Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Worrying about Yankees vs Rays attendance and a City Council Effect

On Monday, two local articles discussed the low turnout for the Yankees versus Rays series last weekend. Both Charlie Frago of the Tampa Bay Times and Gary Shelton of St. Petersblog looked at the unusually low attendance and asked the same question: Could attendance be impacted by the situation surrounding Tropicana Field and the Rays desire to explore different locations?

Before we get into how to determine that answer, let's look at how current attendance matches up with past trends. (Caution: We are drifting into the attendance equivalent of small sample size.)

Prior to the season, I predicted April attendance will be less than 20,000 per game. My thought was April's turnout will be better than 2011, when the average was 17,376 but probably not better than 2014, when attendance was 19,822 per game. With the Lightning in the playoffs and many new faces on the Rays roster, there is no incentive yet for casual fans to get attached to this team.

So far, seven games in, with five games remaining in April, attendance is averaging 18,742 per game. Which is almost exactly between the 2011 and 2014 numbers. We are not in unknown territory.

Both Frago and Shelton discussed the effect of the Yankees on attendance. Yes, with millions of Yankees fans in Florida, we are accustomed to seeing above average attendance for games against the Bronx Bombers at Tropicana Field. And yes, Friday's attendance was the lowest Friday attendance versus the Yankees in over 12 years.

Saturday wasn't much better.


And with 21,791 at the Trop, Sunday was also a post-Devil Rays low.

However, as Frago discussed but Shelton did not, Rays average per game attendance ended the weekend above its 2014 Game 6 average. Even after a turnout of 14,307 versus the Red Sox Tuesday night, average attendance is still higher than 2014, albeit by only 200 fans (18,742 to 18,539).

So no, Gary Shelton, the "lousy attendance you’ve heard so much about at Tropicana Field" is NOT getting worse. But great job espousing a false narrative.

Frago's article was definitely more well-rounded as instead of pointing blame completely on an unknown new City Council effect, he mentioned the concurrent Lightning playoff games, the Jimmy Buffett concert, and the idea that the Yankees might not be as popular in Florida since Derek Jeter and others retired.

(That final point is debatable since Yankees spring training attendance in Tampa was nearly identical to years prior.)

Neither, however, mentioned the 16,663 fans who attended baseball games in Clearwater and Bradenton over the weekend.

Fortunately for the Rays, there is a saving grace to a poorly attended series against the Yankees. To quote Yoda when Ben Kenobi lamented Luke Skywalker's rash decision to face Darth Vader in Empire Strikes Back, "there is another".

The New York Mets come to town this year. While not as popular as the Yankees, there are many Mets fans in Florida and the Mets may draw enough above the attendance of last year's NL Central opponents to make up for poor attendance during a Yankees series. Especially if Matt Harvey pitches.

Attendance is not a sprint, it is a marathon.

Now, back to the question of the City Council's affect on Rays attendance.

In Frago's article, he quotes the St. Pete mayor's spokesman saying politics does not have an effect on attendance. In Shelton's article, Shelton believes politics may be a cause. Fortunately, there is a way to determine validity.

Polling.

The theses of both articles could be proven or disproven by cold-calling Tampa Bay residents, asking questions, and compiling data. Granted, articles under deadlines don't have the luxury of doing marketing research before editors need their content. But newspapers and other media conduct polls often. Maybe the Tampa Bay Times can conduct a poll to answer some of these questions.

We can only hope the Rays have their own marketing data giving them insight we don't have. Maybe they have relationships with local marketing companies and these companies are polling residents and providing information.

If I was selling a product, I would want to know what my customers thought.

Either way, we should not overreact. Early season trends mean little.

Unless you are Grant Balfour.
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