Due to the high amount of below average attended games (19 of 26), we can conclude winning streaks have very little, if any, bearing on Tampa Bay Rays home game attendance. Would winning streaks have any effect if the Rays went 162-0 or even came close to the 2002 Oakland A's and won 20 in a row or the 1916 Giants and won 26 consecutive games? It is possible. But there is a small chance of that happening and that's not something the Rays can expect. The winning streaks above, however, are indicative of the current 90-96 win ball club.

Despite the dismal conclusion, it is possible to assume 7-game winning streaks may have an effect on attendance, as the only example we have shows a 54.02% increase over average for a Thursday game, a game that occurred during the day of July 11th, 2013 versus the Minnesota Twins, an opponent that only averaged 15,450 per game in 2013. While the pitcher on the mound for the Rays was Matt Moore, and his starts averaged only 17,113 in 2013, something had to be responsible for the increased turnout.

However, the following day, with an 8-game winning streak on the line, only 13,347 fans came to Tropicana Field on a Friday night, -19.64% below average.

Tampa Yankees Daily Promotions Schedule 2014

The Tampa Yankees announced their daily deals schedule for the upcoming season at Steinbrenner Field.

• SUNDAYS: Seniors (55+) eat select items free with purchase of a ticket. Also, all kids 14 and under receive FREE admission.
• MONDAYS: Military Monday - all military members receive FREE admission with a valid military I.D. All fans can enjoy half price burgers, chicken tender baskets and small sodas from 6:00-8:00pm.
• TUESDAYS: 2-for-1 Tuesday - fans can buy 1 ticket, get 1 ticket FREE and get "2-for-1" scooter dogs, small popcorn, peanuts, small sodas, programs and speed pitch. Half price bottled beer from 6:00-8:00pm.
• WEDNESDAYS: Kids Night - Kids 14-and-under receive a coupon for a FREE scooter dog, cracker jacks, and small soda with the purchase of a reserved ticket ($5)! Kids runs the bases after the game.
• THURSDAYS: Throwback Thursday - fans can enjoy throwback prices: $2 Reserved Tickets and $1 General Admission Tickets. There will also be 14 oz. Ice Cold Draft Beer for $2, $1 small sodas and half price nachos from 6:00-8:00pm.
• FRIDAYS: Social Media Friday - All Social Media Fans/Followers can enjoy $2 admission. Select Drink Specials and $10 all-you-can-eat chicken wings and $1 small sodas at the grill. All from 6:00-8:00pm.
• SATURDAYS: Friends and Family Night - A family of 4 can enjoy: 4 reserved tickets, 4 hot dogs, 4 chips, 4 sodas, 4 Tampa Yankees caps, and 2 passes to Tampa's Lowry Park Zoo for $38.

There is a lot of cheap food, drinks, and ticket giveaways here. Also interesting to see the Tampa Yankees working with another area attraction (the Lowry Park Zoo) in a joint effort. Also, parking is free all season at Steinbrenner Field, making it one of the most affordable places to see baseball in the Tampa Bay area. Which is fine for the Yankees parent club, as most of the organization's Florida income comes from their highly attended Spring Training games.

We will have more analysis on the Tampa Yankees in upcoming weeks, including whether or not wins and losses affect attendance for the Yankees' Florida State League team.

Attendance Analysis: Tampa Bay Area Spring Training 2005-2013

[Update: We found additional numbers and ironed out some discrepancies.]

This post will look at Spring Training annual trends for teams training in the Tampa Bay area from 2005 to 2013. We aren't going to spend too much time on Spring Training numbers on this site, as the number of out-of-town fans and income generated by tourism holds a significant unknown sway. Regular season games have a higher number of local or regional fans and are hence a clearer reflection of baseball interest in the area and that's what this site is about.

However, today we will present a few charts and graphs to give an idea of how Spring Training attendance is faring in the Tampa Bay area.

The following teams train or have trained in the Tampa Bay area since 2005:

• Tampa Bay Rays (St Petersburg) - 2005-2008
• New York Yankees (Tampa) - 2005-2013
• Philadelphia Phillies (Clearwater) - 2005-2013
• Toronto Blue Jays (Dunedin) - 2005-2013
• Pittsburgh Pirates (Bradenton) - 2005-2013

This chart shows overall per game attendance from 2005-2014.

The following chart shows the yearly total averages and percentage increase or decrease of all the teams spring training in the Tampa Bay area.

The following graph breaks out individual team per game attendance.

The Yankees and Phillies have been above average every year, while the Pirates and Blue Jays have been below.

According to Wikipedia, the current capacities for each team's stadium are as follows:

• Steinbrenner Field (Yankees): 11,000
• Bright House Field (Phillies): 8,500
• McKechnie Field (Pirates): 8,500
• Florida Auto Exchange Stadium (Blue Jays): 5,521

We will now look at each individual team's average Spring Training attendance from 2008-2013.

Rays:

The Rays moved their Spring Training to Port Charlotte after the 2008 season.

Yankees:

Phillies:

Blue Jays:

Pirates:

Overall, while the Yankees have maintained a steady spring attendance, the Phillies have been in zero growth or decline since 2010. The Pirates, on the other hand, have either been zero growth or high growth also since 2010. It will be interesting to see if the up-and-coming Pirates and surpass the Tampa Bay Area average and catch the Phillies in per game attendance.

Meanwhile, in Dunedin, the Blue Jays, while slowly increasing, are still at the bottom of attendance. But Florida Auto Exchange Stadium does serve Canadian beer such as LaBatts and Molson. So they have that going for them.

University of South Florida Baseball sets attendance record

We haven't even considered including college baseball on this site, but baseball is baseball. And fans who go to college baseball instead of a professional baseball game being played at the same time are definitely making a choice. And that affects the market.

While 6,696 baseball fans were at Clearwater's Bright House Field to see a spring training game between the Toronto Blue Jays and Philadelphia Phillies, 3,615 baseball fans were at the University of South Florida Baseball Stadium to watch USF take on the #2 ranked Florida State Seminoles. Fans filled the stands, lined the fences, and even sat on the steps of the rows as the game broke USF's previous attendance record by 404 fans.

So while Bright House Field was 79% capacity, USF's baseball stadium was at 112.6% capacity. With college baseball overlapping Spring Training and the first two months of the professional Major and Minor League seasons, maybe we need to track college baseball as well.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance Analysis: By Post-Game Concert 2008-2013

Welcome to our 6th second-level analysis post on Tampa Bay Rays attendance from 2007-2013. This post examines attendance per post-game concert by day of the week. We will show what percentage increase or decrease post-game concerts have over the average attendance for that particular day of the week.

For the Rays 2014 promotional schedule, click here.

(For an examination of Rays attendance by month, click here. For an examination of Rays attendance by day of the week, click here. For an examination of attendance by starting pitcher, click here.)

The following chart breaks out concerts by Day of the Week and compares the average attendance per post-game concert to the annual attendance average for that day. Note: the Rays post-game concert series began in 2008.

(Yellow highlight equals negative difference. Click to enlarge.)

The following chart lists the highest and lowest attended concert for each year.

The following chart shows performers who have had two post-game concerts, attendance for each game, the difference between first and second appearances, and the total attendance for each performer.

(Yellow highlight equals higher attendance. Click to enlarge.)

The following graph depicts average Saturday post-game concert attendance per year compared to average Saturday attendance per year.

The following graph depicts average Friday post-game concert attendance per year compared to average Friday attendance per year.

The following graph depicts average Sunday post-game concert attendance per year compared to average Sunday attendance per year.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance Analysis: By Promotion 2007-2013

Welcome to our 5th second-level analysis post on Tampa Bay Rays attendance from 2007-2013. This post examines attendance per promotion. For the Rays 2014 promotional schedule, click here.

(Note: This post will look at October games, but only as they pertain to the regular season. Postseason games will be examined at a later date.)

(For an examination of Rays attendance by month, click here. For an examination of Rays attendance by day of the week, click here. For an examination of attendance by starting pitcher, click here.)

The following charts compare attendance per promotion to overall annual attendance averages. Future posts will look at promotion versus the average attendance for each specific day.

Our first chart looks at giveaways, to include hats, t-shirts, figurines, and everything except bobbleheads.

Here is a graphic representation of giveaway average attendance compared to yearly attendance average.

Here is the Rays average attendance for bobblehead giveaways. We have separated bobbleheads as they have a distinct secondary and collectable market.

This graph depicts the Rays average attendance during bobblehead promotions and the Rays annual average attendance.

(We have included the Joe Maddon Gnome in 2013 as a bobblehead and not just a "giveaway".)

Here is the average post-game concert attendance versus average annual average attendance.

This graph depicts average post-game concert attendance versus average annual average attendance.

We will look more in-depth at concert attendance and compare post-game concert attendance difference versus average day of the week attendance in an upcoming post.

This chart depicts the Rays average attendance on "First Fridays". First Fridays take place only a few blocks from Tropicana Field. According its website,

"First Friday is a monthly get-together on a roped-off block in downtown St. Petersburg that helps people meet up with friends and helps the Optimist Club raise funds for important projects. It has been the Club’s most successful fundraiser for eight years running.

The free event includes live music, refreshments for sale and local restaurants and merchants on hand to serve the needs of approximately 3,000 people who attend the evening of entertainment each month."

This graph depicts the Rays average attendance on First Fridays compared to the team's annual Friday averages.