This post is an update to last year's look at Rays attendance by day of the week.
As we did in the per month analysis, we will start with a look at the Rays annual attendance trends over the last eight years.
Now, let’s look at the per game attendance from 2007-2014. From 2007-2014, the Rays average annual attendance was 1,616,668. This includes only games at Tropicana Field. The Rays played 3 games at Disney’s Wide World of Sports in both 2007 and 2008. The Rays per game average in the 642 games at Tropicana Field from 2007 to 2014 was 20,145.
This chart depicts the annual ranking of the days of the week based on their average attendance for each respective year. Notice 2014 attendance mirrored 2012's almost identically. However, since 2007, no season has had the same pattern.
The varying average attendance per day can partly be attributed to Opening Day. As of 2015, the Rays have sold out 10 Opening Day games in a row. The following chart looks at Opening Day dates and whether that day ended above its 2007-2014 average that year.
Only in 2008 and 2009 did the day of the week of Opening Day exceed its average ranking.
The following chart shows what day the lowest attendance of the year occurred and the ranking of that day in that year.
Only once, on Monday, 2013, did the lowest attended game fall on the day with the lowest average attendance. In half the years observed, the day with the lowest attendance was below it's 2007-2014 average standing.
The following charts break down the Rays attendance per day of the week and provide thoughts on 2015 attendance.
Monday attendance from 2007 to 2014. Overall Monday average: 16,729.
Monday average attendance increased in 2014 by over 1,500 fans per game. That's the good news. The bad news is that average attendance was still 1,000 below 2012's Monday average. Monday is now tied with Tuesday as the Rays worst attended day of the week.
2015 Prediction: ~15,000 Monday average. In 2015, the Rays play eight Monday games, including two against the New York Yankees and one against the Washington Nationals. We can probably expect Monday attendance to be closer to 2012 than 2013.
Tuesday attendance from 2007 to 2014. Overall Tuesday average: 16,807.
Average attendance on Tuesday in 2014 was at the lowest level since 2007, down over 2,100 fans per game from 2013. That's not good at all.
2015 Prediction: ~15,000. The Rays play 13 games on Tuesday in 2015, including two versus the Yankees, one versus the Nationals, and one versus the Braves. Given the Yankees and Braves popularity in Florida, I expect Tuesday to see a small increase in Tuesday average attendance, possibly closer to 2012 levels.
Wednesday attendance from 2007 to 2014. Overall Wednesday average: 17,216.
After an increase in 2013, Rays average Wednesday attendance dropped 1,600 fans per game in 2014. This despite two "kids camp" games where the Rays drew over 20,000 fans.
2015 Prediction: ~15,000. I'm not predicting much off the 2014 average. This number depends greatly on whether or not the Rays host the "kids camp" promotion again. The team has 12 scheduled Wednesday games in 2015, including three day games (possibly kids days?) and two games versus the New York Yankees.
Thursday attendance from 2007 to 2014. Overall Thursday average: 17,261.
Thursdays in 2014 did not do well at all. Average attendance on Thursday dropped over 2,200 fans per game. From May 8th to the end of the season, only one Thursday game drew over 11,300 fans: David Price's return to Tropicana Field on Aug 21, which drew 19,189 fans. The lowest attended game of 2014 was also on a Thursday - 9,571 fans on April 3 vs Texas.
2015 Prediction: ~14,000. Nothing in the 2015 schedule indicates Thursdays will get better. Like 2014, there is only game scheduled against the Yankees on Thursday in 2015. There are no other high-drawing opponents on Thursday in 2015.
Friday attendance from 2007 to 2014. Overall Friday average: 19,991.
A terrible Friday average in 2013 sank the overall average, but an increase of over 2,100 fans per game on Friday in 2014 helped bring the 8-year attendance average closer to 20,000. Drawing above 20,000 should be the realistic goal for Friday baseball.
2015 Prediction: ~19,500. I'm predicting an increase of approximately 800 fans per Friday game in 2015. Although not 20,000, the Rays will see an increase due to their scheduled opponents: one game versus the Yankees, one game versus the Mets, and two games versus the Red Sox. Although the Red Sox don't have the drawing power they once did at Tropicana Field, games versus Boston should be good for 20,000 fans on a Friday.
Saturday attendance from 2007 to 2014. Overall Saturday average: 26,571.
Following the attendance drop between 2010 and 2011, Rays average Saturday attendance has been between 23,000 and 25,000. This is the reality and the foundation the front office has to work with.
2015 Prediction: ~24,000. I'm going to predict a drop of a few hundred, but this number will depend on who the Rays book for their summer concert series.
Sunday attendance from 2007 to 2014. Overall Sunday average: 24,063.
Since 2007, Rays average Sunday attendance has only been below 24,000 three times: 2007, 2011, and 2014. Average Sunday attendance dropped nearly 2,500 fans per game from 2013 to 2014 continuing a decrease started in 2012.
2015 Prediction: ~22,500. This prediction also depends on what performers the Rays schedule as part of their summer concert series. The Rays also have two games against the Red Sox, a one game each versus the Yankees and Mets scheduled. Each of those games should draw well.
Overall 2015 Prediction based on Day of the Week Predictions:
The following chart shows a 2015 Rays attendance prediction based on average day of the week attendance trends.
This prediction means Rays attendance will increase 2.24% in 2015. Much of my estimated increase is due to the Rays NL East interleague opponents, specifically the Mets, Nationals, and Braves. Games during the week versus the New York Yankees should also have an impact.
(Note: A few weeks ago, I used monthly averages to make a 2015 prediction of 1,489,000. Using day averages, my predictions differ by only 7,000 total fans.)
As long as the Rays popularity in the state is what it is, as long as there are millions of fans with out-of-town loyalties, and as long as casual fans have other baseball options on which to spend their money, the Rays will have to continue to rely on out-of-town fans to fill the seats of Tropicana Field. And as long as the Rays home field remains outside the 30-minute radius of the majority of the population of Tampa Bay, the Rays will continue to struggle drawing fans Monday through Thursday.