Here is a close-up of Florida fanbases according to Facebook:
As you can see, the Braves and Yankees have strong fanbases in Florida. There is nothing surprising about this. I explored Florida baseball fan demographics last year and concluded there are 2.3 million fans of New York baseball in Florida (~80% Yankees fans) and approximately 682,000 Braves fans in Florida.
We don't need to beat that horse any more.
But worth exploring is how this 2015 map compares to the New York Times/Facebook MLB Fanbase study from 2014. Here is that map:
These maps are quite different, but gave the same data. The 2014 study dove deeper into zip codes and provided a percentage breakdown of each county and zip. Using both maps, we can determine if the Rays "won" any counties since last year. This is similar to presidential campaigns, where the goal is to win districts, as winning a district means having a majority of the voters. Here, winning a county means having a majority of the baseball fans.
In 2014, the following 13 counties were "Rays Counties":
- Citrus
- DeSoto
- Hardee
- Hernando
- Highlands
- Hillsborough
- Leon
- Manatee
- Pasco
- Pinellas
- Polk
- Sarasota
- Wakulla
In 2015, the following 15 counties are "Rays Counties":
- Alachua
- Charlotte
- Citrus
- DeSoto
- Dixie
- Gilchrist
- Hardee
- Hernando
- Hillsborough
- Highlands
- Manatee
- Pasco
- Pinellas
- Polk
- Sarasota
From 2014 to 2015, the Rays gained a majority of fans in four counties: Alachua, Charlotte, Dixie, and Gilchrist. They lost the majority in Leon and Wakulla counties. They won Alachua, Dixie, and Gilchrist from the Yankees and Charlotte County from a Yankees/Red Sox tie. They lost Leon and Wakulla counties to the Braves.
A simple guess why the panhandle counties and Alachua switched could be the demographics of college students. In 2014, there might have been more Florida State University students who "liked" the Rays than other teams and in 2015 there might be more University of Florida Rays fans in Alachua County than before. The student bodies of the universities have a big impact on fan preference in those counties.
2016 Rays Market Goals
Looking ahead, the Rays should look to expand their fanbase. Here are three steps the Rays should take.
1) Win neighboring counties: Logical next counties to focus on would be Levy, Glades, and Sumter. The following chart depicts currently held counties and areas the Rays should try to win:
Targeting Levy County would connect the center of the Rays market with the Dixie-Gilchrist-Alachua gains. Sumter County would make inroads into North-Central Florida. According to the 2014 study, the Rays were 1% behind the Yankees in fan preference in each county.
Targeting Glades County would give the Rays a border between them and what should be the Marlins market. According to the 2014 study, the Rays were 2% behind the leading Yankees in Glades County.
2) Focus on the metro areas: The Rays should focus marketing efforts in Ocala and Orlando in Marion and Orange County, respectively. These metro areas are highly in favor of the Yankees - 24% to 12% in Marion Cty and 32% to 10% in Orange Cty - albeit possibly for different reasons.
Marion County contains a high amount of retiree communities, to include The Villages, America's fastest growing town. Fans with set rooting interests will not be easily swayed, but could buy tickets nonetheless.
Orange County, to include Orlando, is a different challenge for the Rays. As I mentioned in my demographic post, over 300,000 people of Hispanic descent live in Central Florida. Recent polling shows Florida Hispanics prefer the Yankees over the Rays by a ratio of over four-to-one (22% to 5%). While this number includes the Miami area, which is out of the Rays area, no doubt it also includes Central Florida.
The age of the Hispanic market works to the Rays advantage. Assuming new baseball fans will be born in Central Florida, with the right players and marketing effort, this area could be easier to win. But it will take a great effort by the Rays to win the statewide Hispanic market from the Yankees and the Marlins.
3) Increase the base - According to the 2014 study, the Rays strongest counties are Pinellas (56%), Hillsborough (51%), and Pasco (47%). Most teams in Major League Baseball have at least one county with 60% preference. Getting Pinellas to 60% and Pasco to 50% could be achievable goals, although the Pinellas-Hillsborough "battle" on the Rays future could hurt preference in both until the issue is settled.
The Rays and Marlins both face an uphill battle in winning Florida. Ideally, Florida would have fault lines like Kansas City and St. Louis, with fanbases for each team narrowly winning counties on the periphery of their cities. But Florida's diverse demographics has made outside influences very powerful and the job of the Rays and Marlins marketing departments very difficult.
If comparing 2014 to 2015 is any indication, the Rays are slowly winning the battle.