Wednesday, August 13, 2014

Analyzing Rays attendance graphic



In an effort to celebrate the popularity of the upcoming series versus the Yankees, the Tampa Bay Rays twitter team posted an interesting graphic about attendance. Of course, those of us who track attendance knew the upcoming series would draw well. Yankees superstar Derek Jeter is nearing the end of his epic career and fans of the Yankees and fans of baseball want to see "The Captain" before he hangs up his cleats.

But while the intent of the tweet's graphic was innocent, the tweet was not the best the Rays could have done and because of that, the team left their fanbase to defend their credibility . Here is the graphic:


I have three problems with the graphic:

The tweet is cherrypicking

Here is the breakdown of regular season games the Rays have played since 2008 where attendance was over 30,000:




Notice 2008. 21-2 is an incredible record. But after 2008, the record is 31-15. Here is the Rays record since 2009 when attendance is lower than 12,500 fans:




Remove 2014 and the Rays record with attendance under 12,500 is 31-15 from 2009-2013. Exactly the same record as when attendance exceeds 30,000 from 2009-2014. While the Rays marketing team does want to celebrate a good turn-out, posting the team's record during those games is not needed because it is completely irrelevant.

The tweet invites ignorance

Besides feeding the myth that good turn-out equals a better record (it doesn't), posting the amount of games where attendance exceeds 30,000 invites questioning why the fanbase doesn't turn out to that amount more often.

To date, 15 teams are averaging over 30,000 fans per game. For those fanbases, that's the norm. That is the everyday reality for those fans. Of those 15, five have metro populations equal or lower to the Tampa Bay area:
  • Cardinals: 2.8 million
  • Rockies: 2.7 million
  • Brewers: 1.6 million
  • Reds: 2.1 million
  • Orioles: 2.8 million

We all know the issues behind the Rays attendance why you can't compare it to the attendance of the Cardinals, Rockies, and the other above listed teams. We can also strive to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges and say "weekend attendance isn't bad", etc. But making a public declaration of being what others consider average invites those comparisons. It invites people who aren't as knowledgeable of the situation to question the fanbase. And when attendance is as public as a page on ESPN.com, Rays fans are forced to be on the defensive.

There is a better stat

Instead of tweeting attendance, the Rays twitter team could have pointed to the percentage of metro population expected to attend this weekend's game. Yes, some fans could be arriving from outside the Tampa Bay metro area, but let those fans defend themselves.

"Fans, we have already sold over 30,000 seats for each of this weekend's games! That's over 1% of Tampa Bay!"

Both of those statements are facts and they are only 107 characters. Yes, it is still the same announcement and still below the average draw of the above listed teams. But now there is an extra step to attacking the fanbase.

Let trolls do the math if they want. Few would.