Think of it as a game capsule or series preview, but for the business-minded.
(For the Orioles and Yankees, I'll have this information prior to their second visit to the Trop.)
Tonight, the Rays play the Boston Red Sox at Tropicana Field for the first time in 2015. Attendance trends for Red Sox games are interesting, as the assumption is that the Red Sox fanbase, like the Yankees fanbase, "fills the Trop" whenever the team visits the Rays.
According to my demographic study last year, there are approximately 1,560,000 New Englanders in Florida. Using polling data to assume 50% are baseball fans and assuming all New Englanders are Boston Red Sox fans, we have an estimated 780,000 Red Sox fans in Florida. That's the 4th largest fanbase in Florida, trailing only the combined Rays/Marlins, the combined Yankees/Mets, and the Braves.
The following chart shows the Rays home record vs the Red Sox, average attendance at Tropicana Field when the Red Sox visit, the annual annual average, and the percentage difference between attendance versus the Red Sox and the average attendance.
Since 2007, games versus the Red Sox have drawn 22% more than the average game at Tropicana Field. Most of the draw, however, was in 2007, 2008, and 2011. Since 2012, games versus the Red Sox have averaged only 18,978 fans.
The following graph depicts the previous chart.
Here we see the average attendance in games versus the Red Sox dropped considerably, from over 33,000 in 2008 to under 17,000 in 2013. It rebounded slightly in 2014, but is still far below even 2007 standards, a year the Red Sox were World Series bound and the Rays still had the Devil in them.
Let's now look at when the Red Sox have a bigger effect: weekdays or weekends. The Rays usually have significant weekday/weekend attendance splits. Could the Red Sox have a smaller effect on weekends when more Rays fans come to the ballpark, or could they have a smaller effect on weekdays due to out-of-market Red Sox fans needing the time to travel to St Petersburg?
(Note: I define "weekdays" as Monday through Thursday, or days where the average fan is restricted in time on both sides of the game, whether by work, traffic, or a need to sleep. Weekends are defined as Friday, Saturday, and Sunday - games where fans can stay as late as possible.)
Weekdays (Mon-Thurs)
The following chart depicts how many weekday games were played as well as the average Rays attendance in games versus the Red Sox on weekdays. The far right column is the percentage difference between average attendance in Red Sox games and average attendance for the season.
In most years, the Rays play either 3 or 6 games during the week versus the Red Sox in the course of a season. The last two years have bucked the trend by having all the Red Sox games on weekdays in 2013 and all but 1 game on weekends in 2014. Before we throw out 2014's small sample size, at only 10,543 fans, that game was the lowest drawing game versus Boston since before 2007.
The following graph depicts the previous chart.
Weekends
The following chart shows how many games were played and, more importantly, Rays attendance on weekend games versus the Red Sox since 2007. Like the weekday chart, the far right column shows the percentage difference between attendance at Red Sox games and attendance for all games at Tropicana Field.
The Red Sox had a bigger effect on attendance on weekend games in 2007 and 2012.Their effect on weekday attendance was greater in 2008-2011 and 2013. In 2014, the Red Sox had no effect on attendance.
The following graph depicts the previous chart.
Weekend attendance versus the Red Sox has plummeted from an average of nearly 33,000 to not even 22,000. The "Red Sox effect" has decreased from 52% in 2007 to 0% in 2014.
While the Rays can't draw 33,000 against the Red Sox anymore due to reduced capacity at Tropicana Field, they haven't drawn over 30,000 in a game versus Boston since 2011 and haven't sold out a game versus the Red Sox since 2010.
Conclusion
The season, the Rays play nine games versus the Red Sox, six on weekends and three during the week. There will be Boston fans in attendance. There will be Rays fans in attendance. But if the patterns and trends continue, there will be less people rooting for either team than in years past.