A look at the Rays final TV ratings

Back in August, I dove into the Rays television ratings. Last week, Maury Brown of Forbes and the Business of Sports Network wrote about the overall final ratings for Major League Baseball.

In sum, according to Brown, Major League Baseball did very well on television.

Overall, 17 MLB teams—over half the league—rank in the top 3 in local prime time (7p-11p) TV ratings on their respective RSNs.

As of August, the Rays broadcast was second in the Tampa Bay area with a rating of 4.32 and was seen by an average of 79,000 households per night. For the season, the Rays ended second in the market with a rating of 4.01 and an average of 73,000 households watching per night.

Doing a little math, we can see the Rays ratings dropped 21.5% during the end of the season.

Brown's initial ratings post in August looked at ratings from March  31 to July 24. As of July 24, the Rays had played 102 games. 97 of those games were televised on Sun Sports. In total, that means 7,663,000 people watched Rays baseball on Sun Sports through July 24.

Through 150 broadcasts, Sun Sports averaged 73,000 households. That means a total of 10,950,000 households watched the Rays throughout 2014. If we subtract the 7.66 million of the first 102 games, we see 3,287,000 total households watched the Rays on Sun Sports from July 25 to Sept 28, the Rays final Sun Sports broadcast.

That means an average of 62,019 households per game watched the Rays final 53 games, 17,000 less households per game than watched their first 97 games.

97 broadcasts x 79,000 avg households = 7,663,000

150 broadcasts x 73,000 avg households = 10,950,000

3,287,000 total households divided by 53 games = 62,019 avg households

There are many reasons why the Rays saw less viewers over their last 53 games. First and foremost, was the Rays lack of contention. On July 23rd, the Rays were two games under .500, despite winning 8 in a row. They would win their 9th in a row, but would not reach .500 until August 15th. By then, their playoff odds were diminishing daily.

Also, a week after July 23rd, the Rays traded David Price to the Detroit Tigers. While Drew Smyly pitched well for the Rays, we can safely assume he does not have the allure of Price, one of the Rays most popular players, their only 2014 all-star, and only Cy Young award winner. Fair or not, many fans may have tuned out the Rays after they moved Price, although to the organization's credit, attendance at Tropicana Field was higher after Price's trade.

Despite their drop, the Rays Sun Sports broadcast remained 13th in MLB in television ratings. In August, they were the only broadcast of the 28 measured teams second in their local market (12 teams were 1st, 15 were 3rd or lower). By the end of the season, the Rays Sun Sports broadcast remained the second most watched prime time show in Tampa Bay, although the Cincinnati Reds regional broadcast dropped from first in its market to second, joining the Rays broadcast in that distinction (11 were first, 15 were 3rd or lower).

According to Brown's research, while Sun Sports Rays broadcasts were the number two rated show in prime time in the Tampa Bay market, the local CBS affiliate (WTSP) was number one. Coincidentally, CBS was also number one in Cincinnati, Minneapolis, and San Diego.

Whatever was on CBS in those cities at that time must have been good.

So, yes, Sun Sports is correct when it tweeted it was "number one among all cable networks in primetime (7pm-11pm) in the #Tampa market".

As Obi-Wan Kenobi once said, "you're going to find that many of the truths we cling to depend greatly on our own point of view."

Attendance Review: 2014 Tampa Bay Rays

Welcome to our second attendance review of 2014 and our eighth attendance review of the Tampa Bay Rays. Today we will look at the home attendance of the 2014 Tampa Bay Rays.

Total attendance: 1,446,465 (down 4.23% from 2013: 1,510,300)

Per Game Average: 17,857.59 (down 788 fans per game from 2013: 18,465.68)

Highest attended games: 2 x 31,042 (Opening Day 3/31 vs TOR, 8/16 vs NYY.)

Lowest attended game: 9,751 on Thurs, Apr 3rd vs TOR.

Lowest point of average attendance: April 3, Game 4 (15,634)

Breakdown:

(red shading = below annual average of 17,858)

Overall:

By Month:

Since Opening Day was March 31, March and April are combined. August was the Rays best month and June was the worst. Click here for a breakdown of August attendance and here for a breakdown of June. June was the worst attended month since 2007.

The following graph depicts the average attendance by month.

By Day of the Week:

Following typical trends, the Rays drew poorly during the week, better on Friday, and over 20,000 on weekends. Monday's average attendance was aided by the Opening Day sellout. Rays attendance increased over 60% on the weekends compared to their average Monday through Thursday attendance.

• Mon-Thurs average attendance: 14,297
• Sat-Sun average attendance: 23,161
• Increase: 61.7%

The following graph depicts the average attendance by day.

The following chart shows how often each day outdrew the day prior.

As to be expected, no Monday game outdrew a prior Sunday. 23% of Sunday games outdrew the Saturday before it, and every Saturday game outdrew the Friday game played the day prior. Tuesday through Thursday were near 50% in regards to whether or not they outdrew the day prior.

By Opponent:

Nothing surprising here. The Rays highest drawing opponent was the New York Yankees. Attendance versus the Yankees is mostly driven by the high percentage of New Yorkers and non-NY-born Yankees fans in Florida (click here for our demographic study).

This year was unusual as the Rays played 10 home games versus Boston, Toronto, and New York. Typically, they are only scheduled for nine. The Rays also only played two games versus the Marlins this year, whereas they usually play three. And this was the first year in the history of the franchise interleague games versus the Marlins were on weekdays.

By Starting Pitcher:

Among pitchers who pitched 10 or more home games, David Price again was the biggest draw. This average was aided greatly by Price's start on Opening Day.

Of pitchers with 10 or more home starts, attendance was lowest for Jake Odorizzi's starts. Five Odorizzi starts failed to draw over 12,500 and Odorizzi only started five weekend games.

This chart depicts how attendance reacted from one starter to the next. If a pitcher is a great draw, the percentage between he and the prior starter should be higher.

Among starting pitchers with 10 home starts, Alex Cobb's starts drew more than the game prior 61.5% of the time (8 of 13). Of his 13 starts, Cobb pitched 3 weekend games, 2 games versus the Yankees, and 2 games versus prominent ex-Rays pitchers (Matt Garza and David Price).

By Promotion:

Although "First Friday" is not a Rays promotion, it is a nighttime block party hosted by the City of St. Petersburg several blocks away from Tropicana Field. We include it here because the two events could either aid or detract from each other.

Alumni days were promotions catering to alumni of University of South Florida, Florida State University, and University of Florida. These promotions usually involved a giveaway for fans who bought a special promotions-based ticket. Among the three universities, the University of Florida promotion drew the most fans.

• UF Saturday Night: 26,659
• FSU Sunday Day: 25,877
• USF Saturday Night: 23,656

The following chart shows how well promotions did compared to the prior day's attendance.

Although First Fridays did not draw well compared to the overall Friday average, First Friday games outdrew the Thursday before it 75% of the time (3 of 4), which is higher than the overall Friday over Thursday percentage (69%).

Camp Days (Park and Recreation Days) were special events for local kids summer camps held on Wednesday during the summer. Each Camp Day outdrew the Tuesday prior game.

Day Game / Night Game Splits:

As shown, the Rays drew better on weekends than weekends. Among weekday games, day weekday games outdrew night weekday games by over 1,000 fans (possibly aided by the Camp Day promotions).

Perhaps the Rays should play all their games on Saturday night. They went 7-0 on Saturday nights and drew their highest average attendance (25,620).

Overall, in their 36 home wins, the Rays drew 19,228 fans per game. In their 45 home losses, they drew 16,761 per game.

We will have further breakdowns of these attendance numbers and how they relate to long-term trends in upcoming posts.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance Review: September 2014

This post will explore Rays home attendance from September 1 to September 21, 2014. In case you missed it, here are the April, May, June, July, and August Attendance Reviews. Previous years' month-by-month breakdowns are covered here.

Overall figures:

• Total September 2014 Tampa Bay Rays home attendance: 218,256
• August home games: 13
• Average attendance per game: 16,789
• Highest attendance: 21,830 on Sat, September 20
• Lowest attendance: 10,125 on Tues, September 2
• Highest average attended series: 21,259 vs New York Yankees, September 15-17
• Lowest average attended series: 10,260 vs Toronto, September 2-4

Competing area sporting events:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers - September 7 (att: 62,442)
• University of South Florida Football - September 6 (att: 28,915)
• University of South Florida Football - September 19 (att: 28,723)
• 2 Minor League Baseball games (avg attendance: 1,336 per game).

From 2007 to 2013, the September monthly average has been slightly above the Rays overall monthly average. September had the highest attendance in 2008 and 2010, was last in 2009, and finished 5th in attendance in 2012 and 2014. From 2007 to 2013, the average September attendance is 1.12% higher than the overall 2007-2013 average attendance.

• 2007-2013 Average Attendance: 20,475.72
• 2007-2013 September Average Attendance: 20,715.27
• Difference: +240
• Percentage: +1.12%

We will be using +1.12% as the "September factor" when we calculate how the Rays drew in 2014 compared to past results.

The following chart shows the percentage difference between the mathematically predicted Rays attendance and the actual attendance.

• 2007-2013 Avg = Rays average attendance vs specific opponent on that day since 2007. Calculated here.
• Bobblehead Bump = Average increase in attendance due to bobblehead giveaways on specific days since 2007. Calculated here.

Rays attendance exceeded their past average only once (September 17). They failed to meet their past average on all other dates.

On September 17th, the Rays exceeded attendance expectations by 6%. September 17th was Yankee all-star Derek Jeter's last appearance as a player at Tropicana Field. Given the large amount of New York Yankees fans in Florida, it is not surprising many fans came to see Jeter take the field one last time.

Comparing September 2014 with Previous Years

We will now compare the September 2014 average attendance to September attendance in other recent years.

September 2014 was the worst September since before 2007. September 2014 was 1,389 fans per game less than September 2013. Attendance in September 2014 was 42% lower than attendance in the highest September average attendance in 2008.

The below chart compares games played, record, and average attendance of the September 2014 Rays and the September 2012 Rays. Over the same amount of games, the 2014 Rays won less and drew less fans.

Through Game 81

We can't only compare attendance by past averages and overall months, we have to look at the trends based on where we are in the season. We will deep dive into the final totals more in a later post, but for now, the following chart depicts the Rays average attendance through Game 81 from 2007 to 2014.

September 21st is tied for the earliest date the Rays reached Home Game 81. They also played Game 81 on September 21st in 2008. The latest date the Rays played their 81st home game was on October 4 in 2009.

The Rays 2014 Game 81 average is below their 2007-2013 Game 81 average (20,475.72) by 3,011 fans per game. The average attendance at Game 81 in 2014 is the second worst since 2007, trailing only 2007.

By Game 81 in 2014 the Rays played the same amount of weekend and weekday games they have in most seasons from 2007 to 2013. During the 2014 season, the Rays played two more home games versus the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees, the Rays' two highest drawing opponents, than they did during any season since 2007.

The following graph shows how the Rays 2014 final attendance compares to previous years.

This post concludes analysis into the Rays monthly attendance for 2014. We will have a longer deep dive into the Rays overall 2014 attendance soon as well as breakdowns by day, by month, by opponent, and by promotion.

Gary Sheffield thinks the Tampa area needs another Spring Training team

According to The Laker/Lutz News (a local Tampa suburb publication), former MLB star Gary Sheffield is supporting a group building a huge baseball complex in Wesley Chapel, an area just north of Tampa city limits.

And Sheffield, a Tampa resident, said it would be a great place for the Atlanta Braves to move their Spring Training.

Like the Dunedin Blue Jays, the Braves Spring Training lease is set to expire in 2017. Currently, the Braves train in the Walt Disney World Complex and have since 1998.

I am not sure how much pull Shef has with the Braves. Could he make this happen? Could he pull the right strings?

Admittedly, his idea has some good points. But it also has some points that have no claim on reality.

According to Sheffield,

“They (the Braves) don’t want to be second to Disney,” Sheffield told a group of business leaders recently at a Greater Wesley Chapel Chamber of Commerce economic development meeting. “The problem they are having is that the fans coming to the games there are not Braves fans. They are there for Disney, and that is a problem for them.”

In Sheffield's defense, this is understandable. Trying to link baseball to tourism is a horrible idea, unless the stadium is a destination, such as Fenway Park, Wrigley Field, or Yankee Stadium. It's not a good idea for a spring training stadium, especially when the Braves and Disney have nothing in common.

Looking at Braves spring training attendance, we can also see the Braves may be concerned. Whereas Grapefruit League attendance went up 4% last year, the Braves stayed exactly the same. Since 2006, their Spring Training average attendance per game has dropped from 9,498 to 7,490. That attendance, however, is still in the top half of attendance in the Grapefruit League.

So how much concern should there be?

Sheffield also thinks the Wesley Chapel location would be more convenient because it is located off I-75 and is a "straight shot" up to Atlanta. Ok, that's an acceptable point.

But he also thinks Braves fanbase would be better served with the near Tampa location.

“That is an easy commute for them,” Sheffield said. “All those fans could come straight here, plus go to other places like Disney and Clearwater Beach, since they would be close by. That is a possibility that is pretty much there for the taking.”

If Sheffield thinks linking the Braves to Disney is a bad idea, why does he suggest fans go can go to Disney World on their trips to see the Braves?

And how close is the fanbase?

According to the NY Times/Facebook fan survey, the Braves Florida stronghold is North Florida. South of the northern-most counties, the Braves have an over 9% fanbase along the East Coast down to Volusia County, home of Daytona. The west side of the state is predominantly Rays, Yankees, and Red Sox fans. Wouldn't the Braves be better off in a place like Daytona? Or perhaps the abandoned Cocoa Expo, the former Brevard County spring home of the Houston Astros and Miami Marlins? That is a little south of their fanbase, but it is only a few highway exits from the Nationals spring home.

The owner of the upcoming complex, James Talton also has his own pie-in-the sky notions. I'm not sure how accurate this claim this, but knowing how flimsy most economic claims are, I doubt its truthiness.

Even without a major stadium component, Talton feels his sports complex could play a role in creating 8,000 jobs in the county, and produce $318 million in annual economic impact, as well as a direct revenue stream of $9 million each year to the county government. But if the project could attract a Major League team, there’s no telling how big of an impact that would have in the Wesley Chapel area, Talton said.

Continuing to razzle and dazzle with pie-in-the-sky ideas, Talton think his complex could draw more than Steinbrenner Field, the top drawing Spring Training complex located in the middle of Tampa.

Just no. No way. Not possible.

“We would want to put in up to 12,000 seats, but that could be a little ambitious,” he said. “A lot of what we hear from the league is that they want to have no more than 8,000 seats, because they want to make sure they are filled.”

Because 8,000 is realistic.

Talton also said his facility would be quicker to create revenue than a new Rays stadium.

Creating a separate field for spring training would not be anywhere near the headache the Tampa Bay Rays are experiencing with its efforts to get out of Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. In fact, spring training fields are typically much smaller than regular season venues, Talton said, where average attendance usually holds around 6,700.

But that's exactly the problem. Adding the Braves to the area would either create new Braves fans or solidify fandom in a market the Rays really need to penetrate and capture. That would be five Spring Training complexes in the Tampa Bay area. Even if we assume most Spring Training revenue is generated from tourists, there is still a presence and a small amount of local dollars going to a team that is not the local Major League squad.

Unfortunately for the Rays, I don't think there is any recourse in using territorial rights to limit Spring Training market encroachment.

A lot has to happen before the Braves consider moving to the area, and again, I'm not sure how much pull Gary Sheffield has. But this is an idea that should be squashed before it even hatches.

(h/t to Shadow of the Stadium for finding this.)

Attendance Review: 2014 Dunedin Blue Jays

Welcome to our first 2014 attendance review and our 4th attendance review post on the Dunedin Blue Jays, minor league affiliate of the Toronto Blue Jays.

Background:

The Dunedin Blue Jays began play in the Florida State League in 1987. After three seasons playing at Grant Field, the Dunedin Blue Jays moved to Florida Exchange Stadium in 1990. Florida Exchange Stadium is also the spring training home of the Toronto Blue Jays. The current population of Dunedin is 35,444.

Dunedin Blue Jays 2014:


Home Games: 70

Total attendance:  60,044 (up 18.44% from 2013: 50,695)

Average: 896 (up 16.66% from 2013: 768)

Highest attended game: 4,173 on Friday, July 4th vs Clearwater

Lowest attended game: 296 on Friday, Aug 15th vs Brevard County

Low point of average attendance: Game 13, May 5th (802)

Double headers: 3 (May 24, June 12, Aug 11)

Cancellations: 0

Notable rehab assignments: Jose Reyes, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, JA Happ, Casey Janssen

Other notable appearances: None

Breakdown:

(red highlight = below annual average of 896)

Overall:

(Note: the blank space in the middle of June indicates the Florida State League all-star break.)

By Month:

The following graph depicts the average attendance by month.

By Day:

Blue Jays attendance decreased 11.6% on the weekends compared to their average Monday through Thursday attendance.

• Mon-Thurs average attendance: 889
• Sat-Sun average attendance: 786
• Difference: -11.6%

The following graph depicts the average attendance by day.

By Opponent:

By Starting Pitcher:

By Day/Night, Weekday/Weekend Splits:

Minor League Shuffling and the future of the Tampa Bay market

Starting on September 11, several Minor League teams have been participating in the annual "affiliation shuffle". This "shuffle" means teams, cities, and Major League parent clubs change and rearrange minor league squads from the ranks of one parent club to another. With over 160 minor league teams across the country, the "affiliation shuffle" is a usual occurrence and some Minor League websites not only look forward to it, but excel in covering it.

While many cities and towns see their local squad change parent team, and sometimes even name and uniform, the Florida State League has stayed static. At least until this year.

For the first time in several years, a Florida State League team is changing affiliation. On September 18th, the Cubs left Daytona. According to Baseball America,

Twenty-two years as Chicago’s affiliate came to an end when the Cubs bolted for Myrtle Beach (Carolina) on the first day of the affiliation shuffle on Tuesday. Daytona found an eager partner in the Reds

Of course, the Reds will eventually change the team name (perhaps something race track related?). The Reds are also no stranger to Florida, having played in Sarasota for many years and in Tampa at Al Lopez Field for many years before that.

Of the 12 Florida State League teams, 8 are owned and operated by the parent club. Only the Rookie-level Pioneer League comes to close to the FSL's ratio of parent ownership, with 6 of 10 teams in that league owned by the Major League club.

The four privately owned teams in the Florida State League are:

• Charlotte Stone Crabs (currently a Rays affiliate)
• Brevard County Manatees (currently a Brewers affiliate)
• Fort Myers Miracle (currently a Twins affiliate)
• Daytona Cubs (formerly a Cubs affiliate, now a Reds team)

While a former Tampa team moves back to Florida, the current residents of the Tampa Bay area are set for quite some time. At the present moment, all of the Tampa Bay area minor league teams are owned by their parent club. The Tampa Yankees are owned by the Yankees, the Threshers are owned by the Phillies, the Marauders are owned by the Pirates, and the Dunedin Blue Jays are owned by the Dunedin Blue Jays.

There is one date the local minor league teams do have to consider - the date the city lease expires on their stadium. Once the lease expires, teams are free to move to another location.

Currently, the Tampa Bay area Minor League stadium leases are as follows:

• Dunedin Blue Jays: 2017
• Clearwater Threshers: 2023
• Tampa Yankees: 2027
• Bradenton Marauders: 2037

The City of Dunedin and the Blue Jays are in talks and there are rumors the Blue Jays are exploring other options after the lease expires in 2017, although the Palm Beach location rumored to house two of either the Blue Jays, Nationals, or Astros is currently facing a few legal hurdles.

(Note: Both the Astros and Nationals, neither of whom have a Minor League teams in the Florida State League, have their leases expiring in 2016. If the two teams leave Kissimmee and Melbourne Viera, respectively, then the Blue Jays will have to re-sign with Dunedin or look elsewhere.)

I think the most interesting of the Tampa Bay team lease situations will be the Tampa Yankees in 2027. Because that date is so close to the end of the Rays' Tropicana Field lease, if the City of Tampa clears area for the Rays to move across the bridge, would they let the Yankees go? Would the Rays make moving the Yankees a condition in moving to Tampa? Would the Yankees willingly move?

Or would the Tampa Sports Authority try to have their cake and eat it too, balancing both the top drawing Spring Training team and a Major League team who, by the way, are division rivals? Would they keep the Rays in a crowded market?

I wouldn't be surprised if as we get closer, Rays ownership mentions this to the Tampa Sports Authority, if not in public, at least behind closed doors. The Rays might not have the ability to push the Clearwater Threshers or Bradenton Marauders out of the Tampa Bay market, but they might flex their muscles at Tampa's relationship with the Yankees.

Forcing Minor League teams to move is not without precedent. The Marlins forced the Miracle from Miami and the Florida State League Yankees from Fort Lauderdale in 1992.

Because the National League awarded an expansion team to the Miami area, the Miracle moved across the state to Fort Myers this year and the Yankees are dropping their Fort Lauderdale team next year. Both teams have played in the Class A Florida State League.

"We are prohibited from playing there because of the Marlins," (Yankees' vice president and general counsel) David Sussman said.

Something to think about for the next 10 years as we watch the local squads take on the new Daytona team and the rest of the Florida State League.

Thank You for Reading and What to Expect in the Offseason

Thank you.

This was fun.

With the conclusion of the Rays home schedule, the 2014 baseball season in Tampa Bay is over. The lights are off, the ticket booths are closed, and the grass is beginning to grow a bit longer than it has for the last six months - except in the dome, of course.

And so ends the first season of this blog.

Since March 31st, the Rays Opening Day, I tracked attendance for 361 games over 175 days. That's a hair more than 2 games a day. Even on the handful of days when there were no home games, I still posted an attendance report.

It was a lot of work. But rewarding.

This is my first solo daily blog. For those who have read my work before, I have freelanced on several other sites, but I've never written every day. It takes a lot of discipline and is a lot harder than it looks. This blog made me appreciate all the daily blogs I've read for years.

Speaking of, I definitely want to say thanks to the writers who helped promote my work on this site during the season: Rays Index, Shadow of the Stadium, DRaysBay, and Blue Bird Banter brought people to my little niche site without me sending links their way. That was very appreciated. We overlapped on some topics, but what I found most interesting was when we took the same bit of news and each found different angles to write about. Hopefully readers found that as informative as I did.

As well, I would like to thank all those who are following me on twitter, Facebook, and who have subscribed on YouTube. Thank you also for the retweets, favorites, and any other means of sharing my work. Even if you disagreed with my analysis.

This is the relaxing part of the season for me. With the Rays finishing the season on the road, I don't need to worry about average attendances, attendance per day, or what else was happening in Tampa Bay that might draw Rays fans. I can just watch the final games with a beer in my hand and my computer off.

That doesn't mean the writing is going to stop, however. Far, far from it.

Like most baseball bloggers, I am going to keep track of what's happening during the offseason. But whereas other bloggers talk about player movement, I will be analyzing any bit of business, marketing, economics, demographics, or attendance data that affects Tampa Bay baseball.

There is also still a lot of looking back to do. I need to explore the trends and patterns of attendance/economics/demographics from 2014 as well as getting back to analyzing past seasons for the Tampa Bay Minor League teams. Plus, I want to do some MLB overall attendance pattern research for Fangraphs or any other national site that will allow me to freelance. I also eventually want to get into the demographics, average incomes, and fanbase estimates of every zip code in the Tampa Bay area. And of course, an analysis of the Rays upcoming 2015 schedule and an attendance prediction.

That might not all get done before Opening Day 2015, by the way.

I like to think I added something interesting to the conversation this baseball season. Whether you visited for the Minor League attendance and marketing or most likely, for posts on the Rays attendance, demographics, attendance, and marketing, I just wanted to say thank you to everyone who read.

It was a fun season.

But the best is yet to come.

Tampa Bay Rays Attendance During University of South Florida Football Games 2007-2014

Welcome to our third post comparing Tampa Bay Rays attendance to the attendance of another Tampa Bay area sports team. This post looks at Rays home attendance at Tropicana Field while the University of South Florida Bulls football team is playing home games at Raymond James Stadium. These facilities are 21.2 miles apart according to Google Maps. Without traffic, travel between the two is approximately 27 minutes.

Since 2007, the Tampa Bay Rays and USF Bulls have played on the same day 12 times.

• 1 time in 2007
• 3 times in 2008
• 2 times in 2009
• 1 time in 2010
• 2 times in 2011
• 3 times in 2014

Of these, 2 occurred while the Rays were in the playoffs, both in 2008. Three of these games occurred on the Bulls home opener.

The following chart depicts the days the Tampa Bay Rays have played on the same day as the USF Bulls.

Highlighted blue boxes = Bulls Home Opener
Highlighted yellow boxes = Rays playoff games
D/N = Day or Night game.
"Rays Avg Annual Attendance/Day" is the Rays average attendance on that day during that year (for example: 19,452.31 is the Friday average attendance during 2007).
"% Difference" is the percentage difference between the Rays attendance during that particular game and the Rays average attendance on that day for the year.

(Click pic to enlarge.)

There are not a lot of patterns here as it is a small sample size with a lot of variables, but we can observe a few things.

The Rays have played on the same day as the Bulls 12 times. On seven of those occasions, they have had either a concert or a bobblehead promotion. Those promotions are among the Rays best promotional gimmicks. Of the remaining five, two were during the playoff run of 2008, two were against the Red Sox (one of the Rays best drawing opponents), and the last was the last Friday night game of 2014.

The 2008 playoff games played on the same day as the USF Bulls have lower attendance than the average playoff game, however, the tarped seats were not available during these games and not as many seats were available, lowering the maximum capacity at Tropicana Field. Our "Playoff Average" contains World Series games were the tarp was removed and those seats were sold.

We can also see how much attendance has dropped for both the Rays and the Bulls. On the Bulls home opener in 2008, the two teams drew over 82,000 fans. On the Bulls home opener in 2014, the two teams drew barely 49,000.

Also of note, tin 2009 and 2014, the Rays were far out of contention by mid-September. That may explain the far below average attendance numbers. Even though the Rays are eliminated, we can't positively ascertain how many fans are opting to do the USF Bulls game, as their attendance dropped as well.

It is important to remember, attendance at a Bucs or Bulls game is not an "either/or" proposition for all fans. While the fans in attendance made a choice to attend one or the other, many fans stayed home and watched both games on their TVs or went to a sports bar. These fans chose to attend neither. It can probably be assumed fans who attend neither but watch both are in the majority in the Tampa Bay area.

(Note: Although college football is hugely watched and attended statewide, it would be difficult to compose a chart determining Rays attendance during Florida State Seminoles and University of Florida Gators games. It is easier for us to assume people in the Tampa Bay area made a choice to attend a game at Tropicana Field or Raymond James Stadium then to guess how many people made a drive to Tallahassee or Gainesville.)

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 21, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Sunday, September 21, 2014:

Total Attendance: 21,270

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 81
• Attendance: 21,270
• Starting Pitcher: Nate Karns
• Opponent: Chicago White Sox
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: John Danks
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,857.59
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 20,213.33
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 22,000.92
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 21,270
• Promotions (if any): None
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): Tom Petty concert (Amalie Arena)

No other area games.

Tampa Bay Baseball Attendance - September 20, 2014

Tampa Bay baseball attendance for Saturday, September 20, 2014:

Total Attendance: 21,830

Tampa Bay Rays:

• Team Home Game #: 80
• Attendance: 21,830
• Starting Pitcher: Chris Archer
• Opponent: Chicago White Sox
• Opponent Starting Pitcher: Hector Noesi
• Avg Attendance to Date: 17,814.94
• Avg Attendance vs Opponent: 19,685
• Avg Attendance per Day of the Week: 24,320.23
• Avg Attendance for Starting Pitcher: 17,921.73
• Promotions (if any): Joe Maddon Potato Bobblehead
• Other Factors (conflicting events, etc): Experience Hendrix Concert (Clearwater). Jay Mohr comedy show (Tampa Straz Center)

No other area games.